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Climate Audit

Climate Audit - 2013-12-04 - Original post - cached version

In a previous post on PAGES2K Arctic, I pointed out that they had used the Hvitarvatn, Iceland series (PAGES2K version shown below), upside-down to the interpretation of the original authors (Miller et al), who had interpreted thick varves as evidence of the Little Ice Age. A few days ago,...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-29 - Original post - cached version

Recently, Robert Way drew attention to Shi et al 2013 (online here), a multiproxy study cited in AR5, but not yet discussed at CA.

The paper by Shi et al (2013) is fairly convincing as to at least the last 1,000 years in the Northern Hemisphere. I am actually surprised that...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-23 - Original post - cached version

As I was reading section 3 (Global temperature reconstruction) of the Cowtan and Way paper, I came across this text:

The HadCRUT4 map series was therefore renormalised to match the UAH baseline period of 1981-2010. For each map cell and each month of the year, the mean value...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-21 - Original post - cached version

As a preamble and reprise, I think that it is reasonable for Cowtan and Way to take exception with HadCRU’s failure to estimate temperature in Arctic gridcells and to propose methods for estimating this temperature. At a time when the climate community argued that differences between the major...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-18 - Original post - cached version

There has been some discussion of Cowtan and Way 2013 take on HadCRUT4 at Lucia’s, Judy Curry’s, Nick Stokes and elsewhere. HadCRUt4 has run cooler than other datasets (including UAH satellite) in recent years. Cowtan and Way observe that HadCRU does not estimate temperature in many Arctic...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-13 - Original post - cached version

Lewandowsky’s recent article, “Role of Conspiracist Ideation” continues Lewandowsky’s pontification on populations of 2, 1 and zero.

As observed here a couple of days ago, there were no respondents in the original survey who simultaneously believed that Diana faked her own death and was...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-11 - Original post - cached version

Edward Archer of the University of South Carolina, lead author of a scathing examination of U.S. federally-funded nutrition research, has written an even more scathing editorial in The Scientist (here) (H/t Margaret Wente of the Toronto Globe and Mail here.)

Some quotes:

...
Climate Audit - 2013-11-10 - Original post - cached version

Mann rose to prominence by supposedly being able to detect “faint” signals using “advanced” statistical methods. Lewandowsky has taken this to a new level: using lew-statistics, lew-scientists can deduce properties of population with no members. Josh summarizes the zen of lew-statistics as...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-07 - Original post - cached version

Another bogus claim from Lewandowsky would hardly seem to warrant a blog post, let alone a bogus claim about people holding contradictory beliefs. The ability of many climate scientists to hold contradictory beliefs at the same time has long been a topic of interest at climate blogs (Briffa’s...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-06 - Original post - cached version

A trivia question today for CA readers.
Most readers are aware of the picture of Scott Mandia of the “Climate Rapid Response Team” in spandex Superman uniform, though, as a costumed vigilante, Mandia would arguably be more the hapless Defendor than the aspirational Superman.

CA...

Climate Audit - 2013-11-03 - Original post - cached version

There has been considerable recent attention to Rosenthal et al 2013: WUWT here, Judy Curry here, Andy Revkin here.

The article itself presents a Holocene temperature reconstruction that is very much at odds both with Marcott et al 2013 and Mann et al 2008. And, only a few weeks after...

Climate Audit - 2013-10-28 - Original post - cached version

A question for readers: which of the following proxies are used to reconstruct past Southern Hemisphere temperature in the IPCC’s graphic (Figure 5.7b) showing SH reconstructions:

1. Graybill’s California strip-bark bristlecone chronologies
2. upside down and contaminated Finnish...

Climate Audit - 2013-10-26 - Original post - cached version

Gifford Miller’s most recent study on radiocarbon dates of Baffin Island moss has attracted recent publicity, including covers at Judy Curry, WUWT and Jim Bouldin, due to its claim to have demonstrated that the present is the warmest in 44000 years.

Over the past decade, Miller has been...

Climate Audit - 2013-10-21 - Original post - cached version

http://narrative.ly/pieces-of-mind/nick-brown-smelled-bull/ h/t Mosher.

Climate Audit - 2013-10-08 - Original post - cached version

AR5 Second Order Draft (SOD) Figures 1.4 and 1.5 showed the discrepancy between observations and projections from previous assessment reports. SOD Figure 1.5 (see below as annotated) directly showed the discrepancy for AR4 without additional clutter from earlier assessment reports. Even though...

Climate Audit - 2013-10-01 - Original post - cached version

Figure 1.4 of the Second Order Draft clearly showed the discrepancy between models and observations, though IPCC’s covering text reported otherwise. I discussed this in a post leading up to the IPCC Report, citing Ross McKitrick’s article in National Post and Reiner Grundmann’s post at...

Climate Audit - 2013-09-30 - Original post - cached version

A few days ago, Jochem Marotzke, an IPCC Coordinating Lead Author and, according to Der Spiegel, “president of the German Climate Consortium and Germany’s top scientific representative in Stockholm”, was praised (e.g. Judy Curry here) for his promise that the IPCC would address the global...

Climate Audit - 2013-09-24 - Original post - cached version

There is much in the news about how IPCC will handle the growing discrepancy between models and observations – long an issue at skeptic blogs. According to BBC News, a Dutch participant says that “governments are demanding a clear explanation” of the discrepancy. On the other hand, Der Spiegel...

Climate Audit - 2013-09-11 - Original post - cached version

Though I haven’t posted for a while, I’ve done quite a bit of work on climate recently, though it hasn’t been the sort of work that lends itself readily to blog posts.

I made a presentation at a workshop session in Erice in the third week of August, which, at Chris Essex’ request, was...

Climate Audit - 2013-08-02 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, I want to discuss Lewandowsky’s backdating of the blogpost in which he purported to “out” four skeptics, a claim that he re-iterated and embellished in a subsequent academic article, Lewandowsky et al (Fury). In response to a recent FOI request by Simon Turnill, the University...

Climate Audit - 2013-07-26 - Original post - cached version

As many readers have already surmised, the “GCM-Q” model that visually out-performed the Met Office CMIP5 contribution (HadGEM2) originated with Guy Callendar, and, in particular, Callendar 1938 (QJRMS). My attention was drawn to Callendar 1938 by occasional CA reader Phil Jones (see here and...

Climate Audit - 2013-07-21 - Original post - cached version

Anti-lukewarmers/anti-skeptics have a longstanding challenge to lukewarmers and skeptics to demonstrate that low-sensitivity models can account for 20th century temperature history as well as high-sensitivity models. (Though it seems to me that, examined closely, the supposed hindcast excellence...

Climate Audit - 2013-07-19 - Original post - cached version

In a recent post, I noted the discrepancy between the UK Met OFfice contribution to IPCC AR5 and observations (as many others have observed), a discrepancy that is also evident in the “initialized” decadal forecast using the most recent model (HadGEM3). I thought that it would be interesting to...

Climate Audit - 2013-07-17 - Original post - cached version

In yesterday’s post, I observed that Nature’s recent news article on Met Office decadal forecasts failed to show the most recent Met Office decadal forecast and that its inclusion would not have permitted the Nature headline. I also showed the large change from the Met Office submission to IPCC...

Climate Audit - 2013-07-15 - Original post - cached version

Earlier this year, David Whitehouse of GWPF drew attention to a striking decrease in the UK Met Office decadal temperature forecast, that had been quietly changed by the Met Office on Christmas Eve. Whitehouse’s article led to some contemporary interest in Met Office decadal forecasts. The Met...

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