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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2019-09-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Indian Ocean warming can strengthen the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation [link]

Indian ocean warming trend reduces Pacific warming response to anthropogenic greenhouse gases: an interbasin thermostat...

Judith Curry - 2019-09-11 - Original post - cached version

by Dr. Paul Viminitz

Of the things I care most about, AGW is near the bottom. But because, as George W. Bush put it, either you’re with us or you’re against them, I think I’d rather be interestingly wrong than politically correct. Accordingly I rehearse what I take to be the case for AGW...

Judith Curry - 2019-09-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Doing so erodes scientific credibility — and distracts from the urgent need to shore up our vulnerability to storms’ impacts.

Here is the link to my op-ed in the National Review.  Full text below.

n the aftermath of Hurricane Dorian’s catastrophic impacts on...

Judith Curry - 2019-09-07 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I used to be concerned about ‘consensus enforcement’ on the topic of climate change.  Now I am concerned about ‘alarmism enforcement.’

Ever since Hurricane Katrina in 2005, any hurricane causing catastrophic damage has been seized upon  by climate alarmists as...

Judith Curry - 2019-09-01 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

By knowing or estimating where in the solar cycle we are we can get an estimate of the chances of a particular outcome even years ahead.

El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the main source of interannual tropical climate variability with an important effect on global...

Judith Curry - 2019-08-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Several papers of fundamental importance:

*Important new paper by Peter Minnett:  The response of the ocean thermal skin layer to variations in incident infrared radiation [link]

*A provocative paper...

Judith Curry - 2019-08-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My new manuscript is now available.

A link to my new paper ‘Climate Change: What’s the Worst Case?’ is provided here [worst case paper final (1)]

A few words on the intended audience and motivation for writing this:

First and foremost, this is written...

Judith Curry - 2019-08-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A new book by Oppenheimer, Oreskes et al. entitled ‘Discerning Experts: The Practices of Scientific Assessment for Environmental Policy‘ makes a case against consensus seeking in climate science assessments.

I have long railed against the consensus-seeking process...

Judith Curry - 2019-08-14 - Original post - cached version
The latest travesty in consensus ‘enforcement’, published by Nature. There is a new paper published in Nature, entitled Discrepancies in scientific authority and media visibility of climate change scientists and contrarians. . Abstract. We juxtapose 386 prominent contrarians with 386 expert...
Judith Curry - 2019-08-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

‘modern climate sensitivity is relatively low in the context of the geological record, as a result of relatively weak feedbacks due to a relatively low CO2 baseline, and the presence of ice and relatively small ocean...

Judith Curry - 2019-08-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Discussion thread on the new IPCC Report on Climate Change and Land.

The complete Report can be downloaded here [link].

I’m working on digesting all this, here are some articles that I’ve flagged on my twitter feed.

Comprehensive summary of the report...

Judith Curry - 2019-07-29 - Original post - cached version

by Andy West

The role of children in the culture of climate catastrophism

1.Serious scenarios for children: reality or culture?

1.1 Frightening our children: When do we find it acceptable to institutionally frighten children? While our first thought is perhaps that this...

Judith Curry - 2019-07-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Variability in decadal global temperature increases strongly with climate sensitivity [link]

1200 year reconstruction of temperature extremes in the northeastern Mediterannean region [link] Extreme heat years...

Judith Curry - 2019-07-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“The atmosphere bias of climate science makes it impossible for them to see geological forces and therefore, impossible for them to understand the earth’s climate.” – Thongchai

When conducting the literature survey for my report on sea level rise [link; see section...

Judith Curry - 2019-07-13 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Reviews of Geophysics:  Observing and modeling ice sheet surface mass balance [link]

Effects of variability in the Atlantic Ocean circulation [link]

“Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation...

Judith Curry - 2019-07-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

It’s getting worse.

About 5 years ago, I wrote two blog posts on climate scientists’ pre-traumatic stress syndrome:

Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: climate trauma survival trips Pre-traumatic stress syndrome: climate scientists speak out

Mother Jones has a...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

(http://bit.ly/2NfdWba ) 2,000 years of North Atlantic climate change and considers how ocean circulation may have contributed to historical climate shifts. More from  http://bit.ly/2Lkquvx .

New HadSST4.0 data...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some reflections, stimulated by yesterday’s Congressional Hearing, on the different strategies of presenting Congressional testimony.

Yesterday’s Hearing provided an ‘interesting’ contrast in approaches to presenting testimony, when comparing my testimony with...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change begins at 2 pm EDT.

The announcement for the Hearing is posted [here].  Based on previous...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-23 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On Tuesday June 25, I will be testifying before the House Oversight and Reform Environmental Subcommittee in a Hearing on Recovery, Resilience and Readiness – Contending with Natural Disasters in the Wake of Climate Change.

The announcement for the Hearing is...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

How valid conclusions often lay hidden within research reports, masked by plausible but unjustified conclusions reached in those reports.  And how the IPCC institutionalizes such masking errors in climate science.

In the previous post, we discussed the motivated...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Insights into the motivated reasoning of climate scientists, including my own efforts to sort out my own biases and motivated reasoning following publication of the Webster et al. (2005) paper

A recent twitter thread by Moshe Hoffman (h/t Larry Kummer) reminded me...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Runs that reduce sea ice also result in a significant decrease in the frequency and magnitude of extreme warm and cold temperature anomalies”. Reduction in northern mid-latitude 2-m temperature variability due to...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-13 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Politics versus science in attributing extreme weather events to manmade global warming.

If you follow me on twitter, you may have noticed that I was scheduled to testify before the House Oversight and Reform Committee on Jun 12 [link].  The subject of the Hearing...

Judith Curry - 2019-06-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone

CFAN predicts an active North Atlantic hurricane season season.

The Atlantic hurricane has begun.  We are off to an early start with one wimpy subtropical storm that lasted less than a day, and a small system that is trying to spin up in the Bay...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

QBO primer [link]

Periodicity disruption of a model quasibiennial oscillation of equatorial winds https://journals.aps.org/prl/accepted/2d072Y42Lef16d5ef7d47192a2a4f7c1d27a126c5 …

Influence of the QBO on...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Natural Resources Committee Subcommittee on Water, Oceans and Wildlife is holding a Hearing today on Responding to the Global Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services.

The link to the...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Validation of atmospheric reanalysis data sets in the Arctic. [link]

ENSO Normals: A New U.S. Climate Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends https://buff.ly/...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-07 - Original post - cached version

by Garth Paltridge

On the costs and benefits of climate action.

Whether we should do anything now to limit our impact on future climate boils down to an assessment of a relevant cost-benefit ratio. That is, we need to put a dollar number to the cost of doing something now, a...

Judith Curry - 2019-05-04 - Original post - cached version

by Larry Kummer

The Extinction Rebellion and the Green New Deal arouse fears of extinction for other species, and humanity. Only the complicit silence of climate scientists makes this possible. Compare the alarmists’ claims with what scientists said in the IPCC’s Fifth Assessment Report (...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-30 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Beto O’Rourke’s Climate Change Plan deserves a close look.

For those of you not in the U.S., Beto O’Rourke is one of the 20+ candidates vying for the Democratic Party nomination for the Presidential election in 2020.

A number of the candidates have endorsed...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Uncertainty quantification of the multi-centennial response of the Antarctic ice sheet to climate change  https://buff.ly/2IFU26o 

“India’s Depleting Groundwater: When Science Meets Policy” https://doi.org/10....

Judith Curry - 2019-04-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Diversifying and securing energy supplies nationally and locally.

Since we’ve moved to Nevada and have been integrating into the local community, the most interesting thing we’ve come across is the National Security Forum of Northern Nevada (NSF). It turns out...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past few weeks.

Why did the trend of #Arctic #sea #ice loss accelerate after about 2000?” Meehl et al. (2018) offer an explanation. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL079989 …

Antarctica’s iceberg graveyard could reveal the...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry and Jim Johnstone

CFAN’s 2019 ENSO forecast is for a transition away from El Niño conditions as the summer progresses. The forecast for Sept-Oct-Nov 2019 calls for 60% probability of ENSO neutral conditions, with 40% probability of weak El Niño conditions. – Forecast...

Judith Curry - 2019-04-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Are values of equilibrium climate sensitivity > 4.5 C plausible?

For background, see these previous posts on climate sensitivity [link]

Here are some possibilistic arguments related to climate sensitivity.  I don’t think the ECS example is the best one to...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-30 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

An insightful interview with Bjorn Stevens.

Frank Bosse provided this Google translation of an interview published in Der Spiegel  -Print-Issue 13/2019, p. 99-101.   March 22, 2019

Excerpts provided below, with some minor editing of the translation.

...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Is the RCP8.5 scenario plausible?

This post is Part II in the possibility series (for an explanation of the possibilistic approach, see previous post link).  This paper also follows up on a recent series of posts about RCP8.5 [link].

3. Scenarios of...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Are all of the ‘worst-case’ climate scenarios and outcomes described in assessment reports, journal publications and the media plausible? Are some of these outcomes impossible? On the other hand, are there unexplored worst-case scenarios that we have missed, that could...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-26 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

” ‘I believe in science’ is an homage given to science by people who generally don’t understand much about it. Science is used here not to describe specific methods or theories, but to provide a badge of tribal identity.  Which serves, ironically, to demonstrate a lack of...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“For decades, scientists and policymakers have framed the climate-policy debate in a simple way: scientists analyse long-term goals, and policymakers pretend to honour them. Those days are over. Serious climate policy must focus more on the near-term and on feasibility...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Background paper on detection and attribution in CMIP6 [link]

What’s missing from Antarctic ice sheet loss predictions? [link]

Vegetation and climate change in the Pro-Namib and Namib Desert based on...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-19 - Original post - cached version

by Alberto Zaragoza Comendador

How sensitive is the Earth’s climate to greenhouse gases? Speaking about carbon dioxide in particular, how much would air temperatures increase if we doubled atmospheric concentrations of said gas?

This question lies at the heart of climate science....

Judith Curry - 2019-03-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

UN Report: 3-5C of Arctic warming is now locked in [link]

Factcheck: is 3-5C of Arctic warming now locked in? [link]

The oceanic sink for anthropogenic CO2 from 1994 to 2007 [link]

New report by...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Final installment in my series on hurricanes and climate change.

7. 21st century projections

 The effect of climate change on hurricanes has been a controversial scientific issue for the past several decades. Improvements in the capabilities of climate...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Changing available energy for extra tropical cyclones and associated convection in NH summer [link]

The residence time of Southern Ocean surface waters and the 100,000-year ice age cycle [link]

Norwegian...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-08 - Original post - cached version

by Donald Rapp, Ralf Ellis and Clive Best

A review of the relationship between the solar input to high latitudes and the global ice volume over the past 2.7 million years.

Abstract

While there is ample evidence that variations in solar input to high altitudes is a “...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

An assessment of whether any of the impacts of recent  U.S. landfalling hurricanes were exacerbated by global warming.

6. Attribution: Recent U.S. landfalling hurricanes

During the past decade, the following continental U.S. landfalling hurricanes rank in...

Judith Curry - 2019-03-01 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick

Ben Santer et al. have a new paper out in Nature Climate Change arguing that with 40 years of satellite data available they can detect the anthropogenic influence in the mid-troposphere at a 5-sigma level of confidence. This, they point out, is the “gold standard” of...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Part III: is there any signal of global warming in landfalling hurricanes and their impacts?

5. Landfalling hurricanes

 Total basin and global hurricane statistics are most easily related to global and regional climate variability and change. However,...

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