BetOnline.ag was established in 2004 and is now one of the largest online sportsbooks in the world. Sports is there thing but they take bets on politics as well and report what people are actually betting on candidates at what the odds are in presidential races. As this point in the cycle their numbers jump around from day to day. The implied probability, according to bets, of each candidate becoming president after the 2020 election, last week, were, on the Republican side, 40% for Trump, 5.88% for Pence, 2.44% for Paul Ryan and 0.99% for Ivanka. (Orrin Hatch, who is too old and senile to continue on as a senator and is retiring has a 1.96% probability, slightly higher than John Kasich's 1.49%.) Completely silly (beside Ivanka):
• Rand Paul- 0.99%• Marco Rubio- 0.79%• Ted Cruz- 0.79%• Kanye West- 0.66%• Steve Bannon- 0.66%
Among Democrats, the numbers were basically... absurd. These are the top dozen in order of implied probability:
• Kamala Harris- 9.09%• Bernie- 6.67%• Joe Biden- 5.88%• Elizabeth Warren- 4.76%• Cory Booker- 3.85%• Kirsten Gillibrand- 3.85%• Bob Iger- 2.94%• Howard Schultz- 2.94%• Oprah Winfrey- 2.94%• Tom Steyer- 2.94%• Andrew Cuomo- 2.44%• Michelle Obama- 2.44%
And even sillier: Hillary Clinton at 1.49, Leonardo DiCaprio at 0.99%, Terry McAuliffe at 0.99% and Bill Gates and Stephen Colbert, each at 0.66%. No Michael Avenatti on the list? Odd.One guy not on anyone's list of likely presidents is one of Congress' very few millennials, Matt Gaetz II, a far right Trumpist from Florida's panhandle. Matt's a notorious and hypocritical closet case with a rich daddy who has underwritten his political career. Our friends at the Official Moon Base Party reminded us that the over-fed Mr. Gaetz introduced legislation to abolish the EPA. These Moon Base folks are so cynical: "After college, Gaetz went to work at as an attorney for Keefe, Anchors, and Gordon. He spent most of this time driving badly. At the age of 32, Matt had 16 traffic tickets, including driving 60 mph in a 35 mph zone on Christmas Day. In 2008, Gaetz was arrested for driving his dad’s BMW while intoxicated and refusing a breathalyzer test. He was arrested, his licensed was revoked, and he served a three month jail sentence. Just kidding! His arresting officer was forced to resign, video tape of his arrest and detainment were destroyed, and the case was dropped." Although Gaetz has two Republican opponents in the primary Tuesday, he's expected to win handily. As of August 8th's FEC reporting deadline he had spent $526,456 on the race while both Republicans had spent $160,925 combined (most of it self-funded). His likely Democratic opponent, Phil Ehr, a Republican-lite retired U.S. Navy officer, has raised $159,204 to Gaetz's $890,248.When Florida House Speaker Ray Sansom was forced to resign from the state legislature on eye-popping corruption charges, Gaetz ran for his seat in the grotesquely Republican district, won and "immediately set to work fighting for the little guy. In 2010, he started a long battle to remove ethanol mandates on gasoline. He did not cite gasoline costs; he just seemed to think the regulation was unnecessary. In 2013, he sponsored a bill to speed up executions of inmates on death row. When faced with opposition from Democrats, Gaetz fired back saying, 'Only God can judge-- but we can sure set up the meeting.' Stone cold! He would later co-sponsor classic Republican-themed legislation like restricting abortion access, outlawing abortion unless continuing the pregnancy would kill the mother, and allowing guns on college campuses. In 2014, he cited his previous DUI arrest for supporting a bill that would prohibit mugshots from being published online. In 2016, he sponsored a tax provision which conveniently helped a super PAC donor (donation: $25,000) with a multi-million dollar housing project. He pushed for less regulations on online fantasy sports-related gambling in Florida that had nothing to do with $10,000 in donations from the Fantasy Sports Trade Association... Former NRA president and current NRA lobbyist Marion Hammer called Gaetz 'one of the most pro-gun members to have ever served in the Florida Legislature.' Gaetz believes the right to openly carry a gun is 'granted not by government but by God.'"
In 2016, when US Representative Jeff Miller decided not to run for reelection, Gaetz decided it was time to play in the big leagues. He stepped down from running two political action committees (PACs), and three days later he announced he would run for Miller’s seat. Three months later, those two PACs gave all of their funds to a super PAC supporting Gaetz’s election bid. It was as hard-fought primary against an assortment of Republican candidates including the one who bullied another candidate over voicemail, the one who lied about his place of residence, and that one who raffled off an AR-15 for Facebook likes. Gaetz won the primarily and then easily won the general election in the largely Republican district.Now Gaetz is in the national spotlight. The freshman legislator immediately set to work crafting his legislative magnum opus. He worked tirelessly for days to craft a bill that reads “The Environmental Protection Agency shall terminate on December 31, 2018.” That is all of it. That is the full bill. Citing statistics from conservative think-tanks, Gaetz charges that the EPA is too burdensome for small business and must be completely eliminated. Instead, Gaetz argues that each state should handle its own environmental regulations. This move is actually better in the long run and has absolutely nothing to do with campaign contributions from “family friends” Harness Oil & Ga, Inc ($100,000), Smith Energy ($10,800), Gulf Power ($3,000), NextEra Energy ($6,000), Southern Company ($8,750), or Koch Industries ($5,000). This move by Gaetz has angered many of his very own constituents given that they 1) live in Florida where people put a high value on local beaches and coastal waters, 2) personally saw the damage from the BP Deepwater Horizon oil spill, and 3) already have the lowest quality drinking water in the United States (this ranking is contested by the local water utility despite recent setbacks).But Gaetz is just getting warmed up! He has co-sponsored bills to abolish the Department of Education, pull America out of the United Nations, repeal the death tax (which effects about 0.2% of the richest Americans), terminate the current tax code and replace it with a Fair Tax system, punish any country that does not take back immigrants deported from our country, and a bunch of other amazing ideas. He has voted for bills that remove regulations on teacher certification programs, coal mining operations near streams and groundwater, energy companies disclosing payments to foreign governments, and even more amazing ideas. Somewhat ironically, Gaetz also co-sponsored a bill to amend the Oil Pollution Act of 1990 to penalize any foreign offshore oil refineries for spills or other damages. Go get’em Gaetz!...The future looks bright for this freshman legislator. He markets himself as the most conservative candidate around, and in his largely Republican district, he is likely to keep his spot for a long time. Locals seem to love the guy and are willing to bring guns to rallies to defend him from protestors.As you probably guessed, Gaetz is a big fanboy of Donald Trump. Despite statements that he does “not agree with President Trump on every issue,” he so far has a 100% alignment with Donald Trump’s policies and is projected to not diverge. Gaetz is paranoid of illegal immigrants and Muslim terrorists. He has opposed Obama’s sanctions on Russia, wants to end probes into the Trump administration’s connections with Russia, and is a big supporter of Jeff Sessions. When Trump had a campaign rally in Melbourne, FL, Gaetz was there to gleefully introduce him. Matt Gaetz aspires to be the Robin to Donald Trump’s Batman.Like Trump, Gaetz spends a lot of time on social media. He regularly posts retorts against his attackers on Twitter. Gaetz has used the platform to trash talk other state representatives after they tried to get him and fellow Republicans back to work when they unconstitutionally adjourned early. Gaetz has also attacked people who refuse to stand for the national anthem by asserting that not standing is an insult to deceased baseball pitcher Jose Fernadez. And if the online, trash-talking gets too rough, his sassy sister can step in. As of this writing, he has not updated his LinkedIn profile, but then again, who are we to judge...Is He Gay?We end with perhaps the most important question of all: is the district’s most eligible bachelor actually gay? There are some accusations that he leads a “reputed alternate gay life style,” but there is no actual evidence of this... Matt is 34, he is a wealthy attorney, he has never been married, and he has no kids....Gaetz belongs to a family of politicians, has a suspicious DUI arrest, opposes most government regulations, gets an ego-boost from attacking political opponents and dissenting constituents on Twitter, and takes money from wealthy donors and special interest groups in exchange for political favors. He is one embezzlement scandal short of a Florida politics grand slam, and folks, he is just getting started. Expect to see a lot more Gaetz action in the coming years.
