Montana has been a pretty red state. In 2016, Trump clobbered Hillary there 56.5% to 35.9%. Hillary won only 6 of the state’s 56 counties. Democrats had plenty to worry about for their senator, Jon Tester. When he was first elected in 2006, he barely beat Republican incumbent, Conrad Burns— 199,845 (49.2%) to 196,283 (48.3%). With less than 50% of the vote, senators know they’re going to have a tough reelection fight. And sure enough in 2012, Tester was forced into a battle with Denny Rehberg, a sitting congressman. The result was another squeaker— 236,123 (48.6%) to 218,051 (44.9%). This cycle he knew another tough race was coming, as he faced off against State Auditor Matt Rosendale. Billionaire-funded Republican SuperPACs poured $16,993,026 into a non-stop smear campaign against Tester that blanketed the airwaves from Carter county in the southwest to Lincoln County in the northwest, but especially in the population centers of Cascade County, Flathead County, Gallatin County, Lewis and Clark County, Missoula County, Ravalli County and Yellowstone County.And yet… Tester celebrated his first win over 50%! With immense turnout on both sides, he beat Rosendale 246,291 (50.1%) to 230,974 (47%). And he won Cascade, Gallatin, Lewis and Clark and Missoula counties as well as some of the rural parts of the state where Trump had trounced Hillary.As Aaron Zitner and Dante Chinni reported for the Wall Street Journal last week, that Trump had “focused heavily on Montana this year, holding four rallies there since the summer. His visits, and the publicity they generated, likely are a central reason for high turnout. Vote tallies exceeded 2016 presidential levels in 15 of the state’s 56 counties.” The problem was that the controversial Trump circus inspired voters on both sides of the aisle. “Trump,” they wrote, “appeared to have an effect on both parties. In 10 of the counties where vote tallies topped 2016 totals, Democratic Sen. Jon Tester received a similar or greater share of the vote than he did in his last election, and he won more than 50% of the vote statewide.”Trump’s first hate rally for Rosendale, from Great Falls on July 5, was broadcast nationally. Pence campaigned for him 19 days later. On September 6 Trump was back, this time in Billings. Three weeks later, Trumpanzee, Jr. held an in-state fundraiser for GOP fat cats. On October 2, Pence campaigned with Rosendale in Bozeman. A week later the candidates had their first debate and Tester wiped the floor with Rosendale, prompting Trump to rush out to Missoula a few days later to try to salvage the wreckage. Tester surged in the polling and Trump tried one more timep— November 3 in Bozeman. It wasn’t enough.This ad, from McConnell’s smear machine linked Tester with Bernie and Medicare-for-All, shooting himself in the foot and driving up Tester’s polling numbers. Remember, McConnell is the most hated politician in America. Bernie is the most popular. In fact, in the 2016 primaries Bernie beat Hillary by 7 points, won most of the counties and beat Trump in some of them. These were the results in rural Glacier County:
• Bernie- 1,074• Hillary- 928• Trumpanzee- 357• Cruz- 38
And these were the results in more urban and suburban Missoula county:
• Bernie- 13,271• Hillary- 8,115• Trumpanzee- 7,23• Cruz- 1,026
Linking Tester to Bernie might have been smart for a closed GOP primary, where only Fox brainwashed zombies are allowed to vote, but in a general election just a couple of weeks away: really dumb.