by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
The real culprit behind snowmelt floods isn’t temperature – its dirt [link]
Pacific Islands Getting Bigger, Despite Rising Seas [link]
New paper by Dan Lubin at Scripps: Cooling Sun May Partially Offset Climate Change by Humans [link]
Chris Landsea’s essay on “Hurricane #Harvey ‘s Rainfall and Global Warming” [link] …
Important new work on the Medieval Climate Anomaly (once called the Medieval Warm Period) in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula [link]
New paper reviews overlapping mechanisms of adaptability for #corals in response to heat stress & variability [link] …
The Ozone Layer Isn’t Healing Like Expected [link] [link]
The Arctic sea ice cover of 2016: a year of record-low highs and higher-than-expected lows [link]
Asymmetric variations in Hadley Circulations and the Associated Mechanisms [link] …
Using @ECMWF forecasts to calibrate seasonal forecast [link]
Pielke Jr: Weather-related natural disasters 2017: was this a reversion to the mean? [link]
Another entry into the climate-tradeoffs-are-hard category: air pollution kills 3-6 million(!) a year. So let’s cut it out, right? Well, yes, except it’ll increase global temps by 0.5–1.1°C, increase precipitation & extreme weather. [link] …
Southern Hemisphere climate variability forced by Northern Hemisphere ice-sheet topography [link] …
Models are coming into sync on how Arctic sea ice loss can lead to far-flung atmospheric impacts. [link]
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The collapse of ice cliffs is one of several mechanisms with the potential to rapidly increase ice sheet discharge, and affect sea level rise, under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios. [link]
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World Climate Research Programme: Advancing climate forecasts [link]
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When will we detect changes in short-duration precipitation extremes? [link]
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Little Ice Age ended Viking settlements in Greenland. Increased storminess disrupted trade & walrus ivory trade collapsed due to Russian competition. Despite key adaptations finally Vikings returned home. [link] …
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Assessing the Impact of a Future Volcanic Eruption on Decadal Predictions [link] …
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Continental shelves as increasing global #carbon sink: [link]
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Consistent biases in Antarctic sea ice concentration simulated by climate models [link]
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Perspective: Challenges and opportunities for improved understanding of regional climate dynamics [link]
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The North Atlantic Ocean is in a state of reduced overturning [link]
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Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American Summer Climate and Heat Waves [link]
Global models underestimate large decadal declining and rising water storage trends relative to GRACE satellite data [link]
“grand minimum” could overtake the sun perhaps as soon as 2020 & lasting thru 2070, resulting in diminished magnetism, infrequent sunspot production… — all bringing a cooler period to the planet that may span 50 years [link]
Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework [link]
Maunder Minimum & The CET [link]
Social science and policy
Roger Pielke Jr: Misusing the Future [link]
Not long ago, the idea of New England relying on Russian heating fuel shipped halfway around the world would have been laughed right off Boylston Street. But the fuel situation in New England is ominous. [link]
Interesting article on Patrick Allitt’s new book A Climate of Crisis: America in the Age of Environmentalism [link]
Poland to put ‘common sense’ over climate ambition as host of critical UN talks [link]
Governance matters: climate change, corruption, and livelihoods in Bangladesh [link]
Recent weather disasters (Texas, Florida, Puerto Rico) have emphasized the importance of rethinking #infrastructure & #resilience. a more integrated & systematic approach: [link]
Oil Kept the Power Grid Running in Recent Cold Snap [link] …
Current estimates indicate the initial impacts of climate change may be positive (~1°C), but in the long run the negative impacts dominate. Negative impacts substantially greater in poorer, hotter, & lower-lying countries. @RichardTol [link]…
Engineering put New Orleans below sea level. Now the city’s future is at risk, [link]
We worry if a 2°C pathway is feasible, but we need to apply the same thinking & logic to baseline scenarios”. Large spread in baseline scenarios, & many good arguments that high-end scenarios are infeasible. [link] …
About science and scientists
Andrew Sullivan: problems with the university identity-based social justice movement [link]
Deb Mashek: Why I’m Leaving the Academy to Help Save it – Heterodox Academy [link]
Intellectual humility and openness to the opposing view. [link] …
Fixing statistics is more than a technical issue [link] …
Great piece by Australian scientist Peter Ridd detailing a serious problem: Science or silence? My battle to question doomsayers about the Great Barrier Reef [link]
Review of Nassim Taleb’s “Incerto” [link] …