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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2018-04-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The coming revolution in numerical weather prediction [link]

Dessler, Mauritsen and Stevens:  The influence of internal variability on Earth’s energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-19 - Original post - cached version

by Garth Paltridge

An essay on the state of climate change science.

(1) Is the science of climate change ‘settled’?

The scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change(25), and as...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The final installment in the CE series on sea level rise.

1. Introduction

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has increased by about 8–9 inches since 1880, with about 3 inches occurring since 1993. As discussed in Part VI, scientists expect that GMSL will continue...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

New paper from Christy et al. corrects drift in NOAA-14 satellite, affected the trend by ~ 0.05 C/decade in the 1990s and the early 2000s. [link]

How extreme events are defined across disciplines and the...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-06 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

Attempting to breach the ENSO springtime  ‘predictability barrier.’

The springtime predictability barrier in ENSO predictions (Webster and  Yang 1992) arises from stochastic processes occurring in the tropical Pacific that are tied to the annual...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-29 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.

Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Major uncertainty of estimates of carbon trapped in soil [link]

A Geological Perspective of the Greenland Ice Sheet [link]

Next generation climate models could learn, improve on the fly [link]

...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-23 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.

In Part 1  the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-19 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity:  their nature and assessment of validity.

There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-11 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

A few days ago a paper (Sato et al) dealing with some aspects of the “Aerosol Cloud Interactions”, (ACI, also called “aerosol indirect effects”) was released. It bolsters the conclusions of earlier papers: the effective radiative forcing from ACI (ERFaci) is smaller than...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Suggestions for the climate ‘red team’ response.

This post is motivated by a twitter thread from Andrew Dessler that responds to a recent ruling in the Northern California versus the oil companies lawsuit (discussed previously here)

The judge posed 8...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-04 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Steele

 A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range of contributions to sea level rise. The greater the contribution from groundwater discharge, the smaller the adjustments used to amplify contributions from meltwater and thermal expansion...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-03 - Original post - cached version

by Tony Brown

This article examines the continued cooling of CET this century

Looks at a similar scenario of regional cooling in America Examines CET related urbanisation issues, and the current Met office allowances for this Notes the centuries long general warming of our climate....
Judith Curry - 2018-02-26 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Summary: Modern Global Warming has been taking place for the past 300 years. It is the last of several multi-century warming periods that have happened during the Neoglacial cooling of the past 3000 years. Analysis of Holocene climate cycles shows that the period 1600-2100 AD...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline [link]

New article: The Ross Sea Dipole – temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region,...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Part IV of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise focuses on the satellite era (since 1993), including the recent causes of sea level variations and arguments regarding the acceleration (or not) of recent sea level rise.

Part III considered historical sea level...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Big news in the world of ‘climate wars’ – the libel case of Andrew Weaver versus Tim Ball has been dismissed by the judge —  for a rather surprising reason.

Some context on all this is provided in a WUWT post by Tim Ball — Tim Ball’s Victory in the First Climate...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The real culprit behind snowmelt floods isn’t temperature – its dirt [link]

Pacific Islands Getting Bigger, Despite Rising Seas [link] 

New paper by Dan Lubin at Scripps: Cooling Sun May Partially Offset...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-10 - Original post - cached version

By Judith Curry

“We are in the uncomfortable position of extrapolating into the next century without understanding the last.” – Walter Munk 

Part II provided an overview of the relatively recent geological evidence for sea level variations. Part III considers the historical...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-05 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

As some readers may recall, I found six...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Inspiring biosketches of some amazing female scientists, which rather astonishingly includes moi.

While at the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society a few weeks ago, a number of people mentioned my Girls Rule(s) blog post, saying that it stimulated...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Paper of the week:

Decreasing cloud cover drives recent mass loss on the Greenland ice sheet

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s....

Judith Curry - 2018-01-26 - Original post - cached version

by Phil Salmon

How a small group of people from Africa changed the world.

Paleoclimatology, the study of climate in the past all the way back to deep time, is one of the pillars of climate science. It shows us the wide range of climates that have existed on earth, from near-global...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-24 - Original post - cached version

By Judith Curry

Part II of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise –the geological record provides context for the recent sea level rise.

Part I provided a context for examining observations and causes of global sea level rise. I greatly appreciate the comments on the blog posts...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-22 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Climate variations that alter the angular momentum of the atmosphere modify the speed of the Earth’s rotation, which affects the length of day (LOD). Alterations in LOD integrate different climate-affecting phenomena, and can anticipate turning points in climate.

Several...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The folks at the @metoffice put together an excellent explainer on 2017 temperatures. Differences between groups largely arise from how they deal with interpolation in polar regions. [link] …

Jim Hansen:...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Introduction and context for a new Climate Etc. series on sea level rise.

I have several clients that are interested in the issue of sea level rise, from a range of perspectives (insurance, engineers, city and regional planning, liability). I am preparing a...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Short summary: scientists sought political relevance and allowed policy makers to put a big thumb on the scale of the scientific assessment of the attribution of climate change.

Bernie Lewin has written an important new book:

SEARCHING FOR THE CATASTROPHE...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Happy New Year everyone!  My ‘prognostications’, hopes and goals for 2018.

Well 2017 was quite a year, as the U.S. and rest of the world adapted to President Trump.  It was quite a year for me personally also, my first year of retirement from university.

...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that have caught my eye these past weeks.

In a somewhat futile attempt at information management, I’m doing some ‘house cleaning’ of my online files, so that I have a fresh start for the new year.  New Year’s resolution is not to let more than two...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“I think open explorations of the ideological assumptions scientists bring into policy debates are not only welcome but often necessary for having productive conversations.” – Aaron Huertas

Over the Xmas holiday, I got involved in a wide ranging discussion on...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-25 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.

Introduction

I thank Patrick Brown for his detailed response (also here) to statistical issues that I raised in my critique “Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-22 - Original post - cached version

by Peter Lang

Could the costs of nuclear power have been 10% of what they are if not for the disruption?

A new paper, Nuclear Power Learning and Deployment Rates: Disruption and Global Benefits Forgone [1], finds that nuclear power could now be around 10% of current cost, and have...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-21 - Original post - cached version

by Patrick Brown

A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

We recently published a paper in Nature in which we leveraged observations of the Earth’s radiative energy budget to statistically constrain 21st-century climate...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-20 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified new early precursors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity that involve systematic, repeating interactions among ENSO, stratospheric circulations and regional North Atlantic processes.

...
Judith Curry - 2017-12-15 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

Last week a paper predicting greater than expected global warming, by scientists Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, was published by Nature.[1] The...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-14 - Original post - cached version

by Peter Hartley

Although technological progress can alter the relative costs of different energy sources, depletion inevitably must raise the costs of fossil fuels leading to their displacement by alternative energy sources. What energy technology will likely be used when fossil fuels...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-13 - Original post - cached version

by Larry Kummer

We’re told that climate change caused or intensified California’s wildfires — and that such fires are getting worse. As usual for such scary stories, these claims are only weakly supported by science — except for the ones that are outright fabrications.

...
Judith Curry - 2017-12-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The #MeToo movement is spawning considerable reflection in academia.  Here are some reflections and advice from a senior female scientist (moi) who came up through the academic system during the bad old days of the 1970’s and 1980’s, and who has mentored many young female...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-10 - Original post - cached version

by Telis Koskinas

On February 2017, Oroville Dam gained worldwide attention when its main spillway suddenly failed, seemingly without precedent, under natural operating conditions.

While thankfully no casualties were caused by this incident, its direct and indirect effects will be...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-02 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Summary: Holocene climate has been affected in different periods by several centennial to millennial solar cycles. The ~ 1000-year Eddy solar cycle seems to have dominated Holocene climate variability between 11,500-4,000 years BP, and in the last two millennia, where it defines...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-01 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

The good news: the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is over.  The bad news: it was an extremely active season, with substantial damage in the U.S. and the Caribbean islands. What caused this extremely active hurricane season, and was it foreseeable?

...
Judith Curry - 2017-11-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In private, climate scientists are much less certain than they tell the public. – Rupert Darwall

Rupert Darwall has written a tour-de-force essay “A Veneer of Certainty Stoking Climate Alarm“, which has been published by CEI [link to full essay].

Foreword...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

“The study’s authors estimate groundwater depletion in the United States could be responsible for releasing 1.7 million metric tons (3.8 billion pounds) of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year.”[link]

...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

National security implications of the rapidly changing global population dynamic.

Earlier this week, Peter Webster made a presentation at the National Security Forum on The coming global demographic imbalance [link] to the ppt presentation.

Below is the...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Red-teaming the the U.S. government’s Climate Science Special Report on the topic of sea level rise.

Steve Koonin as a new op-ed in the WSJ:  A Deceptive New Report on Climate.  that clarifies the need for a Climate Red Team.  Excerpts:

One notable example...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Mannian litigation gone wild. — Steve McIntyre

Details given by Michael Schellenberger in Environmental Progress:

Stanford University professor Mark Z. Jacobson has filed a lawsuit, demanding $10 million in damages, against the peer-reviewed scientific...

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