How Turkey’s Move Into Syria Affects Israel: Israel Is Concerned about Israel 2.0

I noticed shortly after Turkey's move into northern Syria, Israeli media contained several articles expressing concern...Jerusalem Post was so concerned they had 2 articles in short order on the topic:1- How Turkey's Move Into Syria Affects Israel2- Behind the Lines: Ankara's Next MoveAnd unlike the limited hangout msm and alt media in NATO land, Israeli media openly admits YPG and PKK are connected. Readers here are already aware of that connectionFlashback!  Patrick Cockburn: Connects PYD/YPG to PKK

 From article # 2: "The Syrian Kurdish YPG is closely associated with the PKK. A further advance by the SDF would mean the entirety of an international border falling into the hands of a hostile insurgent organization from a Turkish point of view" (SDF almost entirely YPG/PKK)

 "The US stance toward the Turkish move is perhaps most interesting of all. The Americans were apprised of an upcoming Turkish incursion. But the entry into Syria was earlier and on a larger scale than had been expected"

 So, the US had an idea that Turkey was going to move, but, they didn't have the entire picture.I had serious doubts about the claims of ceasefire from last week- so I'll pass those by.Kurds claimed there was a ceasefire. Turkey denied the claims. And the fighting kept going which suggested no ceasefire. Everything in that entire region affects Israel or is affected by Israel.

From article #1: " Israel, of course, is carefully watching Turkey’s moves inside Syria – codenamed Operation Euphrates Shield – knowing full well that what starts as a relatively minor incursion in northern Syria can have major ramifications for the region and for Jerusalem.Eran Lerman, who served from 2009 to 2015 as deputy for foreign policy and international affairs at the National Security Council, said the Turkish incursion impacts on Israel in a number of ways.“First of all, it greatly limits the ability of Turkey to court any more trouble than it already has,” said Lerman, today a faculty member at the Shalem Academic Center in Jerusalem and a fellow at the Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies at Bar-Ilan University. “Their deepening involvement in Syria cements their interest in bringing down the number of conflicts they can be engaged in.”In other words, the Turks now have a vested interest in restraining Hamas, with whom it has close links, so that events in Gaza do not pose additional dilemmas for them.“I wouldn’t be surprised if they are using their lever to tell Hamas that they do not really wish to be put in the position of having to choose between their current interest in going ahead with [the reconciliation with] Israel, and the implications of escalation in Gaza,” he said. “They have a vested interest in avoiding escalation in Gaza.”

Does this tell us that “Hamas”, created by Israel, will begin firing rockets or some such rubbish and then Israel will blame Turkey?

“That’s the good news. The bad news is that the Turkish military move again illustrates waning US power and influence in the region.Though Washington backed the initial Turkish push into the Islamic State controlled city of Jarabulus, ostensibly to push the organization away from its border, this support soured when the Turks began using this as cover for fighting its Kurdish nemesis along the frontier, apparently trying to prevent a contiguous Kurdish area from emerging along its border that could embolden restive Kurds inside Turkey.“If they go all out against the Kurds in northern Syria, I think it is a danger for us with troubling implications – it would be morally and strategically a tragedy,” he said.Israel, Lerman added, is “justifiably careful” not to take a position whether a Kurdish state should be formed, and that to do so would be neither helpful nor wise.

Israel hasn’t been justifiably careful or prudent regarding their absolute support, desire and assistance for  their much desired Kurdish state!!!

“But we do have a sentiment and an affinity for people who stood and fought – and courageously – against Islamic State in the last few years, and I think it is not only morally, but strategically troubling, to see the Turks prioritizing a fight with the Kurds over their fight against ISIS.”

Ah yes, quintissential Israeli disinfo- Brave Kurds fought ISIS- Except Israel has no problem with ISIS- None what so ever. So their claim that the Kurds have bravely fought ISIS does not sit right with me. ISIS has been great for Israel. And, the US. Enabling the destruction of strong nations, to the benefit of Israel. Allowing for the remake of the region, to Israel's benefit. All the while never bothering with Israel. So courageous... fighting Israel's ally??? KurdIShIS, again!hattip willyloman ‘Islamic State serves positive function (for Israel)’ – Israeli think tankfrom a previous post -not relinked at this time

“Asked why Israel tiptoes so gingerly around the question of a Kurdish state, even though on the face of it the emergence of such a state would seem like a natural non-Arab ally in the region, Lerman said that Jerusalem “does not want to give the Kurds’ enemies the ability to say that this is something that we are fomenting.”

Except it is something Israel is fomenting- Kurdistan. Destbilization of Syria. Iraq. Iran. All of it. Israel is there. Present. Fully participatory

“Lerman said that there was something “pathetic” about hearing unnamed Pentagon officials this week rebuking the Turks for taking their battle inside Syria beyond Islamic State to the Kurds, but then the Turks going ahead and doing whatever they want “regardless of American discomfort.’” “That is very telling on the state of US authority right now, and of course it has implications for us at least in the short term until January 20,” he said, noting the date when US President Barack Obama will formally leave office.Turkey’s moves in Syria against US-backed Kurdish forces who have fought against Syrian President Bashar Assad and Islamic State is more evidence that the US right now carries little strategic weight in the region.“The will of the United States of America has rarely carried less weight than it does now in regional affairs,” he said.“And that means that those of us who worry about regional stability have to work together for ourselves.”

Those of us who worry about regional stability have to work together for ourselves... Kurds & Israel. PKK/YPG etc., included

“With their moves into Syria, he said, Ankara has demonstrated that “we don’t care less what the US says or feels about this, we are going ahead with what we see as our national interests,” adding that the message is even more “troubling” considering that Turkey is a NATO ally”

Turkey only caring about it’s national interests.... Oh dear. Turkey must care about Israel's national interests??

America’s lower profile and reduced effectiveness in the region, he noted, could change with a new president, and at least at the level of the actions it chooses to take, this could change relatively quickly. However, he said, “at the level of perceptions, changing perceptions takes time.”

Once the election is over. The US gloves come off

Lerman stressed that the US is still powerful, compared to all the other powers in the region. “It can make a difference if it wants to make a difference. But for the time being, we are seeing in the Turkish incursion a reflection of this reduced profile.”

This reduced profile has much to do with Obama leaving and the impending selection of Hillary Clinton. Yes, I'm still seeing Hillary the psychopath as President- Barring something extraordinary happening.

“Most observers concur that one consequence of Turkey’s incursion – by weakening both Islamic State and the Kurdish rebels fighting Assad’s regime – will be to help Assad hang onto power. In that, the Turkish moves are in line with both Russian and Iranian interests in Syria: ensuring Assad’s survival.

Israel, of course, has no interest in Assad's survival or Syria's survival. 

“There is a commonality of Iranian and Russian interests when it comes to Assad’s survival,” he said. “There is no commonality when it comes to the use of Syria as a jumping-board for action against Israel and against Jordan. The Iranians have designs on Syria that the Russians do not share.”

That the Russians “are not working for the Iranians” inside Syria is made clear in the deconfliction mechanism created between Israel and Russia to prevent their militaries from “bumping into each other.” Russia is interested in Assad’s survival to retain its strong foot-hold in the region, while the Iranians would like to turn Syria into a base of operations against Jordan and Israel.

“Assad will be running an unbelievable risk to his wretched remains of a regime if he plays along with the Iranians on the Golan, and I should hope he understands it,” Lerman said. “The Russians certainly have no problem understanding that what the Iranians want to do in Syria, and what they want to do in Syria, are not the same things.”

Explicity stating that Israel is stealing more of Golan and Syria had better sit quietly and take it, or else!

Regarding whether he thought the Russians would be willing to prevent the Iranians from using Syrian territory against Israel, Lerman said it was not a question of preventing the Iranians, rather of Moscow “speaking sweetly into Assad’s ear and telling him that it wouldn’t exactly suit Russia’s interests if he took unnecessary risks to the survival of his regime, a survival for which they are sacrificing their resources and some lives.”

But why should the Russians care if the Iranians use the Golan against Israel? “Because Israel is going to react,” Lerman responded. “We are not exactly a dead body. If we bring our power to bear on what is left on Assad’s regime, then there is a good chance that the Russian interests in Syria will follow the interests they once had in Libya into oblivion. The last thing they need is for Assad to take risks with Israel that could bring about the demise of his regime. That would mean that they invested in another rabbit hole.”

Lerman makes that threat very clear ... aiming it not just at Syria, but also at Iran and Russia!

Lerman, who served 20 years in military intelligence, said that one of the problems he encountered during that period was intelligence officers who were always taking into account what others would do, but somehow keeping Israel out of the equation, as if it was “on the dark side of the moon.”“Israel is a very strong country,” he said. “Others have to think about us. The Russians have a very keen sense of what we are capable of doing, and they have no wish to see Assad take unnecessary risks. They recognize our capacity, and have no wish to have it called up.”

Is the Israeli threat clear enough? Will they work against Turkey to ensure the creation of their extended state? Israel's Kurdistan Interests- Keeping it on the down low!  Related to: Putin- Turkey's Syria Operation Not Unexpected

 And so very many more posts on Israel 2.0