A wave election shouldn't be that hard to understand. This one is easier than most: voters hate Trump and his enablers and want to defeat them. It has nothing much to do with the lesser evil party. Relatively few people are voting for Biden; everyone is voting against Trump-- and his enablers. Biden wasn't the worst Democrat in the primary; Bloomberg was. But Biden was a close second worst. Almost all the Senate candidates that Schumer picked are really bad-- not so-so, the way Sara Gideon (ME) and Steve Bullock (MT) are... really, really bad who will accelerate the degeneration of the Democratic Party into an enemy of the people instead of a vehicle for the legitimate interests of working families. Same in the House... the DCCC recruits are all terrible. Almost all-- and their are just a tiny few-- of the good candidates the DCCC is backing are the few in legitimate pick-up seats who beat DCCC-preferred primary opponents. And in a wave election, all ships rise as the wave comes in. In the Senate races, crap Democrats like Frackenlooper (CO), Greenfield (IA), Kelly (AZ), and Cunningham (NC) win. And if the wave is big enough, so do Jaime Harrison (SC), Jon Ossoff (GA), Barbara Bollier (KS)... If things going really badly for Republicans between now and November 3, even Cornyn (TX), McConnell (KY) and Capito (WV) could be unseated. It isn't any different in the House. There's a worthless right-wing coke freak running as a Democrat in Texas; he can win. The DCCC set up dozens of putrid Blue Dogs and New Dems and many will be swept into office by a wave that has nothing to do with Democrats; it's an anti-Trump/anti-red wave. That wave will also protect worthless Democratic incumbents who deserve to lose. Yesterday, Politico ran a piece by Ally Mutnick, The outlook for House Republicans keeps getting worse which focused on 7 of the worst Democrats in Congress, Blue Dogs Kendra Horn (OK), Joe Cunningham (SC), Max Rose (NY), Xochitl Torres Small (NM), Anthony Brindisi (NY), Ben McAdams (UT) and Abigail Spanberger (UT). Each has an "F" rank from ProgressivePunch. These are their lifetime crucial vote scores-- from bad to worst:
• Max Rose- 55.56%• Xochitl Torres Small- 43.21%• Abigail Spanberger- 28.40%• Kendra Horn- 28.40%• Ben McAdams- 27.16• Anthony Brindisi- 24.69%• Joe Cunningham- 23.46%
Without any of that context, Mutnick wrote about these 7 from the perspective of how the GOP isn't able to beat them. I agree; they'll all win-- and then all lose in 2022. "Here’s how grim things look for House Republicans," she wrote, "three weeks out from the election: They’re struggling to win back seats even in conservative bastions like Oklahoma and South Carolina, where Democrats staged shocking upsets in 2018." Yes, that's because it isn't about the 7 horrible excuses for Democrats. It's about Donald. But that's too simple. It must be more complicated than that, right?
Their success stems from Democrats’ massive fundraising advantage as well as some Republican recruitment struggles. And in a few places, Trump has become so toxic that he’s dragging down GOP candidates where he was once overwhelmingly popular. “They continue to run rubber stamps for the president,” Cunningham said in a recent interview outside the Capitol. “Even though the district is more conservative, it doesn’t want a rubber stamp for the president.” Privately, Republicans concede their chances of reclaiming Cunningham's coastal South Carolina district are dimming. He's leading Republican Nancy Mace by a staggering 13 points, 55 percent to 42 percent, according to an early October poll conducted by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research for the independent-expenditure arm of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and shared with Politico. And he has even managed to outflank Mace on the right, warning she will raise taxes 23 percent on prescription drugs and groceries. Trump won the seat by 13 points in 2016. But he is polling significantly lower now. "It’s definitely not the margin that he had last time against Hillary," Cunningham said. Not only are Republicans struggling to pick off Cunningham-- a sign they have little chance of reclaiming the majority-- but a few Democrats even believe there’s a slim possibility they don’t lose any incumbents next month. House GOP super PACs have reserved and spent millions into these seats, trying to keep pace with well-funded Democratic incumbents-- in some cases, without much movement in the polls. Republicans' 2020 argument was that President Donald Trump would be a boon to their prospects in flipping the 30 Democratic-held districts he carried in 2016. In reality, they are seriously contesting perhaps a dozen of them, and Democrats could even expand their majority.
Could??? Planet earth to whoever wrote that. I would like to bet that person any amount of money that the Democrats will significantly expand their majority-- courtesy of The Donald-- in 3 weeks. As for not losing a single seat. That, alas, is probably true. Even a stinking sack of garbage like Anthony Brindisi will probably win again and immediately get busy in Congress trying to make sure nothing remotely progressive comes forward from the House Dems-- guaranteeing a massive loss of seats in 2022, including, thankfully, his own. "Some Republican strategists," wrote Mutnick, "believe their best chance to oust a freshman is in upstate New York, where Brindisi faces a rematch with former GOP Rep. Claudia Tenney. In a district that Trump carried by 16 points, Brindisi has tried to focus on local issues, including his work to secure contracts for a manufacturing company in the district and to crack down on Spectrum, the much-hated cable company in the region." The NRCC and McCarthy's SuperPAC have spent $8.4 million on Tenney's behalf. I don't have the up-to-date DCCC numbers, but as of last month they had spent about $3 million bolstering Brindisi-- what a horrifying waste of money!
As of mid-October, national Republicans are playing more defense than offense, airing TV ads in 28 GOP-held districts compared to 25 Democratic-held ones, according to a Politico analysis of data from Advertising Analytics, a TV tracking firm. “We’re able to flip the tables and focus on expanding the map. And I do think that that’s a shift,” said Abby Curran Horrell, the executive director of House Majority PAC, Democrats' main House super PAC. "They are tied down in districts that I think they expected that they would be able to win easily. But it is not that type of year." ...One bright spot for the GOP lies in Western Minnesota, where longtime Democratic Rep. Collin Peterson, facing massive headwinds, has slipped in some private polling. The GOP recruit, former Lt. Gov. Michelle Fischbach, is well-funded and plans to ride Trump's coattails in a seat he won by 31 points. Ironically, Democrats are growing increasingly nervous about two members in seats that Clinton won by double digits in 2016: Rep. TJ Cox in California's Central Valley and Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in South Florida. In the closing weeks, national Republicans have begun to hone in on crime, warning in countless ads that Democrats plan to "defund the police." And they are most optimistic about this line of attack in the Staten Island-based district with a heavy law-enforcement presence, where Rose is locked in a tight race with state Assemblymember Nicole Malliotakis. In most well-educated suburban districts, Trump is proving just as burdensome as he was in the 2018 midterms. In Oklahoma's 5th District, Horn shocked the political world by upsetting an unprepared incumbent. Trump won the seat by 13 points, but some private polling now indicates a tight presidential contest there. It's still a top pickup opportunity for Republicans. But they don't have a clear lead yet, despite millions in outside spending and a more compelling and well-funded nominee in state Sen. Stephanie Bice. "If we don’t win Congressional District 5, there’s probably a lot of other places we don’t win," said Chad Alexander, a former Oklahoma state GOP chair. "So that would be a very bad night for Republicans."
