Anthony has updated myself and readers on the situation in Ukraine-Excerpts from his comments are below. There is also a news item I thought interesting and am not sure what to make of it?
AnonymousAugust 31, 2014 at 6:16 AMThe latest from the Donbass and it's as confused as ever. Here are some of the main points to note.The militia are still holding on to the recently acquired territory in the south and have Mariupol surrounded. Mariupol would be a fantastic prize to win before the winter sets in. A sea port and apparently has large stocks of food, although the Russians have pledged to send more humanitarian aid and the roads are now pretty much clear of Ukranian forces.
I did notice that Mariupol was surrounded by militia. Kiev has forces stationed in the city. (Resource in sidebar)
The latest BBC article still persists in showing an isolated pocket of militia gains on the south coast next to the Russian order so as to further the Russian invasion meme. Even the wiki page is better and shows a corridor connecting the south coast to militia territory in the north, although wiki still vastly underplays the actual militia position.The militia have been focussing on reducing the boilers, but they have stated that phase two of the counter offensive is planned, with lots of newly acquired equipment to play with. Ukranian soldiers have been surrendering in their hundreds. The militia are splitting conscripts from national guard, right sector and the various nazi leaning paramilitaries. My understanding is that tank crews and artillery men are also being sorted out, partly because they are guilty of massacring the civilian population, but also I think to prevent trained men returning to fight.There was some confusion and reports of large numers of Ukranians dead and wounded when, depending on which reports you believe: 1: The Ukranians were cynically butchered by the militia who reneged on their promise of a humanitarian corridor or 2: The Ukranian soldiers were slaughtered as they cynically abused the offer of escape without weapons y regrouping and trying to power their way out with equipment, in respone to which the milita blasted them.
Could a 3rd scenario be that the neonazi's slaughtered the 'cowardly' soldiers? Framing the separatists and putting the fear into other Ukie troops? Is that plausible?
Highly significantly, Poroshenko has been quoted as saying that there is no military solution to the conflict. Which, translated, means that there is no chance of a Ukranian victory.Putin has been emphasizing the need for recognition of statehood for the Donbass. The milita have all the cards right now and they can continue to fight to regain all of the Donetsk and Lugansk republics if Poroshenko plays hard ball.
AnonymousAugust 31, 2014 at 7:29 AMSome good news on the ground.The strategically important town of Litugino, south of Lugansk on the H21 highway, is now showing as militia controlled. A couple of small towns / villages south of Litugino are also showing as militia controlled as the boiler gets squeezed back to the Lugansk airport.There is fighting at Donetsk airport. Ukrainian troops there are becoming increasingly isolated as the militia slowly pushes out of Donetsk.The Ukranian flag on Debalcevo at the crossroads of the M03 and M04 highways has gone. There were reports of a Ukranian withdrawal to prevent another boiler. Are they finally learning? Thankfully, far too late.Less positive is the Ukranian flag showing at Volnohava on the H20 highway south of Donetsk to Mariupol. The militia line here looks wafer thin, but the Ukranians to the east of the H20 are under attack from different directions and who knows the qulaity of Ukranian forces to the east.
Last comment and thanks Anthony!
AnonymousAugust 31, 2014 at 1:01 PMIn addition to the attack on Donetsk airport, the militia have also launched an atttack on Lugansk airport. Some reports claim that it has been taken.These airports were thorns in the side of the militia and would represent decisive steps towards restoring normality in the two cities and of course free resources for other campaigns.Anthony
Curious news item- Separatists Claim Attack on Ukrainian Naval Ship Was Kiev attempting to move on the rebels via the Azov Sea?
Separatist rebels attacked a Ukrainian naval vessel in the Azov Sea on Sunday by firing artillery from the shore, and a Ukrainian military spokesman said a rescue operation was under way. Spokesman Andriy Lysenko said the vessel was a naval cutter. There was no information on the number of people on board.
The pro-Russian rebels claimed responsibility for the attack near the city of Mariupol, located about 50 kilometres (30 miles) from the Russian border and about 35 kilometres from Novoazovsk, which was overtaken by pro-Russian rebels over the weekend.