In the first part of this post I had images of eggs piled in one basket.Which is generally a no/no in investing and other conditions that require diversification.Don’t Put All your Eggs in One Basket : This is a piece of advice which means that one should not concentrate all efforts/time and/or resources in one area as one could lose everything. EverythingCommon sense in life. In investing. And common sense in geopolitics. Yet, I`m suddenly expected to believe that what occurred in Kirkuk, Iraq is a bellwethersuggesting the failure of a Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0. To believe that, unconditionally, would be folly on my part. Perhaps it is an indicator of that possibility? But, most probably it is not! In Part 1 of this report we covered intra Kurdish conflict- Both as it pertains to this latest episode in Kirkuk and some past history regarding this phenomena
"Reports of My Death Are Greatly Exaggerated " is a statement that has been incorrectly attributed to Mark Twain. It also remains a standard Trope- So it's a concept that's well wired into our psyche. To possibly want to believe exaggerated news? I don't know? Just thinking aloud.That all said reports of the death of Greater/Independent/Israel 2.0 Kurdistan are greatly exaggerated. To believe that what occurred in Kirkuk signals the end of Kurdistan/Greater/Independent, also known as Israel 2.0, is choosing to ignore the complexity of the Kurdish reality. While turning a blind eye the very obvious fact that the US and Israel would have very sensibly UTILIZED Kurds affiliated with the PKK. The KDP. The PUK. And other Kurdish militia/ war lord militants. For the simple reason that the US/Israeli string pullers & others of their kind: planners/strategists who game (a procedure or strategy for gaining an end) these situations would be expected to play multiple angles and employ numerous tactics using a variety of players. Understanding these basic concepts is the reason, entirely, for my writing these posts employing the headlines stating reports of Kurdistan's death are greatly exaggerated!And an exchange of comments for background:
PennyOctober 16, 2017 at 4:48 PMWay to early to even suggest the Kurdistan project is over..The problem with b's thesis is the assumption that Barzani is the only Kurdish faction with ties to Israel and the US.." The leading Barzani clan and his KDP party, long associated with Israel..."As if Israel or the US would play just one Kurdish faction and that's it!Considering the decades and decades of utilizing multiple Kurdish factions- It doesn't work for mePlainly speaking: No way was the KDP the only egg in US/Israeli basket
AnonymousOctober 17, 2017 at 11:07 AMBut see the MOA article - No US support. Right now it seems Pehsmerga are collapsing everywhere. Don't disagree it is hell there for millions thanks to the US and the terrorists but there ain't gonna be a Kurdistan, that's my point.
In the previous post (relinked above) I addressed the reality of the Peshmerga. Each war lord has his own- They are not like a national army at all- So what/whose Peshmerga would be collapsing? Turned out it was the PUK version of the peshmergaSome recent news on the situation:Link
“Masoud Barzani on Tuesday blamed the withdrawal from Kirkuk a day earlier on "certain individuals in certain political parties." He did not acknowledge the withdrawal of Kurdish forces from parts of northern and eastern Iraq on Tuesday.
The office of the Kurdish forces accused the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan party, archrivals of Barzani, of "treason" for colluding with central government to hand over the city.”
Claims of lack of US interest:
“Aside from the incident on the early morning hours on the 16th of October south of Kirkuk that we assess as a miscommunication between Iraqi security forces and a Kurdish checkpoint, there have been no further reports of armed combat or conflict between the two groups,” US Army Col. Ryan Dillon told Pentagon reporters on Tuesday.
“What we have seen is a peaceful handover of areas around Kirkuk, specifically the K1 airfield… we did have troops there,” said Dillon. “What happened was the counter-terrorism service showed up and it was a coordinated effort between the Iraqi security forces and Kurdish security forces. They handed over the keys – if you will – of this installation and it was the Iraqi security forces that began to take security of that area again.”
Yup, the US was all good, even having troops present, but they don't care? They're just standing aside letting the cards fall where they may? Really? I'm supposed to believe the Iranian Guard was present and the US is ok with that? That's not working for me!No US support to Barzani's militia- Agreed. More obviously a betrayal of Barzani and his clan.That's not surprising to me and has in fact been written about on numerous previous occasions. End of Kurdistan? Maybe of the Iraqi autonomous zone? To my mind Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 is still the goal.Odd, wouldn't you say?Immediately after the Kirkuk incident one of those "suspicious deaths" occurredOnes that feel as if they've happened at just the right time for some unknown reason
Kurdish MP dies in car accident on Erbil-Kirkuk highway
A Kurdish MP and head of his party’s faction has died of injuries sustained in a car accident on the Erbil-Kirkuk highway while he was returning to the capital from Kirkuk.Shawn Qaladzai, a senior member of the Kurdistan Islamic Movement (KIM) and head of its faction in the Kurdistan parliament, died in an Erbil hospital on Tuesday, KIM member Abdullah Warti confirmed to Rudaw.“Today at 4pm, Shawn Qaladzai, head of the Kurdistan Islamic Movement faction in the Kurdistan parliament died,” Warti said. Qaladzai had visited Kirkuk on Monday after clashes erupted between Peshmerga and Iraqi forces. The city quickly fell to Baghdad after the Peshmerga withdrew.Qaladzai, 51, held a PhD in history.
Now it's Flashback time : The end of Barzani has been coming for a while. I read it in the tea leaves....October 2015: PKK Challenges Barzani in Iraq- One ring to rule them all?That post ended with this observation:
"It appears that the PKK is the 'unifying' force amongst the Kurds- I didn't say the agreed upon unifying force- Rather, the unifying FORCE, needed by NATO to create a Kurdish 'state'Whether or not the Kurdish population itself really wants one."
May 2016: Bye Bye Barzani. Hello, Israel 2.0 aka Kurdistan
"Recall my prediction that Barzani will likely be out of power by years end?The news of Gorran leader coming back to Iraq, just a short time ago, made clear the end was near"
Admittedly I thought Barzani would be gone by now, I had given him till years end, 2016, or until early 2017. He's lasted longer then thought- But, his end time is drawing nearer.Flashback: The end of Iraq is Nigh: Gorran Leader Nashirwin Mustafa returns from London
SULAIMANI, Kurdistan region ‘Iraq’,— Change Movement (Gorran) head Nawshirwan Mustafa arrived in Sulaimani International Airport in Iraqi Kurdistan on Thursday after seven months in Europe. (Europe? How about London)Gorran Politburo member Aso Mahmud said the Gorran leader’s return would affect the political situation in the Kurdistan Region.
You'll notice the leader of Gorran emerged from the region controlled by the PUK? * Kurdish Gorran Party & London, England- What is the connection?
Five months ago Nawshirwan Mustafa, general organizer of the Change Movement (Gorran) party in Kurdistan, left Iraq for London under the pretext of receiving medical treatment for chronic back pain. His extended stay has puzzled not only his rivals, but also his supporters. Silence over Mustafa’s condition, as well as Kurdistan’s worsening situation, is generating significant discussion about his political future in the region. Optimists in Mustafa’s camp are romanticizing a return in which he rallies the masses to protest and unseat the ruling Kurds.
I hate associating beautiful eggs with terrorists- but if the metaphor makes the point, it's worth itIgnore the inter- kurdish fighting at your own peril. But don't assume their constant bickering means the bigger goal has been forgotten. The US & Israel have options. They have ways to manipulate and game this situation. In my soon to come post I'll make the case from another angle that the goal of Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 is not off the table A hint: U.S.-backed campaign against IS in eastern Syria to speed up: SDF militiaIf Greater Kurdistan aka Israel 2.0 was off the table- there wouldn't be news reports like the link directly above- and copied below:
A U.S.-backed campaign against Islamic State in eastern Syria will accelerate now the jihadist group has been defeated in its former capital Raqqa, a spokesman for U.S.-allied Syrian militias said on Wednesday.
The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which announced the defeat at Raqqa on Tuesday, will redeploy fighters from the city to frontlines with Islamic State in the eastern province of Deir al-Zor, Talal Silo told Reuters by telephone.