Republicans in states or districts that are so red that they don't need independent voters to win, have no problem continuing to support Trump. At least in theory, the states where Republicans can win without significant independent support are these half dozen red hellholes (with their PVIs):
• Wyoming- R+25• Utah- R+20 (except even Republicans there hate Trump)• Oklahoma- R+20• West Virginia- R+19• Idaho- R+19• North Dakota- R+17
And these are the dozen reddest House districts in the country-- where Republicans can win without independent voters and where even an anti-red mega-tsunami will leave Republicans in power-- along with their incumbents:
• TX-13- R+33 (Mac Thornberry)• TX-11- R+32 (Michael Conaway)• KY-05- R+31 (Hal Rogers)• GA-09- R+31 (Doug Collins)• AL-04- R+30 (Ron Aderholt)• TX-08- R+28 (Kevin Brady)• TX-04- R+28 (John Ratcliffe)• TN-01- R+28 (Phil Roe)• TX-19- R+27 (Jodey Arrington)• OK-03- R+27 (Frank Lucas)• NE-03- R+27 (Adrian Smith)• GA-14- R+27 (Tom Graves)
The problem for Republican senators and Congress members in this cycle is that lots of states with senators up for reelection and lots of House districts have incumbents (or empty seats) where no one wins without significant support from independent voters.) These are the half dozen states were independents will make the most difference this cycle:
• Maine- D+3 (Susan Collins-R)• Colorado- D+1 (Cory Gardner-R)• Michigan- D+1 (Gary Peters-D)• Iowa- R+3 (Joni Ernst-R)• North Carolina- R+3 (Thom Tillis-R)• Arizona- R+5 (Martha McSally-R)
The only safe incumbent this cycle is the one Democrat in one of these swing states, Gary Peters (MI). The rest are all vulnerable. Trump's turn-out-the-base strategy has turned off independent voters to the point where his approval with them in in the toilet, deep in the toilet. If the election were held today, a significant majority of independent voters would go to the polls determined to fuck him up, which means voting against him and voting against other candidates in his party.The impeachment issue puts these vulnerable Republicans in an awkward position. As the PPP survey of Maine voters showed yesterday, the Republican incumbent-- Susan Collins-- is screwed no matter what she does. If she supports Trump, independents will abandon her. If she votes to impeach Trump, the GOP base will abandon her. Cory Gardner, Joni Ernst, Thom Tillis and Matha McSally face similar dilemmas, even if not as pronounced. In Maine 37% of voters self-identify as Democrats, 32% as Independents and 31% as Republicans.
PPP’s newest Maine poll finds that Susan Collins is in trouble for reelection…and that she’s likely to find herself in more trouble no matter what side of impeachment she comes down on.Collins is unpopular, with only 35% of voters approving of the job she’s doing to 50% who disapprove. She trails a generic Democrat for reelection 44-41. That represents a big drop for Collins compared to a poll we did last September when she led a generic Democrat by 6 points at 44-38. At that time she only trailed 64-21 among Clinton voters but in the wake of her vote on Brett Kavanaugh and the general hardening of partisan lines she’s lost a lot of her crossover support and now trails 76-12 with Clinton voters.53% of Mainers support impeaching Donald Trump with 44% opposed. When we ask voters who they would choose if Collins opposed impeachment, her 76-12 deficit among Clinton voters grows even further to 83-8 and she goes from a 3 point deficit against a generic Democratic opponent for reelection to a 7 point deficit at 47-40.And yet she continues to support his entire crackpot agendaCollins faces defeat from a different angle if she supports impeachment though. Her numbers are already a little bit soft with Republican primary voters with 53% saying they generally support her for the nomination again to 38% who say they would prefer someone else. We also tested Collins against some specific possible opponents in a primary- she trails Paul LePage 63-29 and Shawn Moody 45-36 but does lead Derek Levasseur who already entered and exited the race this year 55-10.Things get a lot worse for Collins within the primary electorate if she supports impeachment though. Trump still has an 80% approval rating with GOP voters in the state- much higher than Collins’ 59% approval- and only 14% of primary voters support impeachment to 83% who are opposed to it. When we ask voters about the Republican primary if Collins supports impeachment there’s a 35 point net shift from supporting Collins by 15 points at 53/38 to opposing Collins by 20 points, with just 35% still wanting to nominate Collins if she supports impeachment to 55% who prefer someone else. There’s also a 32 point shift in a hypothetical match with Levasseur from her 45 point initial advantage at 55-10 to just a 13 point advantage at 37-24. And presumably supporting impeaching Trump might bring a more serious primary challenger than Levasseur out of the woodwork.Collins has been remarkably resilient over the years but the issue of impeachment seems to have the potential to cause her to lose in the general election if she chooses one path and to lose in the primary election if she chooses the other path, leaving her with no good options.Maine was one of the closer states in the country in 2016, with Hillary Clinton winning it by less than 3 points. It doesn’t look likely to be as competitive this time around. Only 42% of voters approve of the job Trump is doing to 54% who disapprove. He trails Joe Biden by 12 points (54-42), Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders each by 10 points (53-43), Pete Buttigieg by 9 points (52-43), and Kamala Harris by 6 points (50-44).
