COVID-KempThanks to an incompetent ideologically-insane Trumpist governor, Georgia is one of the worst hit states by the pandemic. Georgia is the 8th most populous state but has the 5th most COVID cases of any state-- and the third most active cases, behind just Florida and California. Yesterday, Georgia reported 1,498 new cases, bringing the total to 270,471 cases, which comes to 25,474 cases per million residents (6th worst in the country and likely to overtake Alabama, for 5th place soon). Georgia now has had more cases than Italy, a country that was considered a disaster zone and that has around 6 times more residents than Georgia. Simple fact: Georgia has been, and still is, a text book case of how not to handle a pandemic. Republicans-- locally and nationally-- are allowing partisanship and ideology to drive decision-making, rather than science and public health concerns. Perhaps that helps explain why Trump is in trouble with independent voters in a state he won in 2016 by 5 points.Almost all polling this summer has shown Biden and Trump within the margin of error. The most recent poll-- a PPP survey released yesterday-- shows Trump's approval underwater (52% disapproving and 46% approving) and shows Biden narrowly ahead 47-46% (within the margin of error).Georgia has been a state where Republicans could count on winning without spending much-- and Democratic presidential candidates haven't seriously contested the state since... Jimmy Carter. This year, both Trump and Biden are spending money on advertising there. Biden has reserved ads in 9 states besides Georgia that Trump won in 2016: Arizona, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Texas and Wisconsin. Trump has ads booked in just 3 states that Hillary won in 2016-- Minnesota, Nevada and New Hampshire.Trump is playing defense in Florida, Georgia, Arizona, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and is likely to start taking Texas seriously as well.Yesterday, CNN's Chris Cillizza reported that "the number of swing states is far larger than we've seen in any recent election, a reflection of President Donald Trump's asymmetrical politics and the rapidly changing demographics in the country."
That there are 15 states that meet that bar is a remarkable testament to how wide the two sides see the potential playing field-- and how far we have come in the past two decades in terms of what can be considered a swing state. If you think back to the 2000 and 2004 elections, the group of swing states was familiar-- and small. Colorado, Florida, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and maybe one or two others. And that was pretty much it. Both sides were forced to dump tens of millions of dollars into that handful of states, not because they wanted to, but because they couldn't justify spending that money in other states in hopes of turning them.Barack Obama broke that deadlock in 2008 with wins in Indiana, North Carolina and Virginia, states no Democrat had won at the presidential level in decades. And Trump further widened the swing-state category by notching wins in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, typically Democratic victories, in 2016.What's clear from the ad reservations for this fall is that the we are now dealing with an even wider playing field. Both campaigns have reserved time in Arizona, a state long safely in the Republican column. Ditto Minnesota, a state a Republican presidential candidate hasn't won since 1972(!).Viewed broadly, the size of the playing field -- and the states included in it-- suggest that Biden is a) playing more offense than defense and b) sees a massive Electoral College victory as a genuine possibility....The most fascinating part of the ad reservation is that Biden has blocked out time in Texas and Georgia, two major electoral vote treasure troves, and two states that haven't been won by a Democratic running for president since 1976 and 1992, respectively. Polling in both states shows the race close; Trump has a 3.5 point lead in the Real Clear Politics polling average in Texas and a 1.1 point average margin in Georgia.If Biden were to win one or both of Texas and Georgia, he would have at least the possibility of a major-- 350-plus electoral votes-- Electoral College landslide. (House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has said for the better part of the last two years that Democrats must win "big" in order to avoid Trump aggressively contesting the result and refusing to concede.)But it's more than just Electoral College calculus at work here. If Biden goes through with his plans to spend on ads in Texas and Georgia -- which is a big "if" given how expensive statewide TV buys are in both states -- he would likely force Trump's campaign to spend (and spend heavily) in those states, too. And every dollar Trump spends defending Texas or Georgia (or both) is a dollar he can't play offense with in Minnesota or Nevada or Virginia.The widening of the electoral playing field has been happening gradually over the past three elections. But for 15 states to be in the mix this late in a presidential election cycle-- including Electoral College monsters like Texas and Georgia-- is a new chapter in modern American politics. And one that holds all sorts of possibilities-- for both parties-- in future races.
I asked how Julie Oliver how it will play out in her district. Democratic presidential candidates haven't really campaign in Texas is ages. "Texans," she told me this morning, "put our state in play, running everywhere as hard as we could in 2018-- before anyone thought it was winnable. Just everyday people, standing up, building the movement to take our state back from the corrupt ideologues who for too long have tried to keep all of us divided while they enriched themselves. And in 2020, it's time for real change.Like Julie and all Democratic candidates in swing states, Michigan state Rep and congressional candidate Jon Hoadley is happy to see Biden taking the Democratic case to voters in his state. "It's welcome news that the Biden/Harris ticket is campaigning in Michigan," he told me this morning. "We saw what happened four years ago when people took Michigan for granted. Voters want us to not only make the case why we're better for the job than the other candidates, but why we deserve their vote at all. A strong Biden/Harris ticket in Michigan will help bolster the case we're making for change in southwest Michigan, push back against the lies being spread by secret dark money groups, and remind even more voters what's at stake in this election." Meanwhile, Hoadley is hardly waiting; yesterday he launched his own first TV ad: