Trump is underwater-- and so is his party-- especially in swing statesWe were all aware that Señor Trumpanzee’s net approval rating-- the percentage of people who approve of the president minus the percentage who disapprove-- has declined nationally since January 2017 but what's a little surprising is that Señor T's net approval has declined in all 50 states since he took office. ALL.50.STATES. The states where he fell the hardest were blue states where people had decided to keep an open mind and to give him a chance after he moved into the White House-- like New Mexico, where he started out with a net approval of +17, Illinois, where he started out with a net approval of +9 and New York, where he started out with a net approval of +8. Ah... those were the days. New Mexico's net approval has taken a nose drive: -14 (down 31 points!). Same with Illinois. The latest net approval was -22 (down 31 points). New York wasn't much better: net approval is now -21... a drop of 29 points.Some red states are in the process of giving up on Trump as well. Utah was never Trump country but once he moved into the White House Utahans gave him a healthy net approval of +27. It is now 0, meaning positives and negatives are even. Trump is still in positive ground in red, red Oklahoma, where he won every single county in the state and beat Hillary 949,136 (65.3%) to 420,375 (28.9%). His net approval started as one of the highest in the country-- +34 and has now fallen (as you might surmised from all the special elections that have gone to Democrats in red districts) to +11, a drop of 23 points.OK, what about the dozen swing states, the Russians were working actively in to help him steal the election? Lookin' bad! Or lookin' good, depending on your perspective:
• Wisconsin started out at +6, is now at -12, an 18 point drop• Michigan started out at +8, is now at -9, a 17 point drop• Ohio started out at +14, is now at -4, an 18 point drop• Florida started out at +22, is now at +5, a 17 point drop• Iowa started out at +9, is now at -7, a 16 point drop• North Carolina started out at +18, is now at +2, a 16 point drop• Pennsylvania started out at +10,i s now at -4, a 14 point drop• New Hampshire started out at +1, is now at -15, a 16 point drop• Minnesota started out at +3, is now at -15, an 18 point drop• Maine started out at +8, is now at -6, a 14 point drop• Virginia started out at +8, is now at -6, a 14 point drop• Nevada started out at +10, is now at -2, a 12 point drop
Trump's toxicity will play a factor in most of these states swinging blue in November, especially in House races. It's conceivable, for example that Iowa, which now has 1 Democrat and 3 Republicans in the House will wind up with 4 Democrats and no Republicans. JD Scholten, the progressive Democrat who won a majority in a 3-person primary told us he gets "asked all the time 'Why does Steve King get re-elected?' Well, for the longest time in Iowa’s 4th district we heard that’s just Steve being Steve, like that weird uncle. The Trump effect in our district relates to people saying 'No more.' It stems from not only King’s controversial statements but his weakness to fight for this district. It’s clear that King goes along with Trump and is trying to push his self-interested ideology more so than helping the people in Iowa’s 4th. That's what is going to make this R+11 race turn into a toss up come November." Or look at statewide races where Trump's toxicity is likely to be catastrophic for the GOP. The latest polling in Pennsylvania shows Senate incumbent Bob Casey (D) crushing GOP challenger Lou Barletta 44-27% and incumbent Governor Tom Wolf (D) crushing Republican Scott Wagner 48-29%. Look for as many as half a dozen congressional seats in Pennsylvania to flip red to blue.Ohio has a similar statewide dynamic playing out-- current polling shows Senate incumbent Sherrod Brown (D) beating Rep. Jim Renacci either 51-34% or 53-37%, depending on which poll. In the open gubernatorial seat, Democrat Richard Cordray holds a narrow lead over Ohio Attorney General Mike Dewine, either 42-40% or 43-36%.