On Sunday, DWT went out on a limb-- not just making a random prediction about how many seats would flip red to blue but doing what so few pundits ever do-- predicting which seats would flip. It's the most optimistic view you've ever seen, partially because we follow the races on a granular level and partially because we picked up earlier than most that the determining issue for voters when they cast their ballots in a month would be what George Mason University's School of Policy and Government poll found this week as their #1 issue: Trump.The strength of Trump as a determinant-- at least in 69 seats the pollsters foresee as battleground districts-- isn't reflected in the poll, just that he's more important to a plurality of voters than the economy, the Supreme Court, health care, immigration, Putin-Gate, gun violence, tariffs or anything else. Why is this very bad for the GOP? Trump's job approval/disapproval among likely voters this weekend was a daunting 40/53%. And among Independents it is 38/53%. That's a GOP doomsday scenario.First thing Monday, Reuters sent out a piece by James Oliphant, State Of Play: Republicans fear Democratic 'blue wave' spreading to once-safe districts. The district he focused in on is in central Virginia-- Dave Brat's sprawling 7th district. Most of the voters live in the Richmond area, which doesn't seem very swingy at all. The PVI is R+6 and Trump beat Hillary there 50.5% to 44.0%. (It's worth noting that Hillary did about the same as Obama but that Trump did significantly worse than both McCain and Romney.) This cycle, Brat is being challenged by conservative Democrat and an ex-CIA agent Abigail Spanberger. As you see, the 538 Forecaster gives her just a 1 in 3 shot (32.3% chance) of ousting Brat. That's a very, very conservative view of the unfolding race.As of the June 30 FEC reporting deadline they had both raised about the same amount of money-- $1,347,694 for Spanberger and $1,319,825 for Brat. It barely matters in a wave election and in an election where most voters will have Trump on their minds when they cast their ballots.Oliphant picked up on the Trumpiness of the election. He starts by talking about two local women, one a Republican and one brainless enough to have not bothered to even vote in 2016. This time they both agree on one thing: "Donald Trump. They don’t like the president, and they weren’t about to vote for anyone, like Brat, who supports him."
Voters such as Sneed and Lesser are a significant reason why Democrats now believe that in the Nov. 6 congressional midterm elections, the party can win more than the 23 seats they need to seize control of the U.S. House of Representatives. Some predict Democrats could take as many as 40 seats by flipping districts like Brat’s in Virginia.Earlier this year, Brat’s seat was considered safe. But if a so-called “blue wave” materializes, it would roll through a district like his, which includes pockets of suburban voters who increasingly have been turning away from Republicans.“Republicans are playing defense in more and more places,” said Doug Heye, a former official at the Republican National Committee. “The Democrats’ map continues to get bigger. The Republicans’ map continues to get smaller. That’s a real problem.”Democrats have poured resources not only into Brat’s district, but others that have come onto their battleground list, in places such as Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Southern California and other parts of Virginia such as the district currently represented by Republican Scott Taylor....The firestorm over Supreme Court nominee Brett Kavanaugh, who was accused of sexual assault while in high school, came at a perilous moment for Brat, given his already difficult reputation with some women voters.Trump has played a part. Both Sneed and Lesser were angry that he chose to attack Kavanaugh’s accuser, Christine Blasey Ford, at a rally last week.“It was disgusting,” Lesser said....A 39-year-old former officer for the Central Intelligence Agency, Spanberger looks like she could be the face of the Resistance, the woman-driven protest movement against Trump.But she has been careful to not alienate the independent and moderate voters she needs to win the district. At the Spotsylvania event, she didn’t mention Trump, Brat or Kavanaugh, focusing on domestic-policy issues such as healthcare and education.Asked for her position on Kavanaugh’s nomination, her campaign declined to comment.Instead, Spanberger touched on the thing that attracted voters such as Meg Sneed to her: turning down the volume in the civic discourse.“We’ve reached a place where we need to restore a level of civility to our conversations,” she told the crowd.Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman from Virginia, said it remains Brat’s race to win, and that Kavanaugh may be the issue that pulls him over the finish line.“It’s still a southern district,” Davis said. “There’s nothing like a good fight to keep your base in line.”
Spanberger is counting on her base to stick with her because they hate Trump and Trump rubber-stamps like Brat. She's offering them nothing much at all and couldn't even come out against Kavanaugh. If the ant-red wave is big enough, garbage like Brat will be swept out and garbage like Spanberger will be swept in. If she wins she'll be a waste of a congressional seat-- something you'd expect from some idiot campaigning on "turning down the volume"-- and will be defeated in the anti-blue wave of 2022. Thanks for nothing, DCCC. And forget any of this stuff... The Dems will be the Scrooge Party of PAYGO.UPDATE: More Democrats RunningOver the weekend, Ballot Access News reported that Democrats have a candidate in 87.9% of the legislative contests. This is a big increase for the Democratic Party. In 2016, it had candidates in 79.4% of the races... The Republican Party also has more candidates up for legislative seats this year than in 2016. This year, Republican are in 79.2%. In 2016, 78.8%... Only four state units of the major parties have candidates in fewer than half the districts: the Republican Parties of Hawaii, Massachusetts, and Rhode Island; and the Democratic Party of Wyoming. If you don't show up, you can't win, no matter what happens.
