Many progressive activists seem not so progressive when they try analyzing the race to replace Katie Hill in CA-25. Some worry that Cenk Uygur's entry into the race might somehow result in a Republican victory in this relatively new district with a Democratic registration advantage whose special election jungle primary takes place on March 3, the same day Californians flood to the polls to pick the Democrat they want to see take on Trump in November.New district? Yes. CA-25, when it was a GOP bastion, was, geographically, the biggest district in California, stretching from northern L.A. County all the way up along the Nevada border nearly as far north as Sacramento. After the last redistricting, CA-25 became a compact district that is basically 3 adjacent valleys-- Antelope Valley in the east, Santa Clarita Valley in the center and Simi Valley in the west. In 2006, the PVI was a daunting R+7. Two years later-- even before the redistricting-- Obama beat McCain there by 1 point. In 2016, Hillary beat Trump far more convincingly-- 50.3% to 43.6%. And last year, first-time candidate Katie Hill came out of nowhere and beat the incumbent Republican-- longtime local lawmaker Steve Knight-- even more convincingly: 133,209 (54.4%) to 111,813 (45.6%). The Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys went strongly blue and Simi Valley was basically the scene of a tie leaning ever so slightly red. The latest PVI-- always a lagging indicator-- is now "even." It should be a D+1 or D+2. The voter registration has been trending consistently blue and here's the latest registration-- as of October 1, 2019:
• Democrats- 154,450 (37.56%)• Republicans- 129,587 (31.51%)• No party preference- 101,678 (24.72%)
Republicans don't win districts what that kind of a registration disadvantage-- not in California, not anywhere. From now on, Democrats can always win CA-25 by turning out their base and by winning their natural share of independent voters. In 2020, accomplishing both, thanks to Trump's toxicity among Californians, are absolute no-brainers. Democrats and independents hate Trump with an intensifying passion and they are eager to go to the polls to register that passion.Now, listen to Cenk being interviewed by Chris Cuomo on CNN in the video above. It's important, not just because of the specifics of the CA-25 race but for the 2020 election in general and everywhere.A jungle primary means that all the candidates run on one ballot and unless one candidate gets 50% + one vote, there's a run-off between the two top vote-getters, regardless of party. So far there are 6 Republicans in the race with another 6 or so considering getting in, including some with big name recognition. Because several of the candidates will actually draw Republican votes, the Republican base will be split up. Former Congressman Steve Knight will get many, but so will the NRCC-endorsed candidate Mike Garcia (who has already raised over half a million dollars) and possibly the 2 Trump World joke candidates-- George Papadopolous ("I went to prison instead of ratting out Trump") and conspiracy-theorist, misogynist and neo-fascist Mike Cernovich from down in Orange County.Democrats in the district get to choose between two classic prototypes, a pointless careerist establishment shill and a progressive reformer/revolutionary. The latter you will get to know by watching the video above. The former has already been anointed by everything that makes the Democratic Party nothing more than "well, yeah they suck but they're not as bad as the Republicans."Christy Smith was elected to the Assembly last year where she has served without distinction as a garden variety corporate Democrat who always follows the leaders. Katie Hill and her supporters are all in for Christy and Christy went on CNN to brag that Katie, an unrepentant New Dem, "has passed the torch to me." In a meeting with another Democrat running for another office, Smith told him that his anti-corruption in government messaging-- which happens to be similar to Cenk's anti-corruption messaging-- was personally offensive to her. Yeah, shoe fits.Smith also mentioned that Santa Clarita has a loitering ban and homeless men and women were either arrested or bussed up to the Antelope Valley. Maybe that's why, as an Assembly member, she's been so intensely disliked in the Antelope Valley, part of the congressional district but not her assembly district. Do you support Medicare-for-All and the Green New Deal? Cenk does too but Christy doesn't. We need more people in Congress who support and are motivated by these and similar initiatives, not more who are afraid of them, can't understand them and refuse to back them.Click to read
