The Chosen One by Nancy OhanianIf he ever really was, Trump isn't popular in the Midwest ant longer. According to Morning Consult's state approval stats, the bulk of the region's electoral votes are likely to flow to his Democratic opponent. He's underwater in all of the big states but deep red Indiana and Missouri.
• Illinois (20)- minus 19• Ohio (18)- minus 6• Michigan (16)- minus 11• Indiana (11)- plus 5• Wisconsin (10)- minus 14• Minnesota (10)- minus 14• Missouri (10)- plus 6• Iowa (6)- minus 11• Kansas (6)- plus 5• Nebraska (5)- minus 1
In 2016, these 10 states gave Trump 82 electoral votes while Hillary only won 30. The Morning Consult polling indicates that if the election were held today, Trump could expect 27 electoral votes , while 85 would go to his Democratic opponent. A reversal +3... actually plus 4, since Nebraska's second district would give the Democrat an electoral vote, one less for Trump. So the real score would be Democrat 86, Trumpanzee 26.Minnesota is bolded for a reason, by the way. The state, which Trump lost narrowly, has been anti-Trump territory pretty much for his entire bumbling stay in the White House. Let's track it.
• January 2017- plus 3• April 2017- minus 9• July 2017- minus 11• October 2017- minus 15• December 2017- minus 20• January 2018- minus 14• April 2018- minus 18• July 2018- minus 14• October 2018- minus 15• December 2018- minus 14• January 2019- minus 19• April 2019- minus 13• July 2019- minus 14
Yesterday Alex Isenstadt took a deeper dive after the Trump campaign announced they would flip Minnesota from blue to red-- with the help of ex-Congressman Jason Lewis. Lewis is running for senator against Tina Smith, who defeated her 2018 GOP opponent by a smidge over 10 points. Meanwhile, Lewis lost his suburban congressional district south of Minneapolis and St Paul 177,958 (52.8%) to 159,344 (47.2%) to a weak Democratic opponent, Angie Craig. Lewis is a former Hate Talk Radio host, often referred too as "mini-Trump." Two of Trump's top political lieutenants, Bill Stepien and Justin Clark, will help guide Lewis' campaign. Isendstadt wrote that Trump is obsessed with Minnesota because he only lost it by a point and a half. The state hasn’t gone for a Republican presidential candidate since 1972. He also points out that Lewis "has embraced Trump’s smash-mouth style as he rails against political correctness. He’s hinted that he’ll run as a Trump foot soldier, recently telling a Minnesota news outlet that 'I don’t think it pays to run away from a Trump presidency.'" That worked out badly for him last year.
Trump’s narrow loss in Minnesota, Stepien noted, was the closest any Republican presidential hopeful came to winning Minnesota since 1984.“Most importantly, the 2016 results revealed a previously concealed pathway to statewide victory in 2020,” he added.Republicans concede their odds are long in Minnesota: They haven’t won a statewide race in there since 2006. They acknowledge Trump has done little to repair his standing with suburban voters who remain a key part of the electorate, and Lewis comes to the race with baggage.As a radio talk show host from 2009 to 2014, he complained that women can no longer be called “sluts” and described people on governmental assistance as “parasites,” among other incendiary remarks.Lewis has said it was his job as a radio host to be provocative. He lost reelection to his suburban Twin Cities seat in 2018 after a single term. The Democratic incumbent, Sen. Tina Smith, was appointed to the seat after Al Franken resigned. She subsequently won a special election in 2018.Trump has made clear he thinks Minnesota is within reach. The president mentioned the state during a recent White House gathering with congressional leaders and top party strategists. He wrote on Twitter last month that he “almost won Minnesota” in 2016 and predicted 2020 would be different.The national party has been pouring resources into the state. The Republican National Committee has nearly a dozen full-time staffers in Minnesota. By comparison, the party had just one full-time staffer in the state in 2016, and that aide was diverted to another battleground before Election Day....The Minnesota offensive is part of a broader Republican foray into blue states. Republicans enjoy a massive financial advantage over Democrats, and by playing in places like Minnesota, New Hampshire, and New Mexico they hope to force Democrats to spend resources on liberal-leaning states as opposed to more competitive battlegrounds.During a presentation to major donors in Jackson Hole, Wyo., earlier this week, senior White House adviser Jared Kushner highlighted the Trump campaign’s organizational and financial advantages and spoke about its efforts to expand the map into states the president lost in 2016. He specifically mentioned the number of staffers the campaign has deployed to Minnesota, according to one attendee.Republicans are also zeroing in on a Democratic-held House seat in the conservative western part of the state. Senior party officials have been trying to recruit former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach to run against Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson. [So long as it doesn't cost them their large majority, Democrats would be much better off without Peterson, a GOP-backing Blue Dog, in the House.]Lewis’ allies have been talking up his prospects. Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-ND), who has been informally advising the former congressman, said he recently told National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman Todd Young that a major Trump investment in Minnesota could turn Lewis into a serious contender.While the contest wouldn’t start out as a top-tier pickup opportunity for the GOP, Cramer said in an interview, it could well become one down the line.“It could be a sleeper,” he said.Democrats are bound to link Lewis to Trump, a strategy the party used with success in 2018. But those close to the former congressman say his willingness to embrace the president could be an advantage.Mike Lindell, a major GOP donor and Lewis ally who hails from the state, noted that during the 2018 campaign then-GOP Rep. Erik Paulsen’s aired TV ads in which he distanced himself from the president. Paulsen went on to lose the race for the suburban Twin Cities seat.“If you distance yourself,” said Lindell, founder of pillow company My Pillow, “you’re going to lose.”
But, if you don't distance yourself from Trump you're going to lose even bigger. Minnesota freshmen Republicans Jim Hagedorn and Pete Stauber are both in precarious situations and it's Trump presence at the top of the ticket that will be what could sink their chances.
