The clock is ticking down as the Brexit deadline approaches. Meanwhile Theresa May has lost the faith of her people and could be facing a no confidence vote very soon. She must try to maintain a middle ground between hard core brexiters and those who are calling for a revote in order to prevent the brexit
Sky news reports
For a year or so now, underlying polling has shown that the public is unconvinced by how Brexit is being handled.
But by and large, small numbers of people were actually changing their mind.
The small lead for Remain came from 2016 non-voters, including younger voters not then eligible, falling heavily for staying in the European Union.
Now the lack of faith in the handling of Brexit is affecting perceptions of Brexit itself.
Not just that, most troubling for Number 10, the Brexit middle ground is disappearing from underneath the PM’s feet.
Brexiteers such as Andrew Bridgen MP blame the Chequers compromise of staying in a common rule book for goods and trade for a shift in the polls against Brexit, and demand the abandonment of the plan.
Remainer campaigners feel equally emboldened that demographics and the brutal clarity of plans for stockpiling food and medicines, are on their side if they can somehow get Parliament to vote for a referendum on the exit deal.
And, as importantly, at a time when the Cabinet is touring European capitals seeking their backing to force Brussels to compromise on its red lines, the perception that the UK public does not back the Chequers compromise is very problematic.
The government’s official response to polls such as this is that there will be no further referendum.
Indeed the PM regularly uses the fact that Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has not fully ruled one out as a stick to try to beat him in the Commons.
But Number 10 needs to ask itself some pretty fundamental questions about strategy.
Leaked “snippets” of No Deal preparedness work have confirmed the need for stockpiling of food, medicines and plasma products.
All this is now deemed too scary for the public to consume. The EU itself has published 70 such preparedness notices this year.
It is rather difficult to reconcile with repeatedly parroting “No deal is better than a bad deal”.
It was always likely that its Brexit plan would land somewhere near Chequers. But Number 10 did not roll the pitch for this compromise, by, for example, getting the PM to promise car or aviation workers that their jobs would be protected.
The Clean or Hard Brexiteers feel the red lines that she herself announced have been betrayed.
But having staked out a fairly hard line initially, the PM has not now persuaded Remain leaning voters to be thankful for her attempt at compromise.
She has not sold Chequers. And the public is not now buying it.
That makes it less likely that MPs will feel the need to compromise in the autumn to pass the withdrawal deal, or even that they get a deal to vote on from the European Union.
She had an uphill battle from the start. What will the future hold for Britain’s economy? Only time will tell
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