Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2019-05-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Validation of atmospheric reanalysis data sets in the Arctic. [link]

ENSO Normals: A New U.S. Climate Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends

Judith Curry - 2019-05-07 - Original post - cached version

by Garth Paltridge

On the costs and benefits of climate action.

Whether we should do anything now to limit our impact on future climate boils down to an assessment of a relevant cost-benefit ratio. That is, we need to put a dollar number to the cost of doing something now, a...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-04 - Original post - cached version

by Larry Kummer

The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-30 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Beto O’Rourke’s Climate Change Plan deserves a close look.

For those of you not in the U.S., Beto O’Rourke is one of the 20+ candidates vying for the Democratic Party nomination for the Presidential election in 2020.

A number of the candidates have endorsed...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change 

“India’s Depleting Groundwater: When Science Meets Policy”

Judith Curry - 2019-04-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Diversifying and securing energy supplies nationally and locally.

Since we’ve moved to Nevada and have been integrating into the local community, the most interesting thing we’ve come across is the National Security Forum of Northern Nevada (NSF). It turns out...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past few weeks.

Why did the trend of #Arctic #sea #ice loss accelerate after about 2000?” Meehl et al. (2018) offer an explanation. …

Antarctica’s iceberg graveyard could reveal the...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone

CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40% probability of weak El Niño conditions. – Forecast...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

For background, see these previous posts on climate sensitivity [link]

Here are some possibilistic arguments related to climate sensitivity.  I don’t think the ECS example is the best one to...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-30 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

Frank Bosse provided this Google translation of an interview published in Der Spiegel  -Print-Issue 13/2019, p. 99-101.   March 22, 2019

Excerpts provided below, with some minor editing of the translation.


Judith Curry - 2019-03-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

This post is Part II in the possibility series (for an explanation of the possibilistic approach, see previous post link).  This paper also follows up on a recent series of posts about RCP8.5 [link].

3. Scenarios of...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have missed, that could...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-26 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

” ‘I believe in science’ is an homage given to science by people who generally don’t understand much about it. Science is used here not to describe specific methods or theories, but to provide a badge of tribal identity.  Which serves, ironically, to demonstrate a lack of...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“For decades, scientists and policymakers have framed the climate-policy debate in a simple way: scientists analyse long-term goals, and policymakers pretend to honour them. Those days are over. Serious climate policy must focus more on the near-term and on feasibility...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Background paper on detection and attribution in CMIP6 [link]

What’s missing from Antarctic ice sheet loss predictions? [link]

Vegetation and climate change in the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert based on...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-19 - Original post - cached version

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

How sensitive is the Earth’s climate to greenhouse gases? Speaking about carbon dioxide in particular, how much would air temperatures increase if we doubled atmospheric concentrations of said gas?

This question lies at the heart of climate science....

Judith Curry - 2019-03-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

UN Report: 3-5C of Arctic warming is now locked in [link]

Factcheck: is 3-5C of Arctic warming now locked in? [link]

The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007 [link]

New report by...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

7. 21st century projections

 The effect of climate change on hurricanes has been a controversial scientific issue for the past several decades. Improvements in the capabilities of climate...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Changing available energy for extra tropical cyclones and associated convection in NH summer [link]

The residence time of Southern Ocean surface waters and the 100,000-year ice age cycle [link]


Judith Curry - 2019-03-08 - Original post - cached version

by Donald Rapp, Ralf Ellis and Clive Best

A review of the relationship between the solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume over the past 2.7 million years.


While there is ample evidence that variations in solar input to high altitudes is a “...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

An assessment of whether any of the impacts of recent  U.S. landfalling hurricanes were exacerbated by global warming.

6. Attribution: Recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes

During the past decade, the following continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes rank in...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-01 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick

Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. This, they point out, is the “gold standard” of...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Part III: is there any signal of global warming in landfalling hurricanes and their impacts?

5. Landfalling hurricanes

 Total basin and global hurricane statistics are most easily related to global and regional climate variability and change. However,...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-23 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye the past 4(!) weeks.

A hidden province of volcanoes in West Antarctica may accelerate sea level rise [link]

The Dominant Role of Extreme Precipitation Events in Antarctic Snowfall Variability


Judith Curry - 2019-02-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Part II:  what causes variations and changes in hurricane activity?

4. Detection and attribution of changes in hurricane activity

 If oceans are getting warmer as a result of climate change, so the argument goes, surely hurricane activity must increase as a...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I am preparing a new Special Report on Hurricanes and Climate Change.

This Report is easier than my Special Report on Sea Level and Climate Change.  Sea level and glaciers are very fast moving topics, whereas for hurricanes, the big picture conclusions haven’t...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Less than 3 months ago, I published my Special Report on Sea Level and Climate Change.  I remarked on what a fast moving field this was,...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-07 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some reactions from Wednesday’s Congressional testimony.

I’m starting this post while sitting in the Phoenix airport waiting for my delayed flight home (by the time I get home, I will have been up for 24 hours today/tomorrow).

Sometimes I wonder why I bother...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-06 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Natural Resources Committee Hearing on Climate Change will be livestreamed on their Facebook page.

Here is the link to the Hearing page [link], I have no idea if they will post the other written testimonies.

My written testimony is posted at [Curry...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I will be testifying on Wed in the House Natural Resources Hearing on Climate change.

That  is, I will be testifying provided that I can make it out of Reno today — we are on the tail end of the massive snow storm in the Sierras.  You may recall that last May, I...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-29 - Original post - cached version

by Kevin Murphy

A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those made in the Fourth National...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-26 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Important new paper analyzing troposphere/stratosphere measurements and implications for understanding climate change [link]

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections [...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-23 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950.  Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming....

Judith Curry - 2019-01-21 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended

There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications.

The first paper has a narrative that ‘the oceans are warming faster than we thought and now the ocean warming matches the climate model...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate [link]

Uncertainties in shoreline change reconstructions and projections...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-05 - Original post - cached version

by Alan Cannell

The new tropical lands: a carbon sink during formation and huge source of carbon dioxide and methane when lost to the sea.

Why do Sea Level Changes Always Stop at about the Same Heights?

Sea water levels in the Red Sea (Hannish Sill) shows that these have risen and...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-04 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

A demonstration that multidecadal variation since 1950 leads to overestimation of the Transient Climate Response (TCR).


Inspired by a recent paper ( Folland 2018), I try to replicate the annual development of the observed global mean...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine Hayhoe, co-author of the 4th National Climate Assessment Report.

So, should we...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Happy New Year!

In thinking about what to write for this post, I took a look at the previous end of year posts at Climate Etc.  In the early years of the blog, I focused on end of year blog statistics and CE’s ‘greatest hits’.  Some years I looked at other...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Global trends in wildfire and its impacts. “For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement” [link]


Judith Curry - 2018-12-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Re-evaluating the ocean conveyor belt [link]

More robust #climate projections of #Arctic sea ice only possible by improving physics in simulations e.g. accounting for melt ponds & the loss of drifting snow...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There is a disturbing story coming out of the University of Washington surrounding Cliff Mass.

In preparing this article, I have received material from a member of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. I also ran into another member...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-11 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections.

AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“Concerning the inability of expert knowledge to resolve environmental controversy and the pressing need for a pragmatic reframing of policy problems to allow for solutions based on bipartisan values.”

It’s been a while since I’ve done a post on this topic.  A new...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017 [link]

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and recent oxygen decline in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean [link] 

RMSS:  The troposphere...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Well, I hope you are not overdosing on the issue of sea level rise.  But this paper is somewhat different, a philosophy of science paper.  Sort of how we think about thinking.

I would appreciate any...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

The complete report can be downloaded here [Special Report- Sea Level Rise].

My preliminary compilation of information was provided in the 7 part Climate Etc. series Sea level rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-26 - Original post - cached version

The term ‘CAGW’  has both appropriate and inappropriate usage.


Rational Wiki says: ‘“CAGW”, for “catastrophic anthropogenic global warming”, is a snarl word (or snarl acronym) that global warming denialists use for the established science of climate change. A Google...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

The recently published U.S. National Climate Assessment shows that we are currently on track for RCP8.5.

The assumptions...


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