MI-06

 Keith Mannes, giving his final sermon in East Saugatuck one week ago On Saturday evening, the Washington Post's Hannah Knowles did some Trump reporting from the front lines of one of his super-spreader events, this one in Muskegon, Michigan.

COVID-KempThanks to an incompetent ideologically-insane Trumpist governor, Georgia is one of the worst hit states by the pandemic. Georgia is the 8th most populous state but has the 5th most COVID cases of any state-- and the third most active cases, behind just Florida and California.

Totally In Control by Nancy OhanianThursday, a new Gallup poll showed Trump's pandemic job approval collapsing-- down 6 points in a month.

Remember when I told you that Change Research is this cycle's polling outfit to pay attention to? I was in heaven seeing their latest-- surveys in 3 battleground congressional districts, Michigan's 6th (Fred Upton), New York's 24th (John Katko) and Illinois' 13th (Rodney Davis). All the incumbents are Republicans and all the districts are swingy and flippable.

MI-06, the southwest corner of the state, flush up against Lake Michigan in the west and Indiana in the south, has been an elusive target for Democrats. Obama beat McCain by 8 points; Romney edged Obama by a little over a point; and then along came Hillary... and Trump won 51.3% to 42.9%. She was the wrong candidate for the district, even with Trump as the opponent.

Michigan's 60th HD is entirely within the boundaries of the 6th congressional district, and the state Rep. from the 60th, Jon Hoadley, announced yesterday he will be running for the congressional seat against very vulnerable Republican Fred Upton. The 60th includes Kalamazoo and a small part of Portage.

Joe Biden by Nancy OhanianMatt Longjohn was a good solid progressive candidate last year in MI-06, the southwest Michigan district that is centered on Kalamazoo and includes all or part of 6 counties: Kalamazoo (the biggest and overwhelmingly blue), Berrien, Allegan, Van Buren, St. Joseph and Cass.

The outgoing Michigan congressional delegation has 9 Republicans and 5 Democrats. Starting in January it will be 7 Democrats and 7 Republicans-- and that despite gerrymandering.

There was no primary or special election in North Carolina yesterday and the Democratic candidate, Dan McCready, is a Blue Dog who will be voting frequently with the GOP when he gets into Congress-- Blue Dogs always do. But with the existential danger of Trump hanging over us, with have to hold our noses and hope congressional candidates like McCready win. And in this case, we probably don't have to hope too hard, because he's very likely to win.

Michigan's 6th district is a swing district that Obama won against McCain (53-45%) and that Trump won against Hillary (51-43%). The PVI is R+4. And the incumbent is Republican hereditary multimillionaire and Trump stooge Fred Upton. In the 2016 primary Bernie beat Hillary in the district (and got more votes in the primary than Trump did).