After gathering a number of diverse news items, we're going long.
1st- Yesterday the SDF/YPG/PKK claimed they'd made a deal with Damascus-
The silence from both Damascus and Russia regarding the deal is deafening! I've been checking and rechecking SANA for news regarding this matter and there is NOTHING. As mentioned in yesterday's post : Damascus & SDF Have a Deal? Doubtful. However, Negotiations Continue with Kurds That Renounce Terrorism.
My inclination leans towards the idea that if there was a REAL deal between Damascus and some group of Kurds. The deal would be announced by Russia, Damascus and the allied Kurds, all together. No new information has come to light that changes my mind
2- Trump's got "Big Sanctions" for Turkey
Why would the US sanction Turkey if they support the Turkish move? Certainly disinformers would have us believe the US "green lighted" or rubber stamped Operation Peace Spring. "Big Sanctions" make a lie of those claims.
....Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved. Easily recaptured by Turkey or European Nations from where many came, but they should move quickly. Big sanctions on Turkey coming! Do people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey? Never ending wars will end!— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) October 14, 2019
"President Trump in a tweet early Monday vowed that "big sanctions" on Turkey are coming after its military launched an offensive in Northern Syria. He also suggested that the Syrian Kurds targeted by Ankara may be releasing some ISIS prisoners to get the U.S. involved in the conflict. "Big sanctions on Turkey coming! Do people really think we should go to war with NATO Member Turkey? Never ending wars will end!" he tweeted. Trump, the idiot President... Sanctions are a form of warfare and the US has been at war with Turkey for a long, long time now. In fact they’ve completely betrayed their NATO ally."We are not going into another war between people who have been fighting with each other for 200 years. Europe had a chance to get their ISIS prisoners, but didn’t want the cost. 'Let the USA pay,' they said," he added. "Kurds may be releasing some to get us involved. Easily recaptured by Turkey or European Nations from where many came, but they should move quickly. "
Undoubtedly the Kurds are partnering up with ISIS as I gather this material into a report. In fact Turkey has the documentation of that collusion and they've shared it with their partners!
3- BNNBloomberg: Turkey Blames Syrian Kurds for Mass Jailbreak by Islamic State
Akar’s comments show Turkey considered only one Islamic State prison to be inside its area of responsibility.After saying that the YPG has abandoned the prison so that jihadists could flee, Akar said: “We have detected this with visual evidence such as photos and videos. We have discussed these with our counterparts.”
In straight up talk- The Turks gathered evidence of YPG emptying the prisons and have shown it to Russia and Iran-
4-Moving Towards Manbij- Long a bone of contention
“Our agreement with the United States was for the terrorist organisations to clear Manbij in 90 days,” he said, referring to the YPG. “However, a year has passed and Manbij has not been cleared,” Erdogan told reporters at the airport in Istanbul.
“We, as Turkey, will not go into Manbij when it’s emptied. The real owners of that area, the Arabs, and the tribes who are the true owners of that will go there. Our approach on this is for them to be settled there and to provide their security,” he added.
Asked about the deal struck between the Kurdish forces and Damascus, Erdogan said that he did not expect any problems to emerge in the town of Kobani and added that Russian President Vladimir Putin had a “positive approach.”
“There are many rumours at the moment. However, especially through the embassy and with the positive approach of Russia in Kobani, it appears there won’t be any issues,” he said, without elaborating.
Manbij has been a bone of contention for years now. I suspect Erdogan's reference is to some recent dealings with the Trump administration. However the Manbij issue has been around since Obama's reign of terror. And has been covered here dozens of times. Let's go back to 2016. Yes, August 2016. More then three years ago Turkey: US to Keep Manbij Promise? 3 Step Road Map: Assad Stays. Cooperating with Iran & MoreHow about June 2018 & June 2018 again. Or how about February 2018 when SAA was already alleged to have been in charge of Manbij, thanks to a hand off that was claimed to have occurred at that time. Of course, it didn't. Which is why I question this most recent deal claim. I've read it all before and it wasn't true then! April 2018 .Manbij and it's status have come up time and time again! Oddly enough at that time we had news of a deal between SDF and Damascus that was also as phony as a three dollar bill.
"Rumours, fueled by speculation, spread like wildfire, across social media. I've searched for days now to see if there is anything to this speculative firestorm"
Is it any wonder I've such disgust and distrust for gossip mongers and disinformation?
(Canthama at Syper is one of the worst disinfo spreaders on line- BEWARE. As are so many others. 21st Century Wire is spinning this deal- notice I do not link to them? There is a reason for that. Ditto for MoA. SOTT. And many others )
5- Deal or No Deal with SDF?- According to the SDF the deal only covers "military affairs"
"Aldar Khalil, Syrian Kurdish Politician, Executive Committee member of the Democratic Society Movement (TEV-DEM) made it clear that the deal with Damascus was only for military affairs to ward off the Turkish offensive, and that it does not include the administration of these border areas"
(a) Should we believe that at a time when Damascus is holding all the cards they make a deal that doesn't require the administrative return of these areas to the central Syrian government? Does that make sense to you?
(b) Keeping in mind that on September 16/19 Damascus labelled the SDF a terrorist organization in a letter sent by them to the UN.
"Syria’s foreign ministry labeled the Syrian Democratic Forces as “separatist terrorist militias” in a letter to United Nations Secretary-General.The letter accuses the SDF of operating in line with “schemes” by the United States and Israel and says the Syrian government will “liberate” territories captured by the militias, state news agency SANA reported on Sunday, September 15, ahead of a Monday meeting of the presidents of Russia, Iran and Turkey to discuss Syria"
(c) By the way, that type of deal would be in direct contradiction & conflict with the existing Adana Agreement Syria has with Turkey and Iran. The same Adana that the Astana Trio has been discussing, repeatedly.
Still doubting the deal spin.
Continuing on
6 Russia and Turkey in regular contact
Asked if Erdogan was coordinating the Turkish offensive with Putin, Peskov said:“Contacts between the Russian and Turkish authorities are happening. In particular, there was a phone call (between the presidents), and phone conversations between the foreign ministers. There are also communication channels between the (two) militaries.”
Communication on all levels between Russia and Turkey regarding Operation Peace Spring. And if Russia knows, Damascus knows. That should be obvious and not need stating.
7- Ras al Ayn and Tel Abyad are Under Turkish Military Control
Ras al-Ayn and Tal Abyad town are "under control", Turkey's defense minister said on Monday."Tal Abyad and Ras al-Ayn are under control, our efforts regarding the safety in the region continue," Hulusi Akar told reporters in Turkish capital Ankara.Akar also said Turkey not only fights against YPG, but also all terrorist organizations especially Daesh.Akar "Our fight [on Operation Peace Spring] is not only against YPG, but against all terrorist organizations especially Daesh. Terrorists are our only target."On Oct. 9, Turkey launched Operation Peace Spring to eliminate terrorists from northern Syria in order to secure Turkey’s borders, aid in the safe return of Syrian refugees, and ensure Syria’s territorial integrity.
8- Turkey And Allies Control First City East Of The Euphrates
The Turkish Ministry of National Defense announced that they gained control over the city of Ras al-Ayn/Sari Kani in the northwestern part of the Hasaka province.In a statement on its official Twitter account, the ministry said today, 12 October, that “as part of the successful operations being conducted in the framework of Operation Peace Spring, the town of Rasulayn, located east of the Euphrates, has been brought under control.”
According to the latest maps, the ground advance of the Turkish Army and the factions of the NA is concentrated on two axes: the first in the vicinity of Tel Abyad and the second, further to the east, in the surrounding of the city of Ras al-Ayn
9 NYT's : SAA entered Tel Tamer
"The Syrian Army entered the town of Tel Tamer in northeastern Syria, the state news media reported on Monday" More probably coordinating between Turkey, Russia and Syria then any so called deal with SDF. I'm still awaiting verification of a deal, any deal, from Damascus and Russia. And am hopeful the deal will be with Kurds who disavow violence and terrorism as was stated by Lavrov and quoted in an earlier post.
"We will be pressing for the beginning of a dialogue between Turkey and Syria. There are reasons to believe that this will meet the interests of both countries. Also, we will be promoting contacts between Damascus and Kurdish organizations that renounce extremism and terrorist methods of activity," Lavrov said.
10- Tel Tamer- Ras al- Ayn and Tal Abyad
Along or near the M-4 Highway. It appears that Damascus may have, in coordination with Turkey, be working to make clear passage along the highway. Which would assist in setting up a zone for returning Syrians and would help to create security in that area. While excluding Usrael's Kurds. Speculative, but, realistic. Because let's face it... If Turkey and Russia are coordinating, and it appears they are, there is zero reason to believe Damascus is not involved in that coordination.
Finally the last news report for this post
11- Lebanon's FM Says He'll go to Syria and Talk Refugee Return
"The two blocs now exist largely in name only with political alliances having shifted in recent years.“I want to go to Syria, so that the Syrian people can return to Syria,” said Mr Bassil in reference to the over 1 million Syrian refugees in Lebanon. The state-run National News Agency quoted him as telling a crowd of supporters of his Free Patriotic Movement political party that, “I want to go to Syria because I want Lebanon’s sovereignty and economy to breathe.”Mr Hariri reacted to Mr Bassil’s speech on Monday morning, beginning with a reference to his assassinated father, former prime minister of Lebanon Rafic Hariri whose killing — blamed on Hezbollah on the orders of Syria — led a month later to Syria's withdrawal.Prime Minister Saad Hariri (R) along with Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil "This is just a reminder, Rafic Hariri’s blood sent the Syrian troops back to Syria. If the head of the Free Patriotic Movement wants to visit Syria to discuss the return of displaced Syrians, this is his business but the result is what is important. The Syrian regime should not make the visit a reason for his return to Lebanon because we don’t trust the regime has intentions to return the migrants … and if the return takes place, then we will be the first ones to welcome it [to praise the return],” he said. "The country is in no need of new conflicts and my main worry today is how we will stop the economic crisis."
I've spent nearly 3 hours gathering information/writing for this latest post. Take the time to read all linked information then comment. I'm thankful there are very good commenters here at the blog. That message is not for them. Empty platitudes and spinners belong elsewhere.Related: