YR FIRED! by Nancy Ohanian Biden, you've no doubt read today, won more votes than any presidential candidate in history. Conservative"safeguards" keep that from determining if winners can take office or not. To win the electoral college vote, Biden's task is to win all the Hillary states and then to flip 3 traditional blue states she botched, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Other states Trump won looked alluring-- particularly Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Iowa, + NE-02 and ME-02 (each with one electoral vote) and maybe even Texas, though that was always fool's gold. It looks like Biden managed to win all the Hillary states with only Nevada hanging in the balance. Official results won't be released until tomorrow when mail ballots received yesterday, provisional ballots and mail ballots coming in today are counted. Right now Biden leads with 588,252 (49.3%) to 580,605 (48.7%). In 2016 Washoe County (Reno) went 46.4% (97,032) to 45.2% (94,529) for Hillary. This year Washoe was much friendlier to Biden and with 89% of their vote counted, he has 117,699 (50.8%) to Trump's 107,925 (46.6%). So far (84% of the vote counted) Clark County is more of a mixed bag than it was in 2016. Hillary won it with 401,068 (52.4%) to Trump's 319,571 votes (41.8%). So far Biden has 422,762 votes (52.9%) and Trump has 362,573 (45.4%). The rest of the state is a crazy red hellhole, but not many people live there. In terms of the states Hillary lost, Biden is looking good in:
• Wisconsin (99% counted)-- 1,630,389 (49.4%) for Biden and 1,609,879 (48.8%) for Trump• Michigan (94% counted)-- 2,622,108 (49.6%) for Biden and 2,577,192 (48.7%) for Trump with most of the outstanding votes in blue areas (Wayne and Kalamazoo counties) and Trump only likely to get any significant increase in one county, Kent (Grand Rapids).• Pennsylvania (80% counted)-- 3,063,634 (53.4%) for Trump and 2,599,924 (45.3%) for Biden. But the outstanding votes are blue votes-- lots of them. Only 61.5% of Philly has been counted, 72.8% of Alleghany (Pittsburgh) and 73.7% of Delaware County. That should be enough votes for Biden to catch up and win Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes.
Meanwhile, Biden is ahead in Arizona (with 86% of the vote counted)-- 1,410,977 (51%) to 1,317,468 (47.6%), so that's 11 electoral votes and he won NE-02 (but probably lost ME-02). North Carolina and Georgia are still too close to call. But even if Biden loses both states and ME-02 (which is how I configured this map), he still wins the electoral college 290 to 248. Pennsylvania sure is important this time! Public Opinion Strategies is a Republican Party polling firm. Yesterday they conducted two national surveys of people who had already voted (1,600 people combined). These were their main conclusions:
• Trump won the 30% who voted on Election Day by 26 points (59% for Trump/33% for Biden). • Late deciders broke heavily towards Trump. Among voters who decided in October or later (11% of the electorate), Trump won by 16 points (51% Trump/35% Biden/14% third party candidate). • Trump continued to enjoy crushing margins among non-college white men (67% Trump/27% Biden). • Biden won seniors, but by just one point (48% Trump/49% Biden). • There were more "shy Trump voters" than "shy Biden voters." 19% of Trump voters said they kept their support for Trump a secret from most of their friends, compared to just 8% of Biden voters.
