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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2019-07-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“The atmosphere bias of climate science makes it impossible for them to see geological forces and therefore, impossible for them to understand the earth’s climate.” – Thongchai

When conducting the literature survey for my report on sea level rise [link; see section...

Judith Curry - 2019-07-13 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Reviews of Geophysics:  Observing and modeling ice sheet surface mass balance [link]

Effects of variability in the Atlantic Ocean circulation [link]

“Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation...

Judith Curry - 2019-07-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

It’s getting worse.

About 5 years ago, I wrote two blog posts on climate scientists’ pre-traumatic stress syndrome:

Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: climate trauma survival trips Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: climate scientists speak out

Mother Jones has a...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

(http://bit.ly/2NfdWba ) 2,000 years of North Atlantic climate change and considers how ocean circulation may have contributed to historical climate shifts. More from  http://bit.ly/2Lkquvx .

New HadSST4.0 data...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some reflections, stimulated by yesterday’s Congressional Hearing, on the different strategies of presenting Congressional testimony.

Yesterday’s Hearing provided an ‘interesting’ contrast in approaches to presenting testimony, when comparing my testimony with...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change begins at 2 pm EDT.

The announcement for the Hearing is posted [here].  Based on previous...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-23 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On Tuesday June 25, I will be testifying before the House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change.

The announcement for the Hearing is...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

How valid conclusions often lay hidden within research reports, masked by plausible but unjustified conclusions reached in those reports.  And how the IPCC institutionalizes such masking errors in climate science.

In the previous post, we discussed the motivated...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Insights into the motivated reasoning of climate scientists, including my own efforts to sort out my own biases and motivated reasoning following publication of the Webster et al. (2005) paper

A recent twitter thread by Moshe Hoffman (h/t Larry Kummer) reminded me...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Runs that reduce sea ice also result in a significant decrease in the frequency and magnitude of extreme warm and cold temperature anomalies”. Reduction in northern mid-latitude 2-m temperature variability due to...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-13 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Politics versus science in attributing extreme weather events to manmade global warming.

If you follow me on twitter, you may have noticed that I was scheduled to testify before the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Jun 12 [link].  The subject of the Hearing...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone

CFAN predicts an active North Atlantic hurricane season season.

The Atlantic hurricane has begun.  We are off to an early start with one wimpy subtropical storm that lasted less than a day, and a small system that is trying to spin up in the Bay...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

QBO primer [link]

Periodicity disruption of a model quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial winds https://journals.aps.org/prl/accepted/2d072Y42Lef16d5ef7d47192a2a4f7c1d27a126c5 …

Influence of the QBO on...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Natural Resources Committee Subcommittee on Water, Oceans and Wildlife is holding a Hearing today on Responding to the Global Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

The link to the...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Validation of atmospheric reanalysis data sets in the Arctic. [link]

ENSO Normals: A New U.S. Climate Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends https://buff.ly/...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-07 - Original post - cached version

by Garth Paltridge

On the costs and benefits of climate action.

Whether we should do anything now to limit our impact on future climate boils down to an assessment of a relevant cost-benefit ratio. That is, we need to put a dollar number to the cost of doing something now, a...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-04 - Original post - cached version

by Larry Kummer

The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-30 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Beto O’Rourke’s Climate Change Plan deserves a close look.

For those of you not in the U.S., Beto O’Rourke is one of the 20+ candidates vying for the Democratic Party nomination for the Presidential election in 2020.

A number of the candidates have endorsed...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change  https://buff.ly/2IFU26o 

“India’s Depleting Groundwater: When Science Meets Policy” https://doi.org/10....

Judith Curry - 2019-04-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Diversifying and securing energy supplies nationally and locally.

Since we’ve moved to Nevada and have been integrating into the local community, the most interesting thing we’ve come across is the National Security Forum of Northern Nevada (NSF). It turns out...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past few weeks.

Why did the trend of #Arctic #sea #ice loss accelerate after about 2000?” Meehl et al. (2018) offer an explanation. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079989 …

Antarctica’s iceberg graveyard could reveal the...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone

CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40% probability of weak El Niño conditions. – Forecast...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

For background, see these previous posts on climate sensitivity [link]

Here are some possibilistic arguments related to climate sensitivity.  I don’t think the ECS example is the best one to...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-30 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

Frank Bosse provided this Google translation of an interview published in Der Spiegel  -Print-Issue 13/2019, p. 99-101.   March 22, 2019

Excerpts provided below, with some minor editing of the translation.

...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

This post is Part II in the possibility series (for an explanation of the possibilistic approach, see previous post link).  This paper also follows up on a recent series of posts about RCP8.5 [link].

3. Scenarios of...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have missed, that could...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-26 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

” ‘I believe in science’ is an homage given to science by people who generally don’t understand much about it. Science is used here not to describe specific methods or theories, but to provide a badge of tribal identity.  Which serves, ironically, to demonstrate a lack of...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“For decades, scientists and policymakers have framed the climate-policy debate in a simple way: scientists analyse long-term goals, and policymakers pretend to honour them. Those days are over. Serious climate policy must focus more on the near-term and on feasibility...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Background paper on detection and attribution in CMIP6 [link]

What’s missing from Antarctic ice sheet loss predictions? [link]

Vegetation and climate change in the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert based on...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-19 - Original post - cached version

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

How sensitive is the Earth’s climate to greenhouse gases? Speaking about carbon dioxide in particular, how much would air temperatures increase if we doubled atmospheric concentrations of said gas?

This question lies at the heart of climate science....

Judith Curry - 2019-03-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

UN Report: 3-5C of Arctic warming is now locked in [link]

Factcheck: is 3-5C of Arctic warming now locked in? [link]

The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007 [link]

New report by...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

7. 21st century projections

 The effect of climate change on hurricanes has been a controversial scientific issue for the past several decades. Improvements in the capabilities of climate...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Changing available energy for extra tropical cyclones and associated convection in NH summer [link]

The residence time of Southern Ocean surface waters and the 100,000-year ice age cycle [link]

Norwegian...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-08 - Original post - cached version

by Donald Rapp, Ralf Ellis and Clive Best

A review of the relationship between the solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume over the past 2.7 million years.

Abstract

While there is ample evidence that variations in solar input to high altitudes is a “...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

An assessment of whether any of the impacts of recent  U.S. landfalling hurricanes were exacerbated by global warming.

6. Attribution: Recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes

During the past decade, the following continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes rank in...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-01 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick

Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. This, they point out, is the “gold standard” of...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Part III: is there any signal of global warming in landfalling hurricanes and their impacts?

5. Landfalling hurricanes

 Total basin and global hurricane statistics are most easily related to global and regional climate variability and change. However,...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-23 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye the past 4(!) weeks.

A hidden province of volcanoes in West Antarctica may accelerate sea level rise [link]

The Dominant Role of Extreme Precipitation Events in Antarctic Snowfall Variability  buff.ly/2U3stFU

The...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Part II:  what causes variations and changes in hurricane activity?

4. Detection and attribution of changes in hurricane activity

 If oceans are getting warmer as a result of climate change, so the argument goes, surely hurricane activity must increase as a...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I am preparing a new Special Report on Hurricanes and Climate Change.

This Report is easier than my Special Report on Sea Level and Climate Change.  Sea level and glaciers are very fast moving topics, whereas for hurricanes, the big picture conclusions haven’t...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Less than 3 months ago, I published my Special Report on Sea Level and Climate Change.  I remarked on what a fast moving field this was,...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-07 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some reactions from Wednesday’s Congressional testimony.

I’m starting this post while sitting in the Phoenix airport waiting for my delayed flight home (by the time I get home, I will have been up for 24 hours today/tomorrow).

Sometimes I wonder why I bother...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-06 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Natural Resources Committee Hearing on Climate Change will be livestreamed on their Facebook page.

Here is the link to the Hearing page [link], I have no idea if they will post the other written testimonies.

My written testimony is posted at [Curry...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I will be testifying on Wed in the House Natural Resources Hearing on Climate change.

That  is, I will be testifying provided that I can make it out of Reno today — we are on the tail end of the massive snow storm in the Sierras.  You may recall that last May, I...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-29 - Original post - cached version

by Kevin Murphy

A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those made in the Fourth National...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-26 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Important new paper analyzing troposphere/stratosphere measurements and implications for understanding climate change [link]

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections [...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-23 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950.  Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming....

Judith Curry - 2019-01-21 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended

There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications.

The first paper has a narrative that ‘the oceans are warming faster than we thought and now the ocean warming matches the climate model...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate [link]

Uncertainties in shoreline change reconstructions and projections...

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