by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Validation of atmospheric reanalysis data sets in the Arctic. [link]
ENSO Normals: A New U.S. Climate Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends https://buff.ly/2DUsENO
Contributions of advection and melting processes to the decline in sea ice in the Pacific sector of the Arctic Ocean (open access) https://buff.ly/2HcmdGE
U.K. temperature records affected by urban heat islands. https://rmets.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1002/asl.896 …
A 3-year ocean expedition found more than 180,000 new populations of marine viruses and pinpointed hotspots of marine biodiversity. [link]
Global warming hits marine life hardest [link]
The mechanisms that determine the response of the Northern Hemisphere’s stationary waves to North American Ice Sheets https://buff.ly/2VG0Map
How strong is influence of the tropics and midlatitudes on the Arctic atmospheric circulation and climate change? https://buff.ly/2GxvmJu
Decadal-scale progression of the onset of Dansgaard–Oeschger warming events (open access) https://buff.ly/2V1c4Xk
Looking into Earth’s past glaciation cycles can give clues to how planet’s climate fared when the it was warmer than today. https://eos.org/research-spotlights/southern-hemisphere-sediments-show-surprising-pliocene-cyclicity …
Low terrestrial carbon storage at the Last Glacial Maximum: constraints from multi-proxy data (open access) https://buff.ly/2vAvwLn
Anthropogenic aerosols, greenhouse gases and the uptake, transport and storage of excess heat in the climate system https://buff.ly/2XMmlDu
Understanding Negative Subtropical Shallow Cumulus Cloud Feedbacks in a Near‐Global Aquaplanet Model Using Limited‐Area Cloud‐Resolving https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1029/2018MS001572 …
US Temperatures: Time Trends and Persistence https://buff.ly/2VCRaNJ
UN Report on the ‘biodiversity crisis’ [link]
The West Antarctic Ice Sheet shrank bet/10,000 & 12,000 years ago at a time when the world was cooler than it is today. It left the ice sheet 135,000 square miles smaller than it is today. [link]
Variable external forcing obscures the weak relationship between the NAO and North Atlantic multi-decadal SST variability https://buff.ly/2KSwBZa
“100 Years of Earth System Model Development” https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0018.1 …
The impact of regime shifts on long‐range persistence and the scaling of sea surface temperature off the coast of California https://buff.ly/2GHWIgb
Contributing Factors to Spatio-Temporal Variations of Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) in the Tropics https://buff.ly/2DI0B41
Climate scientists’ wide prediction intervals may be more likely but are perceived to be less certain https://buff.ly/2DUbkZx
Ed Hawkins Kavli lecture: Our changing climate learning from the past to inform future choices [link]
Long‐Term Measurements Show Little Evidence for Large Increases in Total U.S. Methane Emissions over the Past Decade https://buff.ly/2WbFqP1
Pacific anthropogenic carbon between 1991 and 2017 https://buff.ly/2Leao89
Roy Spencer: UAH, RSS, NOAA, UW: Which Satellite Dataset Should We Believe? http://www.drroyspencer.com/2019/04/uah-rss-noaa-uw-which-satellite-dataset-should-we-believe/ …
How the oceans and atmospheric CO2 made ice ages stronger+longer 1 million yrs ago Part 1: http://jfarmersalmanac.com/climate-change/a-million-year-old-climate-mystery-part-1/ … Part 2: http://jfarmersalmanac.com/climate-change/a-million-year-old-climate-mystery-part-2/ …
100 Years Of Progress In Hydrology https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/abs/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-18-0019.1 … …
Ross Ice Shelf melts from beneath as a result of warm water inflow from the Ross Sea Polynya https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0356-0 …
Social Science, technology & policy
When making things better only makes them worse. Our very attempts to stave off disaster make unpredictable outcomes more likely [link]
Micro-solutions to global problems: understanding social processes to eradicate energy poverty and build climate-resilient livelihoods [link]
Indonesia announced today that it’s moving its capital because Jakarta is sinking into the sea. [link]
California’s latest weapon against climate change is growing cover crops [link]
Climate change being fueled by soil damage [link]
The hidden subsidy of fossil fuels [link]
Daily stories of climate death build a Green New Deal [link]
Want an energy revolution? It won’t come from renewables [link]
Property rights and environmental outcomes. https://legal-planet.org/2019/05/02/is-socialism-good-for-the-environment/ …
Bad, confusing #Flood maps leave homeowners blindsided when water rises: [link]
Anxiety about global warming has become such a concern that the American Psychological Association created a 69-page climate-change guide to help mental health care providers. [link]
On the Energy Innumeracy of the supporters of Canada’s Green New Deal https://achemistinlangley.net/2019/05/07/on-the-energy-innumeracy-of-the-supporters-of-canadas-green-new-deal/ …
Third party sustainability science firm validates Southwest Georgia farm is storing more carbon in its soil than pasture-raised cows emit during their lifetimes. [link]
More haste, less speed: why extinction rebellion needs to slow down [link]
About science & scientists
Kirkegaard on the power of the minority [link]
When science becomes too easy: science popularization inclines laypeople to underrate their dependence on experts [link]
Don’t let students run the university [link]
Models which can be “tuned” in many different ways give researchers scope to perceive a pattern where none exists. According to some estimates, 75% of published scientific papers in the field of machine learning are bunk because of this “overfitting” https://www.economist.com/briefing/2013/10/18/trouble-at-the-lab …
Reflecting on Alfred Wegener’s contributions to tornado research [link]
Cambridge capitulates to the mob and ires a young scholar [link]
The reality of the rise of an intolerant and radical left on campus [link]
Fact-checking can’t do much when people’s ‘dueling facts’ are driven by values instead of knowledge [link]
Faculty at prestigious institutions are more productive and prominent than their peers. New research suggests that their work environment, not their training, explains their success. http://ow.ly/GfY450tWGum
The great English mathematician and philosopher William Kingdon Clifford on the discipline of doubt and how we can trust a truth: https://www.brainpickings.org/2017/04/14/the-ethics-of-belief-william-kingdon-clifford/ …
Joel Kotkin: our suicidal elites [link]
“The challenges related to demographic diversity and ideological diversity are intimately interrelated — and they are best addressed in tandem.” https://heterodoxacademy.org/viewpoint-diversity-transcends-politics/ …
Expertise, agreement and the nature of social scientific facts: Against Epistocracy. “I reject any attempt, on the part of scientists themselves or of philosophers or any other students of science, to strengthen the role of experts in society. Experts need to be kept in check, not given more power.” [link]
Why falsificationism is false [link]
Against scientism [link]
To stay sane in an age of broken politics, admit what you don’t know [link]
Reading list on the philosophy of science [link]
The decline of historical thinking [link]