So it turns out that when all the votes were counted, Lesko did even worse than what was reported Wednesday morning. The official website of Arizona's Secretary of State has Lesko with 95,499 votes (52.4%) and Tipirneni with 86,771 votes (47.6%). Lesko leads by 8,728 out of 183,118 votes cast. The Arizona Republic called it a glimpse of a coming blue wave and reported that the election results have "triggered new anxiety about the GOP's party leadership, direction and message in the traditionally red-leaning state... Republicans expected Democrats to perform well in the special election, given the anti-Trump mood motivating liberal and independent voters and the heated passions over health care and the more local debate over teacher pay and looming teacher walk-outs, which Republicans are grappling with at the State Capitol. But they were startled that Tipirneni managed to pull off such a strong showing in the deep-red district. Lesko's lackluster performance left Republicans with a sinking feeling as they barrel towards the 2018 cycle. The numbers don't bode well for GOP candidates up and down the ballot." (By the way, the GOP spent over a million dollars in AZ-08 and the Democrats spent... zero.)And that's not just true in House races, nor just in Arizona. Axios published a poll showing the Democrats' really wretched Senate candidate, Kyrsten Sinema, beating any of the 3 Republican candidates by comfortable margins:The polling also shows the Democrats winning the Senate races in purple Nevada and blood red Tennessee.After the AZ-08 swing away from Trump, everyone started talking about how there were so many incumbents who could never survive that kind of swing. True, true... but there's no need to compare apples and oranges. After all, AZ-08 was an open seat where the Republican was forced to retire in a sex scandal. Flesh and blood incumbents will generally be more difficult targets. That said, though, Sabato's Crystal Ball downgraded 10 Republican-held seats from "Safe Republican" to "Likely Republican" and one from "Leans Republican" to "Toss-up." The new toss-up seat is Leonard Lance's in New Jersey, but anyone paying attention has known he's been in trouble all cycle. Here are the Safe to Likely seats:
• AZ-06- David Schweikert- R+9• CA-04- Tom McClintock- R+10• CA-22- Devin Nunes- R+8• CO-03- Scott Tipton- R+6• GA-07- Rob Woodall- R+9• MO-02- Ann Wagner- R+8• NC-08- Richard Hudson- R+8• OH-07- Bob Gibbs- R+12• OH-10- Mike Turner- R+4• SC-05- Ralph Norman- R+9
The news was even worse for Cathy McMorris Rodgers (WA-05), David Brat (VA-07) and-- if he even wins his primary-- Dan Donovan (NY-11), all of whose seats went from "Likely Republican to Leans Republican."Do all of these downgraded Republicans have viable opponents? Schweikert has 4 Democrats running, one of whom, Heather Ross, has raised enough money to run a serious campaign. McClintock has 3 Democrats running and 2, Jessica Morse and Regina Bateson are financially, competitive with him. Nunes is in major trouble and could well end up inside the Trump Regime. He's loaded with right-wing cash ($4,535,099) but the anti-Nunes environment could negate his financial advantage. Tipton has 3 Dems in the race and two-- Diane Mitsch Bush and Karl Hanlon-- have raised into the 6-figures. Woodall has a whole pack of Democrats nipping at his heels and 3 have raised enough money to win. One, David Kim, has outraised Woodall (although with $348,389 in self-funding). Ann Wagner knew she was in trouble and has redoubled her efforts to get Wall Street to underwrite her reelection. She has $3,390,226 in her warchest. The closest any of her 4 Democratic opponents comes in Cort Vanostran's $340,213 (after raising $520,336). In North Carolina Richard Hudson has raised $1,401,578 and the closest any of his 3 Democratic opponents has come is Frank McNeill's $249,023. In Ohio, conservative Democrat Ken Harbaugh has upraised Bob Gibbs $1,128,124 to $581,450 and Michael Turner is in jeopardy from Theresa Gasper. Ralph Norman and Archie Parnell will face off in a rematch in South Carolina. Last year's special election shocked the political world when Norman edged Parnell 45,076 (51%) to 42,341 (48%). It's a pretty red district-- and Trump beat Hillary 57.3% to 38.8%-- but swing-wise it's not impossible for Parnell to turn the beat around in November.