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Climate Audit

Climate Audit - 2015-03-14 - Original post - cached version

 

 

Josh portrays what a sensible decision in Weaver v National Post would have looked like.

Climate Audit - 2015-03-13 - Original post - cached version

In 2005, serial litigant Andrew Weaver, now a politician but then an academic at University of Victoria active in public controversy, threatened Climate Audit about alleged defamatory remarks.  I asked Weaver to explain why the seemingly innocuous remarks (by John A, not myself) were supposedly...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-11 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, I’ll show that even Andrew Weaver was tricked by Mann’s IPCC 2001 hide-the-decline. Weaver’s incorrect belief that the IPCC diagram showed “four” “independent” “hockey sticks” constructed using “different techniques” led him to believe that the research was much solider than it...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-11 - Original post - cached version

Last year, Karl Rove was reported to have suggested that Hillary Clinton had brain damage:

Karl Rove stunned a conference when he suggested Hillary Clinton may have brain damage. Onstage with Robert Gibbs and CBS correspondent and “Spies Against Armageddon” co-author Dan Raviv...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-08 - Original post - cached version

One of the more startling aspects of Andrew Weaver’s libel case was Weaver’s claim that it was defamatory in Canada to say, even in an opinion column, that Weaver had called for Pachauri’s resignation or even a change in leadership at IPCC.   It was even more startling that novice judge Emily...

Climate Audit - 2015-02-27 - Original post - cached version

In Andy Revkin’s article about Pachauri’s resignation, Revkin, apparently without awareness of the irony, included the following quotation from Grist (from The Hindu in India).

Some in India are also calling for Pachauri to step down from The Energy and Resources Institute (...

Climate Audit - 2015-02-23 - Original post - cached version

Andrew Weaver has been taking a victory lap following the recent decision in his favor by rookie judge Emily Burke. In previous commentary about Mann v Steyn, I’ve made some snide remarks about the competence of D.C. trial court judge Combs-Greene, either implying or stating that Canadian courts...

Climate Audit - 2015-02-05 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis

Introduction

A new paper in Nature by Jochem Marotzke and Piers Forster: ‘Forcing, feedback and internal variability in global temperature trends’[i] investigates the causes of the mismatch between climate models that simulate a strong increase in...

Climate Audit - 2015-01-22 - Original post - cached version

One of my long-standing interests is the location of ocean sediment series that enable apples-to-apples comparison of the 20th century to the mid-Holocene.   These are not nearly as common as one would think.   Ocean sediment series covering the Holocene typically stop prior to the 20th century...

Climate Audit - 2015-01-09 - Original post - cached version

The MD99-2275 core offshore Iceland is a very high-resolution ocean sediment core, results of which over the past millennium have been discussed here from time to time. Alkenone and diatom results for the last millennium have been available for about 10 years. MD99-2275 results were used in...

Climate Audit - 2015-01-08 - Original post - cached version

Jeff Norman draws attention to Figure 1 in a new Mannian tirade, a variation of Mann’s stump speech in which he, as usual, tries to blame his own errors and tricks (the censored directory, verification r2 of 0, upside-down Mann, hide the decline) on right-wing interests.  Amusingly, his new...

Climate Audit - 2015-01-06 - Original post - cached version

One of the most bizarre conclusions of D.C. Judge Combs-Greene were her findings that it was actionable to  “question [Mann’s] intellect and reasoning” and that calling his work “intellectually bogus” was “tantamount to an accusation of fraud”.  These absurd findings are all the more remarkable...

Climate Audit - 2015-01-03 - Original post - cached version

In some recent posts, I’ve observed that Carvin made a couple of astonishing gaffes in his oral argument.  In today’s post, I’ll comment on the worst one.  First, I’ll report the exchange without context.  I presume that 99.99% of Climate Audit readers will spot the gaffe immediately.  Read and...

Climate Audit - 2015-01-01 - Original post - cached version

Towards the end of Carvin’s mostly cringeworthy rebuttal,  he seemed to score on EPA’s rejection of complaints against Mann’s own defamatory accusations of “scientific fraud”.  EPA had found that Mann’s use of the term “fraud” meant no more than he believed the articles to be “scientifically...

Climate Audit - 2014-12-23 - Original post - cached version

I have an audio copy of the oral argument in Mann v Steyn, which I’ve posted up (see link at the end of this post). One of things often under-estimated by those readers (especially at WUWT) who are bloodthirsty for litigation as a means of settling scores is that it’s not easy for litigation...

Climate Audit - 2014-12-20 - Original post - cached version

IPCC Lead Author Sven Teske, as alertly observed by Shub Niggurath, was one of the leaders of the vandalism of the Nazca lines during the recent Lima conference.

Several years ago, I had criticized Teske in his role as IPCC Lead Author, a criticism also taken up by Mark Lynas.

...

Climate Audit - 2014-12-19 - Original post - cached version

A couple of days ago, Greg Laden published a response from Malcolm Hughes to my recent Sheep Mountain article. In today’s post, I’ll show that the “response” was both unresponsive and absurd.

In my article, I had compared recent (“out-of-sample”) values of the Sheep Mountain chronology...

Climate Audit - 2014-12-11 - Original post - cached version

Judy Curry recently noted that Phil Jones’ 2014 temperature index (recently the subject of major adjustments in methodology) might be a couple of hundredths of degree higher than a few years ago and alerted her readers to potential environmental NGO triumphalism. Unsurprisingly, it has also been...

Climate Audit - 2014-12-04 - Original post - cached version

Several weeks ago,  a new article (open access) on Sheep Mountain (Salzer et al 2014 , Env Res Lett) was published, based on updated (to 2009) sampling at Sheep Mountain.

One of the longstanding Climate Audit challenges to the paleoclimate community, dating back to the earliest CA posts,...

Climate Audit - 2014-11-25 - Original post - cached version

Mann v CEI, National Review, Simberg, Steyn and their amici is being argued today. Amici for Steyn, CEI, Simberg and NR include: American Civil Liberties Union, the Reporters Committee for Freedom of the Press, American Society of News Editors, the Association of Alternative Newsmedia, the...

Climate Audit - 2014-11-25 - Original post - cached version

I’ve been re-examining SH proxies for some time now, both in connection with PAGES2K and out of intrinsic relevance.  In today’s post, I’ll report on a new (relatively) high-resolution series from  the Arabian Sea offshore Pakistan (Boll et al 2014, Late Holocene primary productivity and sea...

Climate Audit - 2014-11-22 - Original post - cached version

Reflecting on then current scandals in psychology arising from non-replicable research,  E. Wagenmakers, a prominent social psychologist,  blamed many of the problems on “data torture”.  Wagenmakers attributed many data torture problems on ex post selection of methods. In today’s post, I’ll show...

Climate Audit - 2014-11-14 - Original post - cached version

Nature’s policies on plagiarism state:

Duplicate publication, sometimes called self-plagiarism, occurs when an author reuses substantial parts of his or her own published work without providing the appropriate references.

The description of the...

Climate Audit - 2014-11-11 - Original post - cached version

Only two Gergis proxies (both tree ring) go back to the medieval period: Oroko Swamp, New Zealand and Mt Read, Tasmania, both from Ed Cook.  Although claims of novelty have been made for the Gergis reconstruction, neither of these proxies is “new”, with both illustrated in AR4 and Mt Read being...

Climate Audit - 2014-11-07 - Original post - cached version

The calculation of the PAGES2K regional average contains a very odd procedure that thus far has escaped commentary. The centerpiece of the PAGES2K program was the calculation of regional reconstructions in deg C anomalies. Having done these calculations, most readers would presume that their...

Climate Audit - 2014-11-01 - Original post - cached version

The revised PAGES2K Arctic reconstruction used 56 proxies (down three from the original 59).  Although McKay and Kaufman 2014 didn’t mention the elephant in the room changes in their reconstruction (as discussed at CA here here), they reported with some satisfaction that “decadal-scale...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-29 - Original post - cached version

The money quote in the PAGES2K abstract was that there wasn’t any worldwide Little Ice Age of Medieval Warm Period and that AD1971-2000 temperatures were the highest in nearly 1400 years, long before the Medieval Period:

There were no globally synchronous multi-decadal warm or...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-28 - Original post - cached version

PAGES2K (2013) unequivocally stated that the Arctic was “warmest during the 20th century”:

The Arctic was also warmest during the twentieth century, although warmer during 1941–1970 than 1971–2000 according to our reconstruction.

McKay and Kaufman 2014 did...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-18 - Original post - cached version

About eight weeks ago, Jean S postulated that Gavin Schmidt had been involved in writing the documents supporting EPA’s decision denying various petitions for reconsideration of the Endangerment Finding (the “RTP documents“), documents that Mann had cited to the D.C. Court as a supposedly  “...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-13 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, I’m going to discuss an important new 1000-year chronology from northern treeline spruce in Quebec (Gennaretti et al 2014, PNAS here).  The chronology is interesting on multiple counts.  This is the first Quebec northern treeline chronology to include the medieval warm period.  ...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-11 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, Jean S and I are going to show that the paico reconstruction, as implemented in the present algorithm, is very closely approximated by a weighted average of the proxies, in which the weights are proportional to the number of measurements.  Paico is a methodology introduced in...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-11 - Original post - cached version

Shortly after the publication of PAGES2K, I pointed out that the Igaliku lake sediment proxy, had been contaminated by modern agricultural runoff. The post attracted many comments.

Nick Stokes vigorously opposed the surmise that the Igaliku series had been contaminated by modern...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-08 - Original post - cached version

The PAGES2K (2013) Arctic reconstruction of Kaufman et al has attracted considerable attention as a non-Mannian hockey stick. However, it’s been fraught with problems since day one, including a major re-statement of results in August 2014 (McKay and Kaufman, 2014 pdf), in which Kaufman conceded...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-05 - Original post - cached version

Does it matter whether proxies are used upside-down or not?

Maybe not in Mann-world (where, in response to our criticism at PNAS, Mann claimed that it was impossible for him to use series upside-down).  But, unlike Mann, Darrell Kaufman acknowledges responsibility for using proxies upside...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-04 - Original post - cached version

The recent revisions to PAGES2K included a dramatic flipping of the Hvitarvatn varve series to the opposite orientation used in the 2013 version used in IPCC AR5. Together with other changes (such as a partial – but still incomplete – removal of contaminated sediments from the Igaliku series),...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-01 - Original post - cached version

Kaufman and the PAGES2K Arctic2K group recently published a series of major corrections to their database, some of which directly respond to Climate Audit criticism. The resulting reconstruction has been substantially revised with substantially increased medieval warmth. His correction of the...

Climate Audit - 2014-10-01 - Original post - cached version

Stokes’ most recent post, entitled “What Steve McIntyre Won’t Show You Now”, contains a series of lies and fantasies, falsely claiming that I’ve been withholding MM05-EE analyses from readers in my recent fisking of ClimateBaller doctrines, falsely claiming that I’ve “said very little about...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-30 - Original post - cached version

ClimateBallers are extremely suspicious of the MM05 simulation methodology, to say the least.  A recurrent contention is that we should have removed the climate “signal” from the NOAMER tree ring network before calculating parameters for our red noise simulations, though it is not clear how you...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-28 - Original post - cached version

In MM05,  we quantified the “hockeystick-ness” of a series as the difference between the 1902-1980 mean (the “short centering” period of Mannian principal components) and the overall mean (1400-1980), divided by the standard deviation – a measure that we termed its “Hockey Stick Index (HSI)”.  ...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-28 - Original post - cached version

In MM05, we quantified the hockeystick-ness of simulated PC1s as the difference between the 1902-1980 mean (the “short centering” period of Mannian principal components) and the overall mean (1400-1980), divided by the standard deviation – a measure that we termed its “Hockey Stick Index (HSI...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-26 - Original post - cached version

I’m not sure McIntyre knows what ‘splicing’ is.  To me it means cutting and joining two ends together.  All Mann did was plot instrumental temperatures on the same axes, but he showed the whole record.

Dana Nuccitelli

There still seems to be a lot of...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-26 - Original post - cached version

Online here.  CEI     NR

Climate Audit - 2014-09-24 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nic Lewis

When the Lewis & Crok report “A Sensitive Matter” about climate sensitivity in the IPCC Fifth Assessment Working Group 1 report (AR5) was published by the GWPF in March, various people criticised it for not being peer-reviewed. But peer review is for research...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-24 - Original post - cached version

Over the past year or so, Mann’s “ClimateBall” defenders have taken an increasing interest in trying to vindicate Mannian principal components, the flaws of which Mann himself has never admitted.  Indeed, in Mann’s self-serving Hockey Stick Wars, Mann once again claimed that the defective method...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-22 - Original post - cached version


Today I will review the timeline of the above WMO 1999 graph in the light of the ClimateGate (CG) letters. The main events took place on Tuesday, November 16th, 1999.

Things start rolling 9 AM (UK time), when Tim Osborn sends  the new Briffa and recalibrated Jones (1998) time...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-11 - Original post - cached version

In a recent post, I reported on the diagram in Jones 1998 (Science), which pushed hide-the-decline a year earlier than my previous inventory. (The Briffa bodge, an earlier technique, dates back to 1992 and Jones 1998 is a sort-of transition from the Briffa bodge to truncation as hide-the-decline...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-10 - Original post - cached version

Jean S has spotted a highly amusing entry in Mann’s CV. The entry yields yet another porky in Mann’s pleadings.

The Muir Russell panel had conceded that the WMO 1999 diagram and related IPCC 2001 diagrams (the two most discussed hide-the-decline diagrams) were “misleading”. CEI...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-07 - Original post - cached version

In a twitter exchange among Jean S, Ronan Connolley and Tim Osborn, Ronan drew attention to an early spaghetti graph in a comment on MBH98 published by Phil Jones in Science on the day after (Apr 24, 1998) publication of Mann et al 1998. The Briffa reconstruction is in purple below. Like IPCC...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-04 - Original post - cached version

Michael Mann’s reply brief in the Court of Appeals has been posted here. Its main points are very similar to their reply memoranda of January 2013 (to CEI; near identical to NR)

Some comments have been accumulating on an unrelated topic. Please comment on this thread. I’ll try to write...

Climate Audit - 2014-09-03 - Original post - cached version

PCA was also performed on certain proxy sub-networks (spatially dense regional networks of tree-ring data available separately in different continents) as means of dimensional reduction of the predictor network. In this case, the procedure was performed separately for each...

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