by Judith Curry
A few things that caught my eye this past week.
Concepts for dealing with complexity of weather and climate. [link]
Nature: Halfway to doubling of CO₂ radiative forcing (3.7W/m²), but doubling CO₂ ppm comes later due to log RF relationship [link] …
Sources, Seasonality, and Arctic-Antarctic Parity in the Hydrologic Cycle Response to CO2-Doubling [link]
More-Persistent Weak Stratospheric Polar Vortex States Linked to Cold Extremes [link]
Deep Uncertainty Surrounding Coastal Flood Risk Projections: A Case Study for New Orleans [link]
The greening of the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau under climate change [link]
Methods and model dependency of extreme event attribution: The 2015 European drought [link]
Roles of wind stress & thermodynamic forcing in recent trends in Antarctic sea ice & Southern Ocean SST https://buff.ly/2jS8DzZ
Can measurements of near-infrared solar spectral irradiance be reconciled? New ground-based assessment [link]
Tropical ocean contributions to California’s surprisingly dry El Niño of 2015-16 — Indian/WPac SST spatial pattern [link]
Madden-Julian Oscillation remotely accelerates ocean upwelling to abruptly terminate 1997/1998 El Niño [link]
New observations will help models better reflect seasonal air-sea exchanges of #CO2. [link]
Variability and quasi-decadal changes in the methane budget over the period 2000–2012 [link]
New MIT research reveals spiral upwelling pathways and timescales of deep, overturning waters in the Southern Ocean. [link]
Fingerprints of Sea-Level Rise on Changing Tides in the Chesapeake and Delaware Bays [link]
Modelling past, present and future peatland carbon accumulation across the pan-Arctic region [link]
The evolution and volcanic forcing of the southern annular mode during the past 300 years [link]
On the causes of trends in the seasonal amplitude of atmospheric CO2 [link]
There are inherent uncertainties in all sea ice (e.g., extent) data sets. This presentation provides a nice overview [link] …
Warming & wetting climate during last century revealed by an ice core in NW Tibetan Plateau [link]
Understanding the effect of #Arctic sea ice decline on the AMOC [link]…
Driving Roles of Tropospheric and Stratospheric Thermal Anomalies in the Arctic Superstorm in 2012 [link]
Synchronous volcanic eruptions & climate change ∼17.7 ka linked by stratospheric ozone depletion [link]
Are the climate models running too hot? [link]
Climatic and synoptic characterization of heat waves in Brazil [link]
Carbon budget controversy
Nature: Limiting global warming to 1.5C may still be possible [link]
Richard Millar: Why the 1.5C warming limit is not yet a geophysical impossibility [link]
NEW #ClimateChange calculations could buy the Earth some time, if they’re right [link]
Climate change predictions — what went wrong? [link] …
How robust is Figure 10 in AR5 SPM? [link]
So there was a pause after all, says the Met Office, and the models have run too hot, as sceptics said: [link]
Different Ways of Thinking about Carbon Budgets, Three problems with Millar et al [link]
Possible good news about climate change leads to confused coverage [link]
How to interpret the news about an extended carbon budget politically? [link]
Social science and policy
Why (UK) politicians see #climate as an unattractive issue. [link]
Hurricane Irma: The Caribbean’s pioneering form of disaster insurance [link]
Flood insurance is broken. Here are some ways to fix it [link]
Disaster mitigation is cost effective [link]
Rethinking the infrastructure discussion amid a blitz of hurricanes [link]
Cultural multilevel selection: cooperative agreements are not likely to solve climate change [link]
How Merkel’s Green Energy Policy Has Fueled Demand for Coal [link]
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About science
AGU’s new data policy [link]
Forcing consensus is bad for science and society [link]
Must read article from David Spiegelhalter: Risk and uncertainty communication [link] “Acknowledge the limitations of the information conveyed in its quality and relevance.”
Timidity and a hostility to competition have left Europe a scientific wasteland [link]