Visit ArabTopics.com

Despite Trump's Psychosis, The Early Numbers Comparing San Francisco With New York Shows That Sheltering In Place Works

San Franciosco Chronicle writer Erin Allday asked why New York has ten times more COVID-19 cases than California, noting that "New York’s coronavirus outbreak has violently erupted over the past few days, and the state is now driving the national epidemic-- while on the West Coast, public health experts are wondering if an early and aggressive response saved California from a similar fate. California reported some of the earliest coronavirus cases in the United States in late January. And in the first week of March, California and New York were neck and neck on cases of COVID-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus. But over the past week, New York case counts have doubled every few days, and the state now has 10 times the cases California does: 25,000 to 2,500."

Swell.Life has a fascinating analysis of The Chronicle's question by founder and CEO/CTO Sudha K Varadarajan: Bay Area is Flattening the Curve-- Early data indicates effectiveness of Shelter in Place. Shelter in Place was instituted in the Bay Area before any other jurisdictions and without any federal support or mandate. "So far," writes Varadarajan, "the numbers seem to indicate that this was not only a wise decision but will help us come out of this far quicker than anyone else (provided we can limit people traveling into or outside of the Bay Area and continue to maintain social distancing). And quicker recovery will mean that the economic impact is likely to be much lower than what it would have been had we done this sometime later, after more cases were allowed to spread. Now, I must caveat this with it being early days. But the numbers appear to indicate that aggressive distancing and lock-down policies are highly effective when applied early."

The Bay Area put its Shelter in Place effective Mar 17. I have compared data from Mar 15 to about 6 pm PT on Mar, 22, which was the time of this writing. And, I will continue to update this article over the coming days with more data.

This article examines data from two major states in the US, namely CA and NY. It also looks at some regions within CA, including the Bay Area and Los Angeles County. And finally, it looks at CA vs the rest of the US as an aggregate. For the purpose of this article, Bay Area numbers use the aggregate numbers from the following counties: San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Santa Cruz, Solano, Sonoma and Napa.

Number of coronavirus tests conducted

There is no good data source I could find on this-- if you have any, please do send them my way. The best figures I could find indicate that California has conducted about 23,200 tests, New York has conducted 32,427 tests. These figures are about  a day or two old. The reason it is important to know how many have been tested is because I want to put aside the argument that NY has tested more and hence has reported more cases. The numbers indicate that both states have conducted similar numbers of tests on their population. 

Bay Area vs New York

First, let us compare the Bay Area to New York. On Mar 16, before shelter in place, we had 310 cases in the Bay Area with 5 deaths, and 950 in New York with 6 deaths. Here is how much the virus has spread in the past 6 days in these regions. The Bay Area is now at 786 cases and 13 deaths, while New York has 15168 cases and 114 deaths.

Bay Area vs California

On Mar 16, 310 of the 392 cases in California, or 79% of the cases, were in the Bay Area. Today, six days later, 786 of the 1555 cases in California, which is 50% of the cases, are from the Bay Area. The deaths have fallen from 83% (5 of 6 cases) to 44% (13 of 29 cases).

Santa Clara County vs Los Angeles County

In the Bay Area, on Mar 16, Santa Clara county accounted for 138 of the 310 (44%) cases and 4 of the 5 (80%) deaths. Shelter in Place was instituted in the Bay Area and so we compared it to Los Angeles County, which had 94 cases and 1 death on Mar 16 and now has 409 cases with 5 deaths.

California vs the US

We then look at California vs the rest of the US. California’s leadership acted early to institute social distancing effectively amongst its huge population. It is the most populous state in the country, with double the number of people in New York. The graph clearly indicates that California has been much more effective in flattening its curve compared to the rest of the country.

In summary, these are early days. But the early Shelter-in-Place by the Bay Area leadership and adherence by the community, appears to have made a huge difference in the spread of the virus in this community.

And speaking of San Francisco... Lawrence Ferlinghetti just turned 100-- and it sure looks like he's still going strong. He has a few words about the Trump Regime and its hangers-on (my interpretation).

Pity the nation whose people are sheep
   And whose shepherds mislead them
 Pity the nation whose leaders are liars
            Whose sages are silenced
  And whose bigots haunt the airwaves
 Pity the nation that raises not its voice
          Except to praise conquerers
       And acclaim the bully as hero
          And aims to rule the world
              With force and by torture
          Pity the nation that knows
        No other language but its own
      And no other culture but its own
 Pity the nation whose breath is money
 And sleeps the sleep of the too well fed
      Pity the nation oh pity the people
        who allow their rights to  erode
   and their freedoms to be washed away
My country, tears of thee

                   Sweet land of liberty

Source: 
Down With Tyranny

Dear friends of this aggregator

  • Yes, I intentionally removed Newsbud from the aggregator on Mar 22.
  • Newsbud did not block the aggregator, although their editor blocked me on twitter after a comment I made to her
  • As far as I know, the only site that blocks this aggregator is Global Research. I have no idea why!!
  • Please stop recommending Newsbud and Global Research to be added to the aggregator.

Support this site

News Sources

Source Items
James Bovard 29
WWI Hidden History 51
Grayzone Project 386
Pass Blue 333
Dilyana Gaytandzhieva 16
John Pilger 423
The Real News 367
Scrutinised Minds 29
Need To Know News 3210
FEE 5264
Marine Le Pen 403
Francois Asselineau 25
Opassande 53
HAX on 5July 220
Henrik Alexandersson 1169
Mohamed Omar 403
Professors Blog 10
Arg Blatte Talar 40
Angry Foreigner 19
Fritte Fritzson 12
Teologiska rummet 32
Filosofiska rummet 137
Vetenskapsradion Historia 188
Snedtänkt (Kalle Lind) 252
Les Crises 3623
Richard Falk 211
Ian Sinclair 129
SpinWatch 61
Counter Currents 11793
Kafila 600
Gail Malone 43
Transnational Foundation 221
Rick Falkvinge 95
The Duran 10998
Vanessa Beeley 197
Nina Kouprianova 9
MintPress 5975
Paul Craig Roberts 2394
News Junkie Post 66
Nomi Prins 27
Kurt Nimmo 191
Strategic Culture 5878
Sir Ken Robinson 25
Stephan Kinsella 114
Liberty Blitzkrieg 879
Sami Bedouin 65
Consortium News 2685
21 Century Wire 3993
Burning Blogger 324
Stephen Gowans 101
David D. Friedman 162
Anarchist Standard 16
The BRICS Post 1537
Tom Dispatch 608
Levant Report 18
The Saker 4943
The Barnes Review 582
John Friend 524
Psyche Truth 160
Jonathan Cook 162
New Eastern Outlook 4751
School Sucks Project 1812
Giza Death Star 2129
Andrew Gavin Marshall 15
Red Ice Radio 666
GMWatch 2550
Robert Faurisson 150
Espionage History Archive 35
Jay's Analysis 1136
Le 4ème singe 91
Jacob Cohen 219
Agora Vox 18712
Cercle Des Volontaires 452
Panamza 2521
Fairewinds 119
Project Censored 1224
Spy Culture 615
Conspiracy Archive 84
Crystal Clark 11
Timothy Kelly 631
PINAC 1482
The Conscious Resistance 987
Independent Science News 87
The Anti Media 6877
Positive News 820
Brandon Martinez 30
Steven Chovanec 61
Lionel 314
The Mind renewed 456
Natural Society 2627
Yanis Varoufakis 1097
Tragedy & Hope 122
Dr. Tim Ball 114
Web of Debt 162
Porkins Policy Review 453
Conspiracy Watch 174
Eva Bartlett 639
Libyan War Truth 361
DeadLine Live 1916
Kevin Ryan 68
BSNEWS 2115
Aaron Franz 265
Traces of Reality 166
Revelations Radio News 121
Dr. Bruce Levine 157
Peter B Collins 1746
Faux Capitalism 205
Dissident Voice 11700
Climate Audit 227
Donna Laframboise 502
Judith Curry 1177
Geneva Business Insider 40
Media Monarchy 2663
Syria Report 78
Human Rights Investigation 93
Intifada (Voice of Palestine) 1685
Down With Tyranny 13285
Laura Wells Solutions 49
Video Rebel's Blog 467
Revisionist Review 485
Aletho News 22494
ضد العولمة 27
Penny for your thoughts 3299
Northerntruthseeker 2700
كساريات 37
Color Revolutions and Geopolitics 27
Stop Nato 4856
AntiWar.com Blog 3379
AntiWar.com Original Content 7536
Corbett Report 2606
Stop Imperialism 491
Land Destroyer 1279
Webster Tarpley Website 1149

Compiled Feeds

Public Lists

Title Visibility
Funny Public