Part 1 of this article examined the nature of Azerbaijan’s political and economic development since the end of the Soviet Union nearly twenty five years ago, with specific attention paid to the country’s relations with the West.
There is a perception among political observers who monitor the Caspian region that Azerbaijan is a staunch ally of the West, that its military and intelligence cooperation with the West, coupled with its reliance on Western oil investment for the continued exploitation of its Caspian reserves, has transformed Azerbaijan into an unshakeable ally of Washington and Brussels. In some ways, this has certainly been true in recent years. The deals with European and American energy corporations have infused the Baku-Washington relationship with billions of dollars in investment. The military and intelligence cooperation with Israel has certainly fostered the perception that Azerbaijan is closer to Israel and the West than to Russia, Iran, or any of its regional neighbors. And yet, from the perspective of the West, there is undoubtedly something rotten in Baku.
The once rock-solid alliance has become far more unstable in recent years as Azerbaijan’s importance and image in the eyes of the West has, in many ways, declined. While western leaders have been quick to point to Baku’s crackdown on western-sponsored NGOs and so called “democracy activists,” the reality is that material concerns dominate the changing nature of the relationship. Where once the West, in particular the United States, saw in Azerbaijan and the Caspian region a potential bonanza for energy revenue and decreasing Europe’s reliance on Russian gas, today serious doubts exist about the sustainability, let alone total capacity, of the Azerbaijani reserves. While it was quite fashionable to see Baku as a staunch ally against Moscow, today doubts about this too have emerged as Russia looks to promote cooperation and business relations with the country as a counterweight to US machinations in the region.
In order to fully appreciate the changing nature of Azerbaijan’s geopolitical and strategic alignment, one must first examine how and why Azerbaijan has begun to move out of the West’s orbit. In so doing, the aggressive attitude and seemingly belligerent approach from western leaders toward Azerbaijan begins to become clearer. In particular, the levers of power that the West is using against Azerbaijan are well known both in Baku, and in Moscow. This is critical because, as was the case during the Soviet era, Russia is in many ways still an alternative to US domination. And so, the question becomes: Is Azerbaijan charting a truly new, independent path for itself? Or, is the country merely continuing its multi-vector strategy of playing Russia and the West off each other?
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