A new poll from YouGov for HuffPo taken last week showed that most registered voters oppose Trump's fake emergency, 57-39%. Among independents, 30% approve and 55% disapprove. So what's next?The House-- 235 Democrats and 197 Republicans-- will pass a resolution of disapproval-- which can't be blocked by McTurtle. The national emergency law requires the Senate to take up the resolution within 18 days of the House passing it. But would a Republican-majority Senate pass it?We'll get to that in a moment. Are there House Dems who would vote against the resolution? And are there Republicans who would vote for it? Probably and yes. The likeliest Democrats to cross the aisle on a high-profile vote like this are hard-core right-wing Blue Dogs. The two worst in the House are Jeff Van Drew (NJ) and Joe Cunningham (SC). I'm not certain who else would dare but maybe Kendra Horn (OK), Elaine Luria (VA), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Daniel Lipinski (IL) and Stephanie Murphy (FL).On the other side, there are probably more Republicans who want to be seen as not backing Trump on this unconstitutional declaration. Brian Fitzpatrick (PA) would be a sure NO. Justin Amash MI) will make a decision based on constitutionality, which Tom Massie (KY) may do as well. Other Republicans I would watch closely include 5 New Yorkers--John Katko, Elise Stefanik, Peter King, Tom Reed and Lee Zeldin. Then there are some Republicans in very close races coming up in which independents will decide whether or not they will have another term in Congress: Fred Upton (MI), Greg Walden (OR), Chris Smith (NJ), Rodney Davis (IL), Mario Diaz-Balart (FL), Jaime Herrera Beutler (WA), Tom McClintock (CA) and Brian Mast (FL).In the Senate, there are 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats and the resolution can't be filibustered-- so just 4 Republican defections would pass it... or at least a net of 4 Republicans. That caveat is there because it isn't unlikely that two Democrats, Joe Manchin (WV) and Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) will vote against it. If both do, the Dems will need 6 Republicans. 8 Republicans have already said they oppose the declaration:
• Susan Collins (ME)• Lamar Alexander (TN)• Rand Paul (KY)• Lisa Murkowski (AK)• Marco Rubio (FL)• Thom Tillis (NC)• Pat Toomey (PA)• Ben Sasse (NE)
Just because these Republicans say they oppose the declaration doesn't mean they will vote with the Democrats. Look at the record of Sasse, Rubio and Rand Paul, for example, making noise and then folding and sticking with Trump at the first sign of trouble. But... there are several other Republicans who have serious doubts and could vote no. The senators who have already gone on record that they agree with Trump and think he made the right decision: Mike Braun (IN), Shelley Moore Capito (WV), Bill Cassidy (LA), Kevin Cramer (ND), Mike Crapo (ID), Steve Daines (MT), Nan Fischer (NE), Lindsey Graham (SC), Josh Hawley (MO), John Hoeven (ND), James Inhofe (OK), John Kennedy (LA), McTurtle (KY), David Perdue (GA), James Risch (ID), Rick Scott (FL), Tim Scott (SC), Richard Shelby (AL). Everybody else, in theory, is up for grabs. Cory Gardner (CO) is a maybe. So are John Cornyn (TX), Ron Johnson (WI), Mike Lee (UT), Mitt Romney (UT) , Pat Roberts (KS) and Martha McSally (AZ). Hey imagine if McSally votes against the state of emergency and Sinema votes for it!If it passes, Trump will veto it-- at least according to Steven Miller Sunday. Then the Senate would need 67 votes to override. That seems like quite a stretch, especially if Sinema and Manchin stick with Trump.Meanwhile 16 states are suing Trump over his emergency declaration-- California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nevada, New Jersey, New Mexico, New York, Oregon and Virginia.California Attorney General, Xavier Becerra: "Today, on Presidents Day, we take President Trump to court to block his misuse of presidential power... [Trump] is willing to manipulate the Office of the Presidency to engage in unconstitutional theatre performed to convince his audience that he is committed to his 'beautiful' border wall. We’re suing President Trump to stop him from unilaterally robbing taxpayer funds lawfully set aside by Congress for the people of our states... Unlawful southern border entries are at their lowest point in 20 years, immigrants are less likely than native-born citizens to commit crimes, and illegal drugs are more likely to come through official ports of entry."
