MI-08 is an iffy seat for a Democrat to win without a wave. But this cycle there is a wave. The R+4 district includes Democratic Ingraham County (Lansing), Republican Livingston County and then red parts of Oakland County. in the suburbs north of Detroit. Although Obama won the district in 2008, Romney took it in 2012 and Trump beat Hillary 50.6% to 43.9%. The incumbent, Mike Bishop, was majority leader of the Michigan state Senate but has been a hapless, anonymous backbencher in Congress, a Trump rubber-stamp and enabler. His Trump affinity score is an eye-popping 97.8%, way out of synch with his district. The 538 website shows a pretty classic toss-up, forecasting Bishop will get 48.8% of the votes against 48.2% for Elissa Slotkin, a conservative New Dem.As of the July 18 FEC reporting deadline in Michigan, Slotkin was doing far better than Bishop in the money race. She had raised $3,022,226, spent $644,848 and was sitting on $2,377,378. Bishop had only raised $2,187,217 ($1,444,121 from PACs), spent $581,498 and had just $1,706,307 left on hand. At that time, Paul Ryan's sleaze SuperPAC hadn't really begun to spend much on him; they're just getting started and will more than make up for her fundraising advantage. The ad up top, though, was paid for by the NRCC.The DCCC recruited Slotkin because they had a theory that it would be advantageous to run hawkish, conservative women with military and intelligence backgrounds. She's a former Acting Assistant Secretary of Defense. She worked in both Democratic and Republican administrations-- she just picked up endorsements from 3 big name GOP military industrial complex types (Chuck Hagel, John Negroponte and Stephen Hadley)-- in the CIA, primarily on Middle East matters. Judging by her website, she has nothing to offer MI-08 voters (except her interesting biography). On the issues that are motivating voters? Crickets... except her claim that she'll take "a common sense approach." She's as terrible a candidate as the DCCC routinely spits out and her only chance to win is if the anti-red wave sweeps Bishop away for her. It's a classic lesser of two evil race. She put out a strong TV today-- but it would be stronger if she supported Medicare-for-All.Back to the anti-Slotkin ad up top, for a moment though, the one made and put on TV by the NRCC. John McCain's family isn't pleased that the NRCC used him in it. A family spokesperson told NBC News that "the McCain family believes it's unfortunate that the senator's image is being weaponized this election season. They hope that there would be more respect, especially so soon after his passing." Nor is it just the Michigan ad that they're pissed off about.Here's another one the NRCC is running against another shitty DCCC candidate, New Dem Ann Kirkpatrick. The McCain part of the ad was from when he and she were locked in a U.S. Senate battle 2 years ago.The NRCC is refusing to take either ad down, despitee the McCain family's requests. The chances of their weak candidate beating Kirkpatrick as the anti-red wave sweeps over Arizona is practically zero. Actually it's 1 in 15, not a very good bet for the NRCC-- and a stupid waste of money when they're already using triage to write off incumbents an other weak challengers in open seats like AZ-02.Did you watch Samantha Bee talking about how the GOP uses gerrymandering and other techniques to win elections even when they get fewer votes? If you appreciate her style of comedy (I do), it's worth taking a look:
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