A new CNN poll shows that either Bernie or Status Quo Joe would beat Trump by 6 points if the election were held today. How is it possible that a hack politician like Biden, with his long, miserable record could be doing as well as Bernie against Trump?Yesterday, just as the CNN poll was being released, political scientist and Bloomberg columnist Jonathan Bernstein urged his readers to be skeptical of Biden's sudden surge in the polls. He wrote that "A lot of pundits seem to think he has at the very least nailed down a clear lead and ensured himself a finalist slot for the Democratic nomination. I’m not so sure... I’d be wary of paying much attention to that polling surge, at least until it sticks for a few weeks. It’s obviously better to get an announcement bounce than not, but it may not matter much in the long run. Biden’s main asset is that most Democrats like him and probably will continue to like him."
That doesn’t tell us much about how voters will react when they discover that they also like Julian Castro or Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren-- which will probably be the case if and when those candidates become well known.I’m also not overwhelmed by Biden’s endorsements. It’s obviously good that he was able to roll out more than the other contenders. And there’s a decent amount of diversity, indicating a coalition-style candidacy. But his lead over Harris and Cory Booker isn’t very big. This is the former vice president we’re talking about. It’s not as if Democratic politicians need to get to know him. If they want to see him on the campaign trail first, that would indicate a lot less confidence in him than if they wanted the same from, say, Amy Klobuchar or Beto O’Rourke. It would suggest either that they weren’t confident he could match his old form, or that they needed something new from him. It’s not a great sign that he hasn’t added any new endorsements since his announcement last Thursday, despite solid polling numbers. In fact, it suggests that a lot of party actors aren’t eager to jump onto the Biden bandwagon.I’m certainly not saying Biden can’t win. But his roll-out only strengthened my impression that he’s sort of like Walter Mondale in 1984, only somewhat weaker. Some pundits are saying that the basic shape of the nomination contest is coming into view, but I just don’t see it. I still see a wide-open race, with at least a dozen contenders who could win if things break the right way, and with no one having better than a 10 percent chance or so of getting the nomination. Nothing in Biden’s first week has changed that.
Stanford political scientists and Hoover Institution fellows David Brady, Morris Fiorina and Douglas Rivers make a case against the conventional wisdom that encourages candidates to turn out their base and not worry too much about swing voters. "Many Democrats consider Donald Trump such a flawed president," they wrote, "that they believe any Democrat can defeat him. If so, the party has an opportunity to elect a president closer to the views of the base than it would with a more positively regarded Republican incumbent. Some data support this view. One recent poll included trial heats pitting eight potential Democratic candidates against Trump. All eight won. Is it really the case that any Democrat can beat Trump? On closer inspection, that outcome looks less certain... [O]ne recent survey experiment by YouGov indicates that a surprisingly large proportion of the electorate-- about 40 percent-- reports that the choice between President Trump and a Democratic challenger depends on the identity of the Democrat. These voters are 'in play' or 'up for grabs.' There are more of them than there are completely committed Democratic or Trump voters."The YouGov poll of 3,000 voters (Feb. 28- March 3) did head to head match-ups between Trump and Bernie, Elizabeth Warren, Status Quo Joe, Cory Booker, Julian Castro, Kirsten Gillibrand, Kamala Harris, Amy Klobuchar and Beto. (McKinsey Pete hadn't been invented by his p.r. agent yet.) Democrats led in seven of the nine trial heats, but the "always Trump" and "never Trump" blocks were nearly identical in size: 36% of respondents said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in all three matchups and 35% said they would vote for Trump in all three. The good news for Democrats is that there are more Trump supporters who are willing to consider voting for a Democrat than vice versa. The bad news for Democrats is that 40% of the electorate say that their vote in 2020 depends upon the identity of the Democratic nominee. This is the largest segment of the electorate. Among registered voters, the Democratic advantage is larger (38% never Trump, 31% always Trump, and 31% depends), but nearly a third of registered voters are "available" for Trump depending on whom the Democrats nominate.
Who are these potential swing voters? They fit the expected description. Over half (56%) identify themselves as independents; 38% classify themselves as “moderate” or are non-ideological; 40% did not vote in the 2018 midterms; 8% said they voted for Trump in 2016 and a Democratic congressional candidate in 2018. They appear to be in between the parties, neither MAGA true believers nor members of the resistance. They are not part of either party’s base.In liberal states such as California, New York, Illinois, and Massachusetts, to name the more prominent ones, Trump is not competitive. It is almost certain that he will ignore them and aim for an Electoral College majority rather than a popular vote majority. For that reason, we ran additional analyses on: (a) the 17 states where no candidate won by greater than 10% in 2016; (b) the 13 states where a swing of 5 points or less would have changed the outcome; and (c) on six competitive “Midwestern” states (Iowa, Minnesota, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) where Trump will try to eke out an Electoral College victory in 2020... [O]ver the entire national sample Biden and Sanders do best against Trump, each garnering 46 percent. Six of the nine Democrats get a plurality against Trump, although none of them gets a majority. (Trump does not lose to O’Rourke, Harris or Castro, but the undecideds are especially high in their trial heats.)The polls tighten up in the competitive states, with seven of the nine Democrats either tied or trailing Trump-- only Sanders and Gillibrand maintain small leads. In these states the voters are more likely to report they are not sure whom they would vote for in the matchups that involve lesser-known candidates. In the competitive Midwestern states, Sanders turns in his best performance, leading Trump 50%-33%. Biden and, perhaps surprisingly, Booker, have six-point leads in those states. Castro and O’Rourke trail badly.In sum, these findings suggest that at this time the pool of potential swing voters in 2020 is larger than commonly believed. We are a year and a half away from the election, of course, but barring an economic slowdown or serious foreign policy crisis, we can probably expect little change on the Republican side. Donald Trump’s persona is already “baked in” to voter judgments. Whether he is reelected or rejected is largely in the hands of Democratic primary and caucus voters.
In other words... vote for Bernie in the primary? Is that what they're saying? It sounds that way but they never quite say it, even if that data they present does. Anyway, the thermometer on the right will give you an opportunity to contribute to Bernie's presidential campaign if you'd like to. Any amount is fine, although we recommend $20.20.