For several years now, the Pacific Rim has been witnessing China’s rise to power with a simultaneous weakening of the US positions. China is slowly, but surely driving Americans out of the region, extending its “area of influence” from the countries of the ASEAN to the Middle East. China has also demonstrated an impressive determination acting on all fronts. Beijing is implementing its String of Pearls strategy in the area of the Indian Ocean. It presses for the delimitation of spheres of influence in the Pacific Ocean ensuring the influence of the US does not spread beyond the Hawaiian Islands. This was the topic of the summer 2013 meeting between the General Secretary of the Communist Party of China Xi Jinping and US President Barack Obama. The same statement was voiced in May 2014, at the Conference on Interaction and Confidence Building Measures in Asia. There Xi Jinping quite explicitly emphasized that China is playing a dominant role in the region.
As far as China’s policy in the South China Sea and the East China Sea is concerned, China is energetically pushing the US out of the region, building new man-made islands and installing air-defense systems there. In September 2015, when Xi Jinping and Barack Obama were holding a regular meeting, US President expressed his discontent with the construction of man-made islands. Mr. Jinping answered saying that China’s immediate interests required the construction works to continue.
All countries of the Pacific Rim are closely following the development of the situation, as the construction would affect each of them in one way or another. While some countries consider a transfer of leadership in the region to China an advantage, others are getting alarmed.
Japan, whose dependence on the US has been strong since the WWII, is the country most concerned with China’s advances. Ebbing of American influence in the region compels the Land of the Rising Sun to thinks of its own security.
Despite all the efforts to create at least a semblance of friendly relations between Japan and China (just recall a long-term financial aid China was receiving from Japan in the past), and despite today’s active economic cooperation (in 2015 goods turnover between the two countries amounted to $278 bn) withdrawal of the US from the region would leave Japan in a vulnerable position. The Sino-Japanese relations have been rocky for centuries. Memories of the 1937-1945 war, and especially of the horrors of the 1937 Nanking Massacre, when Japanese soldiers had killed around 300,000 peaceful Chinese citizens in 40 days, are still fresh in China. These memories, painful for both countries, resurface each time there is an exacerbation of the Sino-Japanese relations. Sometimes these memories themselves upset the bilateral relations.
For example, when in October 2015 UNESCO took a decision to include Chinese documents evidencing the fact of the Nanking Massacre in the list of the World Heritage, Japan immediately protested the decision. At that time the Japanese government claimed that the Chinese party had falsified the facts and threatened to discontinue funding UNESCO, who receive 10% of their budget from Japan (Japan is the second largest UNESCO donor after the US). While some Japanese politicians outright deny the very fact of the massacre, there are some who say that the number of victims was greatly exaggerated. No matter how Japanese assess the massacre, the global community has no doubts of the veracity of the events, though the number of victims quoted by different sources varies (from 200 to 300 thousand people). What’s important, though, nobody in China doubts the occurrence of the massacre, where the revanchist sentiment is still strong. That might have negative implications on the further development of the Sino-Japanese relations, especially if Japan is no longer backed by the US. Nobody is talking about a possibility of a military conflict, of course, but it is common knowledge that changes in the balance of military power is always reflected in the international policy.
The political aspect of today’s Sino-Japanese relations, described as extremely tense, leaves much to be desired. The crisis began in 2012, when Japanese authorities aired their intention to nationalize rich in natural gas Senkaku islands in the East China Sea, which China considers its territory. The statement sparked numerous anti-Japanese protests and a wave of violence in China. To add insult to injury, the controversial islands began seeing more of Chinese and Japanese ships than ever before. Soon Taiwan got involved: there was a conflict between Japanese and Taiwanese ship crews with the use of water cannons.
The standoff continues. Meanwhile, Japan is increasing its military expenditures pursuant to the state security strategy adopted in 2013. China, in its turn, continues getting on its eastern neighbor’s nervous by conducting military drills in the Sea of Japan (the recent one was conducted in August 2015). In April 2016, Japan sent its warships to the Philippines, having emphasized that the core objective of the visit was to offset the growing military influence of China in the South China Sea.
Many Japanese politicians see the attenuation of the US positions in Asia as an opportunity for Japan to “break away” from the grip of the US and become an independent player in the region. Many Japanese also cherish a dream of rekindling their country’s former military power. According to Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, the country cannot establish and use armed forces, except for self-defense. Lately, the idea of abandoning Article 9 has been gaining more and more proponents. In the autumn of 2015, the Japanese parliament adopted a law permitting Japanese Self-defense Forces to engage in actions outside of the Japanese borders. A withdrawal of American troops from the region could be an excellent opportunity for the denunciation of Article 9 and creation of a full-fledged army under the pretext of protection against China. In May 2016, there was a rise in the anti-American sentiment in Okinawa housing a US air force base.
Apparently, the Pacific Rim is standing on the cusp of big changes. The niche the US is now giving up will be inevitably occupied by other states, which will be rigorously competing for dominance. At this historical juncture, it is particularly important for all the countries of the Pacific Rim to stay true to the rules of the international law and to solve problems in a diplomatic way to ensure the changes will be to the better. On the one hand, the weakening of the American influence cripples stability in the region, on the other—changes always open a door to new opportunities and to a new political setup in the region, for this matter. And Japan will, apparently, do whatever it takes to be among the new leaders.
Dmitry Bokarev, political observer, exclusively for the online magazine “New Eastern Outlook.“
