We've been following state legislative races because we're interested in the clear pattern that shows a stunning swing towards Democratic candidates-- often a result a Democratic enthusiasm and the lack of enthusiasm among Republicans. And, more often than not, the enthusiasm levels are about Trump and the Republican Congress. Next up is in a pretty red district based in Sarasota, Florida, House District 72, which goes from the I-75 to the beach below Tampa.In 2016, Republican Alexandra Miller beat Democrat Edward James 50,468 (58.06%) to 36,449 (41.94%). Miller, a freshman, resigned in August, less than a year after winning the seat. The favorite to win next month is James Buchanan, son of U.S. Rep. Vern Buchanan, the district's congressman. His Democratic opponent is Margaret Good, a moderate Democrat, who supports Choice, LGBT equality, and says she will fight to expand Medicare and to protect the fragile Florida environment.The House district is entirely within Sarasota County and entirely within Buchana's congressional district (FL-16). HD 72 is about 83% white, 11.3% Hispanic and 2.6% Black. The median household income is just over $49,000, slightly higher than the state ($47,866) and the rest of the congressional district ($48,202). The district went for Trump by a little over 4 points. If the swing in a blue direction is around the average of what it has been nationally in state legislative races (around 20 points), Buchanan will be swamped.The Herald-Tribune reported a couple weeks ago that Good has started outraising Buchanan (by double) and that, in desperation, he's turned to hardball tactics and has started attacking her. Buchanan-affiliated SuperPACs are attacking her for her support for Medicare and the Affordable Care Act, something likely to backfire on Buchanan. Buchanan, a real estate agent, has been afraid to debate Good, an attorney, and would rather just rely on the smear tactic attack ad. We'll soon see if those tactics work in a wave cycle.If Good beats Congressman Buchanan's son in his own congressional district expect major-- really major-- panic to set in among the Florida Republicans , the Florida Republicans who aren't already panicking. The election is in about 2 weeks-- February 13.
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