G. Elliott Morris, a data journalist for The Economist who covers their polls, wrote that the new national polling of the Democrats' primary elections in 2020 from YouGov shows some significant movement in the last month-- primarily away from Biden and towards Bernie. In parentheses are the changes among Democratic primary voters from last month:
• Status Quo Joe: 22% (-3)• Bernie: 19 (+6)• Elizabeth Warren: 17 (-1)• Kamala: 8 (-1)• Mayo Pete: 7 (+1)• Beto: 3 (+1)
Wednesday morning, Chuck Todd and team wrote something for NBC News that we have mostly all figured out already. "It’s Year 3 of Donald Trump’s presidency, and his behavior in office isn’t getting better. Instead, it’s getting worse... This is no way to run a country... Everyone who works in Washington knows this. Staff members at the White House know this. Top officials inside the Republican Party know this. Yet here we are."One reason he's getting worse? He's been told a recession is inevitable and he fears what that will do to his already cratered and cratering electability. James Hohmann wrote for the Washington Post yesterday that Trump's constant flow of "erratic, contradictory pronouncements induce whiplash. They’re also de rigueur in this administration. This is a feature, not a bug, of Trumpism. During his first 928 days in office, Trump made more than 12,000 demonstrably false or misleading claims. Our Fact Checker has documented them in a database… There are dozens of separate examples of the president’s spokespeople-- predating Gidley and Grisham-- saying something adamantly, only to have the president cut their legs out from under them later in the day. Why would you take anything they or the president say at face value? This behavior is riskier in challenging economic times. When the business cycle turns, the wherewithal of our system depends on people having as much confidence and certainty as possible. Trump and his White House flacks inspire neither feelings of confidence nor certainty. Trump’s penchant for contradicting himself and his aides, as well as changing his mind hastily, which together fuel the credibility gap, would be problematic in a financial crisis. Investors want a steady hand on the ship of state’s tiller. That’s how you prevent runs on the banks, freefalls in the stock market and freezes in business investment."Yesterday, the Wall Street Journal Kate Davidson had more economic news for Trump that would further unhinge him, that his reckless, irresponsible policies are causing deficits to rise faster and deeper than anyone expected. "The agency increased its forecasts for deficits over the next decade by $809 billion, to $12.2 trillion, in updated budget projections released Wednesday. The increase primarily reflects higher federal spending under the new budget deal, partly offset by lower projected interest rates. CBO said the new agreement, which increased spending roughly $320 billion over the next two years above previously enacted spending caps, will add roughly $1.7 trillion to deficits between 2020 and 2029. That reflects CBO’s assumption that federal spending will continue to grow at the rate of inflation after 2021... Overall, CBO said government debt as a share of the economy is expected to rise from 79% this year to 95% in 2029-- up from 92% when the agency released its 10-year forecasts in May." Trump was looking for the Greenland purchase to be his legacy, not this.
“The nation’s fiscal outlook is challenging,” CBO Director Phillip Swagel said. “To put it on a sustainable course, lawmakers will have to make significant changes to tax and spending policies-- making revenues larger than they would be under current law, reducing spending below projected accounts, or adopting some combination of those approaches.”Lawmakers have shown little appetite, however, for reining in federal spending or raising taxes, and investors are unfazed by the government red ink.The latest projections come as White House officials are considering potential stimulus measures that would help cushion the U.S. economy from a potential downturn but would likely add billions more to government debt.Risks of a deepening economic downturn appear to be rising abroad and could be spreading to the U.S. economy....[D]eficits as a share of the economy have been rising in recent years despite an uptick in economic output, and annual deficits are on track to eclipse $1 trillion in fiscal 2019, which ends Sept. 30. Although government receipts have begun to pick up 18 months after the 2017 tax cuts took effect, they haven’t kept pace with rising federal spending or broader economic growth.The Treasury Department said last month it expects to borrow more than $1 trillion for the second year in a row.
And that ain't all-- on every foreign policy front he's been equally undependable and... well... deplorable. Yesterday, reported Nikolaj Skydsgaard for Reuters, "Danes voiced shock and disbelief" when Trump cancelled his state visit to their country after his absurd proposal to take over Greenland was turned down flat. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen, a center-left Social Democrat was defended across the entire Danish political spectrum, even by the Trumpest neo-fascist People's Party. Another opposition party leader, Morten Ostergaard, of the conservative Social Liberal Party said Trump's behavior "shows why we now more than ever should consider (fellow) European Union countries as our closest allies. The man is unpredictable. Reality surpasses imagination."Democratic voters who are looking for a real antidote to Trumpism are increasingly turning to Bernie. He's running on a platform that would require the wealthy to start paying their fair share-- which is extremely popular-- and to stop wasting money on ineffective policies and expensive vanity projects that defines Trump's 3 years in office. Bernie's plans are the real pro-growth kinds of investments-- in education, health, infrastructure, housing, etc-- that build a strong and more equitable country. That 6 point uptick is not just some kind of quirk.
