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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2018-10-18 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights statements in SR15 relating to carbon...

Judith Curry - 2018-10-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

I have prepared a new talk that I presented yesterday at Rand Corp. My contact at Rand is Rob Lempert...

Judith Curry - 2018-10-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C  is now published [link].

The good news is that it is better written and with better diagrams — no more turgid prose and obscure diagrams that we’ve come to expect from the IPCC.

The other ‘good’ news is...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

How well do stratospheric reanalyses reproduce high-resolution satellite temperature measurements?  https://buff.ly/2OnYyIS 

Warming ocean waters intensified devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:    [link...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-20 - Original post - cached version

by Patrick J. Michaels

We’ve long been fond of showing the satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide, particularly the work of Zhu et al.(2016):

Figure 1: Trends in Leaf Area Index around the planet. Note the units are in hundredths (10-2...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“Impending massive hurricanes bring the best out of weather twitter and the worst out of climate twitter” – Joseph Maykut

Every time we have a tropical cyclone landfall in the U.S., there is an explosion of public statements regarding the role (or not) of human...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-17 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick

I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.

Google Scholar insists on providing a list of “recommended” articles whenever I...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

I will be at this meeting:  Next week, 300+ scientists will exchange ideas on #weather and #climate variations on subseasonal to decadal timescales. Watch the meeting live: [link] …

“Potential surface...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-08 - Original post - cached version

by Donald Rapp

On the terminations of Ice Ages.

Terminations occur on solar up-lobes

There is no doubt that there is merit in the widely accepted Milankovitch theory that Ice Ages and their terminations are controlled by solar input to the NH in mid-summer. It is also clear...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-05 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

A critique of of a new paper by Andrews  et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.

Plain language summary

A new paper led by a UK Met Office scientist claims that accounting for the difference in...
Judith Curry - 2018-09-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”-  Charles Manski

Twitter is great for networking.  My recent article Climate Uncertainty and Risk engendered a tweet and email from Professor Matthew Kahn,...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Urbanization effects on changes in the observed air temperatures during 1977–2014 in China [link]

The war over supercooled water [link]

...
Judith Curry - 2018-08-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

About the U.S. CLIVAR program:

US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) is a national research program with a mission to foster...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-14 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows they depend on obliquity-linked summer energy, ice-...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.

The news and twitterati are abuzz with the idea of ‘Hothouse Earth’, based on a new paper published in PNAS [link]:

Trajectories of the Earth System in the...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Attributing high impact extreme events across timescales — a case study of four different events. [link]

Increasing coupling of Pacific dynamics leads to prolonged marine heat waves [link]

Detection of...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A remarkable essay by  esteemed oceanographer Carl Wunsch.

While doing a literature survey for my paper on Climate Uncertainty and Risk, I came across a remarkable paper published in 2010 by MIT oceanographer Carl Wunsch, entitled Towards Understanding the...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

North American mega droughts in the Common Era [link]

Ice sheets interact with the atmosphere, ocean, lithosphere, sea ice, and biosphere. How does it all work? Via @AGU_Eos  [link]

A fresh take on...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

It’s been about 5  years since I’ve written a new article on this topic; this article provides my current perspectives on this topic.

This article is in draft form; I will submit it in a...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-03 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick and John Christy

Note: this is a revised version to correct the statement about CFCs and methane in Scenario B.

How accurate were James Hansen’s 1988 testimony and subsequent JGR article forecasts of global warming? According to a laudatory article by AP’s Seth...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-28 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change

Summary: For the past decade anthropogenic emissions have slowed down, and continuation of current trends suggests a peak in emissions by 2050. Atmospheric CO2levels should reach 500 ppm but might stabilize soon...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-25 - Original post - cached version

by Dan Hughes and Tomas Milanovic

Further reflections on the application of the divergence theorem to the Earth’s climate system.

Introduction

The subject of a recent post at CE was application of the divergence theorem to some aspects of Earth’s climate systems. Application of...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A discussion thread to ponder the uncertainties in glacial isostatic adjustment and the implications for past and future sea level rise.

I’m in the process of completing my report on the sea level rise, the preliminary notes for which were presented in my recent 7...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Antartica’s ice melt has accelerated [link]

Upcoming research by Jay Zwalley will buck the consensus and show Antartica is still gaining ice [link]

Antarctica’s Ice May Be More Durable Than We Thought [...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-13 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My presentation  is provided here.  This is being posted at the start of the event.

I HUGELY appreciate the comments that you provided on that one slide [link], both in the comments and sent via email.  I definitely got the message.

I will be very interested...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Countdown to the ‘conversation’ between Mann, Titley, Moore, Curry.  Looks like you can now register for the live broadcast, for a fee of $10 [link].

I will post my talk about 15 minutes before the start of the event.  If anyone knows how to make a...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A recent and worthy attempt to redefine the ‘front’ in the ‘climate wars’, which could lead to a truce and possibly pave the way for rational progress.

Matt Nisbet has published a...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My new talk on improving seasonal to interannual climate predictions.

This week, I am attending the Weather Risk Management Conference (WRMA) in Miami.


 

Utility of climate forecasts for risk mgt

In providing forecasts for the...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

This is rather astonishing, kudos to Best Schools for putting this together.

Best Schools has put together another very interesting list:  Top 15 Climate Change Scientists – Consensus and Skeptics.   Recall their previous list that included the top 50 women in STEM...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

How can the fundamental disagreement about the causes of climate change be most effectively communicated?

I have made numerous posts related to this topic, see especially

The heart of the climate dynamics debate

My specific motivation for this post is to...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On June 12, I am scheduled to appear in a debate that includes Michael Mann

Here are the details from the website:

Climate change is undeniable. But is human activity causing it, and if so, to what degree? How are current public policies helping or...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-22 - Original post - cached version

by Dan Hughes

It is not a boundary value problem.

Abstract

The total energy equation is applied to Earth’s entire atmosphere and sub-systems to investigate requirements that the energy content of Earth’s climate system remains constant. The results are somewhat more complex than...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

My interview last week on the Tucker Carlson Show [link]

Coherent Circulation Changes in the Deep North Atlantic from 16°N and 26°N Transport Arrays [link]  

Teleconnection between the climates of the...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Committee on Science, Space & Technology Hearing on Using Technology to Address Climate Change is about to begin.

Date:  Wednesday, May 16, 2018 – 10:00am Location: 2318 Rayburn House Office Building . Website and livestream [link] . Witnesses...
Judith Curry - 2018-04-30 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

Plain language summary

A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method can vary widely due to internal...
Judith Curry - 2018-04-24 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“.  The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.

There has been...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The coming revolution in numerical weather prediction [link]

Dessler, Mauritsen and Stevens:  The influence of internal variability on Earth’s energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-19 - Original post - cached version

by Garth Paltridge

An essay on the state of climate change science.

(1) Is the science of climate change ‘settled’?

The scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change(25), and as...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The final installment in the CE series on sea level rise.

1. Introduction

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has increased by about 8–9 inches since 1880, with about 3 inches occurring since 1993. As discussed in Part VI, scientists expect that GMSL will continue...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

New paper from Christy et al. corrects drift in NOAA-14 satellite, affected the trend by ~ 0.05 C/decade in the 1990s and the early 2000s. [link]

How extreme events are defined across disciplines and the...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-06 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

Attempting to breach the ENSO springtime  ‘predictability barrier.’

The springtime predictability barrier in ENSO predictions (Webster and  Yang 1992) arises from stochastic processes occurring in the tropical Pacific that are tied to the annual...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-29 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.

Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Major uncertainty of estimates of carbon trapped in soil [link]

A Geological Perspective of the Greenland Ice Sheet [link]

Next generation climate models could learn, improve on the fly [link]

...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-23 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.

In Part 1  the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-19 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity:  their nature and assessment of validity.

There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-11 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

A few days ago a paper (Sato et al) dealing with some aspects of the “Aerosol Cloud Interactions”, (ACI, also called “aerosol indirect effects”) was released. It bolsters the conclusions of earlier papers: the effective radiative forcing from ACI (ERFaci) is smaller than...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Suggestions for the climate ‘red team’ response.

This post is motivated by a twitter thread from Andrew Dessler that responds to a recent ruling in the Northern California versus the oil companies lawsuit (discussed previously here)

The judge posed 8...

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