New NBC News/Marist polls of registered voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin caused a stir when they were released yesterday. Mark Murray reported that Señor Trumpanzee's job approval ratings in the 3 key Midwestern states are in the mid-30s. "In addition, Democrats enjoy double-digit leads in Michigan and Pennsylvania on the question of which party voters prefer to control Congress after the 2018 midterms, and they hold an 8-point advantage in Wisconsin. In all three states, more than six in 10 voters say Trump’s conduct as president has embarrassed them, compared to just a quarter who have said it’s made them proud."
In Michigan, 36 percent of voters approve of Trump’s job performance (including 19 percent who strongly approve), while 55 percent disapprove (including 40 percent who strongly do).In Pennsylvania, 35 percent give the president’s job a thumbs up (17 percent strongly), versus 54 percent who disapprove (41 percent strongly).And in Wisconsin, 34 percent of voters approve of Trump (17 percent strongly), compared with 56 percent who disapprove (42 percent strongly)....Ahead of next year’s midterm elections, the polls show that 48 percent of Michigan voters prefer a Democratic-controlled Congress, versus 35 percent who prefer a Republican-controlled one.In Pennsylvania, Democrats hold a 10-point advantage on congressional preference, 47 percent to 37 percent. And in Wisconsin, they have an 8-point edge, 46 percent to 38 percent.
The DCCC midterm strategy is basically to back conservative candidates in districts where Hillary beat Trump, by itself a very backward-looking strategy that is sure to guarantee the Republicans control of the House. So, for example, the DCCC declared early on that they would not be contesting any seats in Wisconsin, where Trump beat Hillary 1,405,284 (47.22%) to 1,382,536 (46.45%)-- a total Trump margin of 22,748 votes. Luckily for Democrats interested in winning back the House-- and for Democrats eager to see a big statewide turnout to help Senator Tammy Baldwin keep her Senate seat-- candidates are ignoring the DCCC in almost all the Wisconsin congressional district held by a Republican. The DCCC has managed to frighten off Democrats from challenging Sean Duffy (WI-07) and Mike Gallagher (WI-08), both potentially vulnerable Republicans in swing districts. Meanwhile the Wisconsin grassroots are forcing the DCCC's hand in WI-01, where this year's biggest electoral phenomenon, Randy Bryce, is challenging Paul Ryan, and in WI-06, where two Democrats-- Dan Kohl and Scott Olmer-- are waging a serious battle to take on radical right extremist Glenn Grothman. There are also two Democrats-- Ramon Garcia and Shawn Rundblade-- vying for the nomination to oppose Jim Sensenbrenner (WI-05).The DCCC can't comprehend Wisconsin. The state doesn't fit their one-dimensional cookie cutter model. Neither Clinton nor Trump won the primaries there.
• Bernie- 567,936• Ted Cruz- 531,129• Hillary Clinton- 432,767• Trumpanzee- 386,370
On primary day, Bernie + Clinton took 1,000,065 votes while Cruz + Trumpanzee took 917,499 votes. But the DCCC decided to raise the white flag over Wisconsin and just not even contest the state at all. Great thinking from the organization that has do-nothing but lose and lose and lose-- dozen and dozens of seats-- in the last decade. And now they're whining because Democrats won't want to fund them any longer. You'd be better off stuffing your dollars down a sewer than contributing to the DCCC.And compounding the problem-- bigly!-- Paul Ryan at the helm of CongressIn WI-01 Trump beat Clinton by nearly 10 points, a catastrophe but it never dawned on the geniuses at the DCCC to try to figure out that Hillary was the exact wrong candidate for the district. The voters there didn't like Trump at all but they judged him as the lesser of the two evils for their own and their families' aspirations. The one thing they knew they did not want was the status quo that Clinton represented. Now they're horrified by Trump. But look at the comparisons between how Trump did in the WI-01 counties and how Bernie did:
• Kenosha-- Bernie- 14,612; Trumpanzee- 11,139• Racine-- Bernie- 14,651; Trumpanzee- 11,756• Rock-- Bernie- 17,337; Trumpanzee- 10,264• Walworth-- Bernie- 8,405; Trumpanzee- 7,534
[Too much of Milwaukee and Waukesha counties are not in the district for their county numbers to be meaningful to this WI-01 comparison.] This comparison isn't about how Bernie would have won, but about how the DCCC is guilty of political malpractice by deciding to give up on WI-01 based on how badly Hillary did there. It is beyond their comprehension how terrible a candidate she was for districts like WI-01 and how what Bernie-- as well as Randy Bryce-- are offering exactly what WI-01 voters are looking for. Imagine if Bernie winds up in southeast Wisconsin campaigning for Randy Bryce. Really... close your eyes and imagine it. Go ahead. It's Paul Ryan's worst nightmare-- as well as something the DCCC couldn't possibly comprehend. They'd probably want to send Steny Hoyer, Nancy Pelosi, Ben Ray Lujan and Joe Crowley there instead.Among registered voters in Wiscosnin, the poll showed that 57% have an unfavorable view of the GOP (33% have a favorable view), while "only" 49% have an unfavorable view of the Democratic Party (39% favorable). 46% of voters say they want a Congress controlled by Democrats and only 38% say they would prefer a Congress controlled by the GOP. The Wisconsin voters were also asked if they have favorable of unfavorable impressions of the following politicians:
• Obama- 60% favorable/34% unfavorable• Bernie- 53% favorable/34% unfavorable• Scott Walker- 40% favorable/53% unfavorable• Tammy Baldwin- 39% favorable/34% unfavorable
Obviously all Democrats in Wisconsin have a 34% unfavorable rating. That's the hardcore Republican Party base reacting exactly how Fox News and Hate Talk Radio have taught them to react. Now look at this rather stunning survey that the DCCC ought to take a look at as well:That's a separate poll by PPP just of voters in WI-01, taken a few days after Ryan got House Republicans to vote to replace Obamacare with TrumpCare. It indicated that-- regardless of what the DCCC does-- Ryan will have a very tough time being reelected in 2018. The fact that Randy Bryce is proving to be one of the most effective-- if not iconic-- congressional candidates in any district anywhere in the country, never dawned on the DCCC when they made their 2018 calculations. Nor apparently did it dawn on CNN when they decided to give Paul Ryan what amounts to an infomercial tonight, while calling it a "town hall." People want a debate on real issues between Bryce and Ryan, not a series of pre-screened questions in front of a pre-screened audience, which is what Jake Tapper has agreed to. Please help Randy pay to run TV ads on the CNN Paul Ryan infomercial that CNN has banned him from. How? By tapping on the Stop Paul Ryan ActBlue thermometer on the right. Let me show you two more little charts, both showing twitter activity on the whole issue of fairness and CNN in regard to the favoritism they are showing towards Paul Ryan tonight. The first (on the bottom) was from Thursday and the second (the top one) was yesterday. You'll have to click on the images to be able to see the widespread enthusiasm for CNN to offer their viewers something worth watching instead of a canned Paul Ryan-Jake Tapper lovefest:
