If nothing else, please watch this 3 minute trailer for Trumping Democracy above-- and then send it to a friend.Now the good news: Voters across the country prefer a Democratic takeover over Congress next year by double digits-- 50-39%. That's huge. Janet Hook: "Voters increasingly want Democrats to control Congress after the 2018 elections, according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that offers several warning signs for the Republican Party."Yesterday, NBC's Mark Murray reported that "Fresh off their victory in Alabama’s special Senate election, Democrats now enjoy their largest advantage in congressional preference in nine years... signaling a dangerous political environment for Republicans entering next year’s midterm elections." The most important numbers in the poll are 43% and 31%. 43% is the percentage of independent voters who prefer Democrats and 31% is the percentage who prefer Republicans. Outside of the deep red seats, primarily in the unreconstructed South, independents will determine who will win congressional elections in 2018. If that margin holds-- or, as is likely continues to grow in a blue direction-- Democrats will be in position to win dozens of seats held by Republicans, including between 7 and 10 in California, nearly as many in Texas and all the swing districts in the Northeast, including Maine, New York, Pennsylvania and New Jersey, while picking up seats in the Midwest (Michigan, Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin and Indiana). And that augers well for the country, especially in terms of putting a check on Trump and his neo-fascist regime. In fact had Schumer not selected 2 especially wretched candidates for the Senate from Arizona (grotesquely corrupt far-right Blue Dog Kyrsten Sinema) and Nevada (utterly worthless and clueless conservative Jacky Rosen) I would be ready to predict a lock on a Democratic Senate takeover to go along with a House takeover. (And you can say goodbye to Paul Ryan and hello to iron worker Randy Bryce in the U.S. House of Representatives.)
The last time Democrats both held a double-digit lead and hit 50 percent on this question in the NBC/WSJ poll was September 2008, right before the party won the White House and picked up a substantial number of House and Senate seats.This past October, Democrats had a 7-point advantage on congressional preference, 48 percent to 41 percent.In this most recent poll, Democrats hold a whopping 48-point lead in congressional preference among voters ages 18-34 (69 percent to 21 percent), a 20-point lead among female voters (54 percent to 34 percent) and a 12-point lead among independent voters (43 percent to 31 percent).By contrast, Republicans have a 2-point edge among white voters (46 percent to 44 percent) and a 12-point advantage with whites without a college degree (50 percent to 38 percent).Notably, Democrats lead among male voters by 2 points, 46 percent to 44 percent, and among seniors by 4 points, 46 percent to 42 percent.The NBC/WSJ poll also shows Democrats with the intensity advantage, with 59 percent of Democratic voters saying they have a high level of interest in next year’s elections (registering either a 9 or 10 on a 10-point scale), versus 49 percent of Republican voters saying the same thing.Additionally, 62 percent of voters who said they voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 have a high level of interest in next year’s midterms, compared with 50 percent of Trump voters."A double-digit margin here is an important indicator of Democratic intensity," said Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, who conducted this survey with Democratic pollsters from Hart Research Associates.
As Trump's disapproval numbers continue to grow, and as the country continues to see him as a liar and source of fake news, his impact on Republicans, largely seen as enablers and rubber stamps, also grows. In fact, in many cases, the disapproval numbers for members of Congress are significantly worse than Trump's disapproval. Let's look at 10 comparisons (from various recent polls) in key battleground districts of Tump's and Ryan's disapproval ratings. The first number represents Trump's disapproval in the district and the second represents Ryan's disapproval rating:
• VA-10 (Barbara Comstock)- 59/71%• CO-06 (Mike Coffman)- 55/64%• PA-06 (Ryan Costello)- 52/70%• ME-02 (Bruce Poliquin)- 49/61%• IA-03 (David Young)- 53/65%• WA-08 (Dave Reichert)- 55/67%• MI-11 (Dave Trott)- 50/65%• MN-02 (Jason Lewis)- 52/62%• PA-15 (Charlie Dent)- 52/61%• IA-01 (Rod Blum)- 52/61%
Each one of these congressmembers is a Paul Ryan rubber stamp and each has built a voting record that can be easily tied to Ryan's hated, toxic agenda. None of these 10 is expected to be returning to Congress in 2019. In fact, 3 have already announced they are retiring, rather than face near-certain defeat. Two-- Bruce Poliquin and David Young-- have extraordinarily qualified progressive opponent, respectively Jared Golden and Austin Frerick. And a third district, the retiring Trott's MI-11, also has an excellent progressive candidate in Haley Stevens. All will be hanging this around their opponent's necks:
