Climate Audit

Climate Audit - 2016-05-06 - Original post - cached version

In my most recent post,  I discussed yet another incident in the long running dispute about the inconsistency between models and observations in the tropical troposphere – Gavin Schmidt’s twitter mugging of John Christy and Judy Curry.   Included in Schmidt’s exchange with Curry was a diagram...

Climate Audit - 2016-04-19 - Original post - cached version

In the past few weeks, I’ve been re-examining the long-standing dispute over the discrepancy between models and observations in the tropical troposphere.  My interest was prompted in part by Gavin Schmidt’s recent attack on a graphic used by John Christy in numerous presentations (see recent ...

Climate Audit - 2016-03-21 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nic Lewis


In a recent article I discussed Bayesian parameter inference in the context of radiocarbon dating. I compared Subjective Bayesian methodology based on a known probability distribution, from which one or more values were drawn at random,...

Climate Audit - 2016-03-12 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nic Lewis

I reported in a previous post, here, a number of serious problems that I had identified in Marvel et al. (2015): Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on...

Climate Audit - 2016-03-02 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nic Lewis


In April 2014 I published a guest article about statistical methods applicable to radiocarbon dating, which criticised existing Bayesian approaches to the problem. A standard – subjective Bayesian – method of inference about the true calendar age...

Climate Audit - 2016-02-27 - Original post - cached version

Gerry Browning writes:

The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models

The system of equations numerically approximated by both weather and climate models is called the hydrostatic system. Using a scale analysis for mid-latitude large scale motions in the...

Climate Audit - 2016-02-15 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, I’m going to critically examine another widely used tree ring chronology: the Icefields (Alberta) MXD RCS chronology of Luckman and Wilson (2005 pdf), used most recently in Wilson et al 2016.

I’ll show that the RCS technique used in the LW2005 MXD chronology eliminated...

Climate Audit - 2016-02-14 - Original post - cached version

Last week, I posted on the effect of ex post site selection on the Gulf of Alaska tree ring chronology used in Wilson et al 2016 (from Wiles et al 2014).  An earlier incarnation of this chronology (in D’Arrigo et al 2016) had had a severe divergence problem, a problem that Wiles et al had...

Climate Audit - 2016-02-12 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis


Gavin Schmidt has finally provided, at the GISS website, the iRF and ERF forcing values for a doubling of CO2 (F2xCO2) in GISS-E2-R, and related to this has made wholesale corrections to the results of Marvel et al. 2015 (MEA15). He has...

Climate Audit - 2016-02-08 - Original post - cached version

Wilson et al 2016, like D’Arrigo et al 2006, includes a ‘Polar Urals’ chronology as one of its components.  Tree ring chronologies from Polar Urals and Yamal have long been a contentious issue at Climate Audit, dating back to the earliest days (see tags Yamal, Polar Urals).

Whereas the D’...

Climate Audit - 2016-02-03 - Original post - cached version

The bias arising from ex post selection of sites for regional tree ring chronologies has been a long standing issue at Climate Audit, especially in connection with Briffa’s chronologies for Yamal and Polar Urals (see tag.)  I discussed it most recently in connection with the Central Northwest...

Climate Audit - 2016-01-29 - Original post - cached version

One of the longest standing Climate Audit issues with paleoclimate reconstructions is ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of data, of which ex post decisions on inclusion/exclusion of sites/data in “regional [treering] chronologies” is one important family.  This was the issue in the ...

Climate Audit - 2016-01-21 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis


In a recent article I discussed the December 2015 Marvel et al.[1] paper, which contends that estimates of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) derived from recent observations of changes in...

Climate Audit - 2016-01-19 - Original post - cached version

I was very saddened to learn of the sudden death of Bob Carter ( here here).   He was one of the few people in this field that I regarded as a friend.  He was only a few years older than me and we got along well personally.

I will not attempt to comment on his work as that is covered...

Climate Audit - 2016-01-09 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nicholas Lewis

Note: This is a long article: a summary is available here.


In a recent paper[1], NASA scientists led by Kate Marvel and Gavin Schmidt derive the global mean surface temperature (GMST) response of the GISS-E2-R climate model to...

Climate Audit - 2016-01-05 - Original post - cached version

The strong El Nino has obviously caused great excitement in the warmist community.  It should also cause any honest skeptic/lukewarmer to re-examine whether observations remain inconsistent with models. In today’s post, I’ll show two comparisons: 1) CMIP5 models (TAS) vs HadCRUT4; 2) CMIP5...

Climate Audit - 2015-12-23 - Original post - cached version

In the wake of COP21, I thought that it would be interesting to compare the respective pathways of China and the U.S (and others) based on official data. I still plan to post on this topic, but obtaining official data on the pathways proved much more difficult than I anticipated.  Leading into...

Climate Audit - 2015-12-10 - Original post - cached version

There was some publicity this week on a paper by Young et al (Science Advances, 2015), which, according to Gifford Miller , whose work has been frequently discussed at CA (see  tag), had supposedly put the “coup de grace on the Medieval Warm Period”, that had been so long wished for by the Team...

Climate Audit - 2015-12-08 - Original post - cached version

Just before leaving for Paris, the Canadian government, like many others,  stated that “science” was “telling us” that climate change was “one of the greatest threats of our time”.

The scientific evidence is clear: climate change is one of the greatest threats of our time. The...

Climate Audit - 2015-12-02 - Original post - cached version

Like many others, I was interested in the recent controversy arising from findings of Zwally et al 2015 that there had been ice mass gain gain of ~112±61 Gt/year over 1992-2001 and ~82±25 Gt/year over 2003-2008.  Zwally’s findings obviously contradict a widely held contrary belief, expressed,...

Climate Audit - 2015-09-28 - Original post - cached version

Roger Pielke Jr recently made the remarkable discovery that, in addition to his university salary from George Mason University (reported by Pielke as $250,000), Jagadish Shukla, the leader of the #RICO20, together with his wife, had received a further $500,000 more in 2014 alone from federal...

Climate Audit - 2015-09-25 - Original post - cached version

The RICO-20 gang of climate academics commenced its supposed campaign against misinformation with false information about skeptic reactions to the Cuccinelli investigation. Barry Klinger, one of Shukla’s hangers-on at George Mason University,  stated:

However, I don’t...

Climate Audit - 2015-09-19 - Original post - cached version

I’ve had a longstanding interest in high-resolution ocean proxies (with posts as early as 2005 – see Ocean Sediment tag) and had already written detailed reviews of many of the individual high-resolution series used in Ocean2K (e.g. here here here here here here). In these prior discussions, the...

Climate Audit - 2015-09-04 - Original post - cached version

The long-awaited (and long overdue) PAGES2K synthesis of 57 high-resolution ocean sediment series (OCEAN2K) was published a couple of weeks ago (see here here). Co-author Michael Evans’ announcement made the results sound like the latest and perhaps most dramatic Hockey Stick yet:

Climate Audit - 2015-09-01 - Original post - cached version

In Financial Post here. My submitted version was a little harsher. #deflategate For related blog posts, see tag here.

Climate Audit - 2015-08-10 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post,  I’m going to show the Deflategate data from a new perspective.   Rather than arguing about whether the Patriots used the Logo gauge, I’ve assumed, for the sake of argument, the NFL’s conclusion that the Non-Logo gauge was used, but gone further (as they ought to have done). I’...

Climate Audit - 2015-08-08 - Original post - cached version
On June 29, I sent a letter to Ted Wells, notifying him of the erroneous description of key figures in the Exponent report, but did not receive any acknowledgement.  In the presumption that Daniel Marlow of Princeton is more likely to be concerned about the erroneous research record (as well as...
Climate Audit - 2015-08-07 - Original post - cached version

In an earlier article,  I pointed out that essential figures in the Exponent report contained (what appeared to be) an important misrepresentation: that transients purporting to represent Logo gauge initialization had not really been initialized with the Logo gauge.  The same point was later (...

Climate Audit - 2015-08-05 - Original post - cached version

The transcript of the Brady appeal before Goodell has been released and it’s astonishing to see how the sausage was made.  It raises many issues, one of which I’ll discuss in today’s post.

In my previous commentary on the case, I’ve drawn attention to the fact that NFL officials at half-...

Climate Audit - 2015-07-29 - Original post - cached version

Yesterday, Roger Goodell released his decision on the Brady appeal.

Most of the early discussion has been about Brady’s destruction of his cell phone. Brady has contested the NFL’s characterization of this incident here (see cover here), saying that he had replaced a broken phone; that ...

Climate Audit - 2015-07-08 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, I’ll return to more typical Climate Audit programming.  Upside-down Mann’s mentor, Raymond Bradley, has somewhat surprisingly published an article (Balascio et al 2015) that supports a longstanding Climate Audit criticism of varve proxies. Bradley and coauthors did not report...

Climate Audit - 2015-07-03 - Original post - cached version

Further to my series of posts on Deflategate, reader chrimony observed that my statistical analysis had shown that it was possible that there had been no tampering, but had not excluded the possibility of tampering.  This is a sensible observation, but raises the question of whether and how one...

Climate Audit - 2015-06-29 - Original post - cached version

In my first writeup, I observed that Exponent’s Logo transients appeared to be bodged too high, even with their unwarranted and adverse use of 67 deg F initialization (Exponent’s “temperature trick”). In today’s post, I’ve taken a closer look at the seemingly questionable calculation of the...

Climate Audit - 2015-06-28 - Original post - cached version

One of the ironies of the NFL’s conduct in this affair is that it can be established that NFL officials (under the supervision of NFL Executive Vice President Troy Vincent) over-inflated Patriot balls at half-time, the only proven tampering with Patriot balls. Brady and the Patriots were...

Climate Audit - 2015-06-26 - Original post - cached version

By converting football pressures to ball temperatures under the Ideal Gas Law, it is possible to conveniently show Colt and Patriot information – transients, simulations and observations – on a common scale. I’ve done this in the diagram shown below, and, in my opinion, it neatly summarizes the...

Climate Audit - 2015-06-23 - Original post - cached version

Readers in the U.S. are doubtless aware of the “Deflategate scandal”, in which the NFL alleged that Tom Brady, the greatest quarterback of his generation, had conspired with an equipment manager and locker room attendant, to deflate a microscopic amount of pressure from footballs in the AFC...

Climate Audit - 2015-06-02 - Original post - cached version

Last year, a paper of mine (Lewis 2014) showing that the approach used in Frame et al (2005), which argued for using a uniform prior for estimating equilibrium (strictly, effective) climate sensitivity (ECS), in fact led to a unique, objective Bayesian estimate for ECS upon undertaking a simple...

Climate Audit - 2015-04-24 - Original post - cached version

A Scientific American article concerning Bjorn Stevens’ recent paper “Rethinking the lower bound on aerosol radiative forcing” has led to some confusion. The article states, referring to a blog post of mine at Climate Audit, “The misinterpretation of Stevens’ paper began with Nic Lewis, an...

Climate Audit - 2015-04-21 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis

In Part 1 I introduced the talk I gave at Ringberg 2015, explained why it focussed on estimation based on warming over the instrumental period, and covered problems relating to aerosol forcing and bias caused by the influence of the AMO. In Part 2 I dealt...

Climate Audit - 2015-04-14 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis

In Part 1 I introduced the talk I gave at Ringberg 2015, explained why it focussed on estimation based on warming over the instrumental period, and covered problems relating to aerosol forcing and bias caused by the influence of the AMO. I now move on to...

Climate Audit - 2015-04-09 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis

As many readers will be aware, I attended the WCRP Grand Challenge Workshop: Earth’s Climate Sensitivities at Schloss Ringberg in late March. Ringberg 2015 was a very interesting event, attended by many of the best known scientists involved in this field...

Climate Audit - 2015-04-02 - Original post - cached version

Rahmstorf et al 2015 Figure 5 shows a coral d15N series from offshore Nova Scotia (see left panel below). The corresponding plot from the source is shown on the right.  Original captions for both follow.  There’s enough information in the figures and captions to figure out Rahmstorf’s next trick...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-30 - Original post - cached version

The Rahmstorf et al reconstruction commences in AD900 even though the Mann et al 2009 reconstruction goes back to AD500.  Once again, this raises the obvious question: why didn’t Rahmstorf show values before AD900?  Are these results adverse to his claims? Once the question is posed, you can...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-28 - Original post - cached version

In any article by Mann and coauthors, it is always prudent to assume that even seemingly innocent choices use up a researcher degree of freedom – to put it nicely. For example, Rahmstorf et al focus on their “AMOC index” in the period ending 1995 and show their AMOC index up to as shown below....

Climate Audit - 2015-03-27 - Original post - cached version

Jonathan Jones and Ruth Dixon have published (see Ruth’s blog here) a comment  in Psychological Science on conspiracy theorist Stephan Lewandowsky’s Hoax article, much discussed at CA at the time.  Although their statistical points are incontrovertible and clearly expressed, it took considerable...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-25 - Original post - cached version

The new article by Rahmstorf and Mann (see RC here) has been criticized at WUWT (here here) for making claims about Atlantic Ocean currents based on proxies, rather than measurements. (Also at Judy’s here)   But it’s worse, much worse than we thought.

Rahmstorf and Mann’s results are not...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-22 - Original post - cached version

Four of the incidents in J Burke’s background chronology in Weaver v National Post (the January 27, 2005, February 15, 2005, August 2006 and February 27, 2008 incidents) relate, either in whole or in part, to a dispute between Weaver and National Post on whether Weaver had dismissed our research...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-20 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nicholas Lewis

 In a paper published last year (Lewis & Curry 2014), discussed here, Judith Curry and I derived best estimates for equilibrium/effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR). At 1.64°C, our estimate for ECS was below all those...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-18 - Original post - cached version

J Burke’s decision contains a chronology of prior interactions between Weaver and National Post, much of which, when closely examined, is highly misleading. In today’s post, I’m going to discuss one small but interesting issue: Weaver’s claim that he “did not lobby for climate funding”. J Burke...

Climate Audit - 2015-03-18 - Original post - cached version

Kaufman and McKay recently and quietly issued an Arctic2K correction file at NOAA xls here that concedes yet another upside-down series previously pointed out to them at Climate Audit. Once again, they used information from Climate Audit without acknowledgement or credit (see NSF definition of...


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