Uncertainty

National Climate Assessment: A crisis of epistemic overconfidence

by Judith Curry
“You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine Hayhoe, co-author of the 4th National Climate Assessment Report.

So, should we have the same confidence in the findings of the recently published 4th (U.S.) National Climate Assessment (NCA4) as we do in gravity?  How convincing is the NCA4?
The 4th National Climate Assessment (NCA4) is published in two volumes: