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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2016-12-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

2016 was ‘extremely likely’ to have been a memorable year.

Brexit and the election of Donald Trump as U.S. President were the big events of 2016.  Among many other things, these events perhaps herald Skeptical climate scientists come in from the cold.

I’ve...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-31 - Original post - cached version

by David Wojick

The Social Cost of Carbon is absurd but entrenched.

The monster of all climate modeling efforts is the so-called Social Cost of Carbon (SCC). This involves what are called Integrated Assessment Models or IAMs. These models reflect the fact that, from a policy...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-29 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

Towards eliminating multi-decadal natural oscillations in determination of the Transient Climate Response (TCR) to CO2.

Introduction

In the last few month there have been several posts (see here , here , here, here) addressing the sensitivity of our climate...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My very best wishes to all during the holiday season, whatever you might be celebrating.

Here are some holiday cartoons

 

Filed under: Uncategorized

Judith Curry - 2016-12-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Too rapid a movement towards a low-carbon economy could materially damage financial stability: a climate Minsky moment — Mark Carney

A recent speech given by Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, entitled Resolving the Climate Paradox.  The whole text of...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On sea level rise, President Obama and King Canute.

In 2008, then President-elect Barack Obama said his victory marked “the moment when the rise of the oceans began to slow”

So . . . how has that been working out?  Well, the figure below is the latest global...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

2016 Arctic Report Card Highlights Dramatic Changes in Region [link]

Hottest Arctic Hype: ‘Nothing is actually happening that justifies the apocalyptic headlines’ [link]

Desertification Effects, Causes,...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-17 - Original post - cached version

by Turbulent Eddie

Adjusted USHCN data indicate a decrease in CONUS hot days TMAX >= 100°F

As part of his 2016 testimony to Congress, Dr. John Christy presented this chart:


Figure 1. The average number of 100°F days in the USHCN data set from Christy.

This...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Guess who the new climate ‘conspiracy theorists’ are?

When I first saw this published in the WaPo, I thought it was a joke: Why I’m trying to preserve federal climate data before Trump takes office.  Excerpts:

Trump is serious about overtly declaring war on...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Insiders are out; and outsiders are becoming the insiders.

There is much angst among the climate activists and scientist advocates about the Trump presidency, his public statements, and his Cabinet appointees — it doesn’t look good for their preferred energy...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Analysis of 1930s ‘Dust Bowl’ drought finds heat waves were preconditioned by unusually dry springs [link]

538 by Gavin Schmidt: Why We Don’t Know If It Will Be Sunny Next Month But We Know It’ll Be Hot All...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-09 - Original post - cached version

by David Gattie

The need for pragmatism, stability and resilience in energy policy for the U.S. power sector.

This article was originally posted at Plugged In, David Gattie’s blog on Energy, Environment and Policy.

This is a summary of a paper that will be published in the...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-06 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On experts, lukewarmers, and unhappy heretics.

Shortly after I started Climate Etc. in 2010, Scientific American published an article Climate Heretic Judith Curry Turns on Her Colleagues. I responded with a blog post Heresy and the Creation of Monsters. Climate...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The trappings of science can be decoupled from the actual rigor of science.

The trigger for this post is a recent article in the Atlantic, entitled How Will Trump Use Science to Further His Political Agenda?   The article provides some important insights, that are...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-02 - Original post - cached version

by Kip Hansen

Climate skepticism: a ‘perverse’ effect of ‘actively open-minded thinking’.

Dan M. Kahan and Jonathan C. Corbin, of the Cultural Cognition Project, have a new study titled “A note on the perverse effects of actively open-minded thinking on climate-change polarization...

Judith Curry - 2016-12-01 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

[W]e estimate that the warming slowdown (< 0.1 K/decade trend beginning in 1998) could persist, due to internal variability cooling, through 2020, 2025 or 2030 with probabilities 16%, 11%, and 6%, respectively. – Knutson et al.

A new paper by Tom Knutson, Rong...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Defending NASA’s Earth Science Division, in terms that the Trump administration can relate to.

There is much angst in the earth science community (particularly the climate science community) about statements made by President-elect Trump and his advisors.  A good...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-26 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The Antarctic 2016 sea ice anomalies [link] …

Chill: Antarctic ice is NOT rapidly melting experts say as logbooks from 100 years ago show levels unchanged [link]

Chilling climate revelations from the...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The Left has done far more than the Right to set back progress. – John Tierney

John Tierney has written a stunningly insightful piece in the City Journal Magazine:  The Real War on Science.  Read the whole thing.  Here are some excerpts of particular relevance to...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Urban Heat Island effect  in Hong Kong accounts for most ‘warming’ since 1970 [link] …

While the North Pole warms beyond the melting point, it’s freakishly cold in Siberia [link]

Where Trees Meet Tundra...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Design with the natural cycle in mind to ensure that carbon ends up in the right places. — William McDonough

Nature has published a provocative essay entitled Carbon is not the enemy (full text available online).  Excerpts:

Carbon has a bad name. 

But...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Finding common ground in the Age of Trump.

Alan Longhurst sent an interesting article (in French) that was recently published in LeMonde (english translation year-1-of-the-trumpocene).

Here is what caught my attention:

At a time when most scientists...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

So  . . . what can we expect from the Trump administration on environment/climate/energy?

There is much angst among the ‘greens’ about what to expect.  This is typified by this morning’s headlines from the Huffington Post:

SET TO BOIL:  Trump Racing to Scrap...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-13 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I have been asked to write an Expert Report on climate models.

***SEE UPDATE

UPDATE:  A final version of the report is attached [climate-models].  Thanks a ton to all who provided comments in the blog post and via email, I have incorporated many of these...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Jack Stilgoe and Roger Pielke Jr. have written a superb article on the response of scientists to the Trump presidency.

The reactions from scientists about a Trump presidency are predictable: a disaster for the climate and planet, threats to leave the country,...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A key message of this election is that the power of elites to persuade us has evaporated.

Two days ago, the Washington Examiner had a provocative article Death of Elitism:

The public no longer has faith in big banks or big companies or big government. And...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-07 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Reflections on forecasting hurricanes in light of U.S. landfalling Hurricanes Hermine and Matthew, highlighting the complexities of forecast ensemble interpretation.

A recent issue of the NYTimes Magazine has an article:  Why Isn’t the U.S. Better at Predicting...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-06 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Paul Voosen has written a remarkable article in Science about climate model tuning.

Background

In November 2009 following ClimateGate, I made a public plea for greater transparency in an essay published at ClimateAudit:  On the credibility of climate...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to changing Arctic [link]

The Blob is back: what warm ocean mass means for weather and wildlife [link]

The shortfalls of biodiversity [link]

Ancient...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Countdown to the U.S. Presidential election

I voted last week.

I haven’t had much time this week to check the news or twitter, here are a few articles that I’ve spotted (that aren’t just about the emails):

The case against Hillary Clinton [link]

...
Judith Curry - 2016-11-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Peter Webster has been awarded the Prince Sultan Bin Abdulaziz International Creativity Prize for Water.

Peter shares the Creativity Prize with Rita Colwell and Shafiqul Islam. The announcement for the awards and the citations are found [here].

Apart from...

Judith Curry - 2016-11-02 - Original post - cached version

by Rud Istvan

This post addresses issues related to  ‘vehicular decarbonization’. It is  an energy storage insider’s narrative of how tough a slog developing some of the requisite applied science technologies has been over the past decades. It is a saga of research twists and turns,...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A collection of articles on food and farms, related to climate change, sustainability, and broad environmental issues.

#Foodwaste & yard waste produce a lot of methane, but there are ways to reduce impact. [link]

Africa Transforming Agriculture To Combat...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

11 more days . . .

I haven’t flagged many posts for this week, just tooooo much . . .  Here are a few fun reads.

Camille Paglia:  Hillary Clinton is a disaster [link]

The real scientist behind @ScientistTrump. @ScientistTrump will make science great...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There is a problem with the practice of science. Because of poor scientific practices, and improper incentives, few papers with useful scientific findings are published in leading journals. The problem appears to be growing due to funding for advocacy research.

J....

Judith Curry - 2016-10-26 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

Separating out the impacts of internal variability on evaluations of TCR.

In a blogpost from May 2016 I did some simple investigations about the Transient Climate Response (TCR) as it’s observed. The starting point was the record of Cowtan/Way (C/W) and the Forcings...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-25 - Original post - cached version

by Lucas Bergkamp

 “The politician is sometimes tempted to encroach on the normal territory of the scientific estate. In such issues the problem is less often whether politics will presume to dictate to science than it is how much politics is to be influenced by the new findings of...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-24 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Insights into the debate on whether the Holocene will be long or short.

Summary: Milankovitch Theory on the effects of Earth’s orbital variations on insolation remains the most popular explanation for the glacial cycle since the early 1970’s. According to its defenders,...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Observed and simulated fingerprints of multidecadal climate variability [link]

Scientists accidentally turn pollution into renewable energy [link]

AER winter forecast for the US [link]

Current...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Ok, we’re getting down to the wire.

U.S. voters are starting vote, the final voting day is Nov 8.  There have been some ‘interesting’ articles this past week, for your consideration and discussion.

Policy positions

Both major candidates now have...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-17 - Original post - cached version

by Tomas Milanovic

There are few scientific concepts that are more often misunderstood in blog debates than Determinism and Predictability. For many commenters, these two concepts are considered to be in fact equivalent, which leads to faulty or irrelevant arguments.

Having read...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Well, actually, the past month; it’s been a while since I’ve done an energy thread.

Fossil fuels

Beginning of the end for fossil power [link]

Much of huge change in energy/co2 during Obama years...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

If Congress invests in seasonal weather forecast research, everyone wins. [link]

About those non-disappearing Pacific islands [link]

We’re placing far too much hope in pulling carbon dioxide out of the...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some new batch of hacked emails is saying Trump groped Bob Dylan according to Putin. – David Phinney

Wall Street Journal blasts press for consistently burying Hillary Clinton’s sins [link]

Trump and the Media [link]

The Presidential character [link]...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-14 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Steele

Although some researchers have raised concerns about possible negative effects of rising CO2 on ocean surface pH, there are several lines of evidence demonstrating marine ecosystems are far more sensitive to fluxes of carbon dioxide from ocean depths and the biosphere’s...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

We conclude that the observed cooling over central Eurasia was probably due to a sea-ice-independent internally generated circulation pattern ensconced over, and nearby, the Barents–Kara Sea since the 1980s. — McCusker et al.

Published earlier this week in Nature...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-11 - Original post - cached version

by Alan Longhurst

Because the climate change science community habitually concentrates attention on surface data from a very short recent period – nominally a little more than 100 years – it would be very interesting to know how the pattern habitually derived from these data compares with...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

This post is about the practical aspects of generating regional scenarios of climate variability and change for the 21st century.

The challenges of generating useful scenarios of climate variability/change for the 21st century were discussed in my presentation at...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

NASA: Megadrought Lasting Decades Is 99% Certain in American Southwest [link]

@chriscmooney pretty much (omission of track changes) nails it here on hurricanes & global warming [link]

Does #...

Judith Curry - 2016-10-05 - Original post - cached version

by Kip Hansen

Some reflections on NCAR’s Large Ensemble.

In her latest Week in review – science edition, Judith Curry gave us a link to a press release from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (which is managed by the University Corporation for Atmospheric Research under...

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