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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2019-02-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some recent sea level rise publications, with implications for how we think about the worst case scenario for the 21st century.

Less than 3 months ago, I published my Special Report on Sea Level and Climate Change.  I remarked on what a fast moving field this was,...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-07 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Some reactions from Wednesday’s Congressional testimony.

I’m starting this post while sitting in the Phoenix airport waiting for my delayed flight home (by the time I get home, I will have been up for 24 hours today/tomorrow).

Sometimes I wonder why I bother...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-06 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Natural Resources Committee Hearing on Climate Change will be livestreamed on their Facebook page.

Here is the link to the Hearing page [link], I have no idea if they will post the other written testimonies.

My written testimony is posted at [Curry...

Judith Curry - 2019-02-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I will be testifying on Wed in the House Natural Resources Hearing on Climate change.

That  is, I will be testifying provided that I can make it out of Reno today — we are on the tail end of the massive snow storm in the Sierras.  You may recall that last May, I...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-29 - Original post - cached version

by Kevin Murphy

A response to: “Is RCP8.5 an impossible scenario?”. This post demonstrates that RCP8.5 is so highly improbable that it should be dismissed from consideration, and thereby draws into question the validity of RCP8.5-based assertions such as those made in the Fourth National...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-26 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Important new paper analyzing troposphere/stratosphere measurements and implications for understanding climate change [link]

Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections [...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-23 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A careful look at the early 20th century global warming, which is almost as large as the warming since 1950.  Until we can explain the early 20th century warming, I have little confidence IPCC and NCA4 attribution statements regarding the cause of the recent warming....

Judith Curry - 2019-01-21 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

*** UPDATE : response to comments by Zeke Hausfather appended

There are a number of statements in Cheng et al. (2019) ‘How fast are the oceans warming’, (‘the paper’) that appear to be mistaken and/or potentially misleading. My analysis of these issues is followed by a...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There have several interesting papers on ocean heat content published in recent weeks, with some very important implications.

The first paper has a narrative that ‘the oceans are warming faster than we thought and now the ocean warming matches the climate model...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The longest homogeneous series of grape harvest dates, 1354–2018, and its significance for the understanding of past and present climate [link]

Uncertainties in shoreline change reconstructions and projections...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-05 - Original post - cached version

by Alan Cannell

The new tropical lands: a carbon sink during formation and huge source of carbon dioxide and methane when lost to the sea.

Why do Sea Level Changes Always Stop at about the Same Heights?

Sea water levels in the Red Sea (Hannish Sill) shows that these have risen and...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-04 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

A demonstration that multidecadal variation since 1950 leads to overestimation of the Transient Climate Response (TCR).

Introduction

Inspired by a recent paper ( Folland et.al 2018), I try to replicate the annual development of the observed global mean...

Judith Curry - 2019-01-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“You can say I don’t believe in gravity. But if you step off the cliff you are going down. So we can say I don’t believe climate is changing, but it is based on science.” – Katherine Hayhoe, co-author of the 4th National Climate Assessment Report.

So, should we...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Happy New Year!

In thinking about what to write for this post, I took a look at the previous end of year posts at Climate Etc.  In the early years of the blog, I focused on end of year blog statistics and CE’s ‘greatest hits’.  Some years I looked at other...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Global trends in wildfire and its impacts. “For the western USA, they indicate little change overall, and also that area burned at high severity has overall declined compared to pre-European settlement” [link]

...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Re-evaluating the ocean conveyor belt [link]

More robust #climate projections of #Arctic sea ice only possible by improving physics in simulations e.g. accounting for melt ponds & the loss of drifting snow...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There is a disturbing story coming out of the University of Washington surrounding Cliff Mass.

In preparing this article, I have received material from a member of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Washington. I also ran into another member...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-11 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

An observational estimate of transient (multidecadal) warming relative to cumulative CO2 emissions is little over half that per IPCC AR5 projections.

AR5 claims that CO2-caused warming would be undiminished for 1000 years after emissions cease, but observations...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“Concerning the inability of expert knowledge to resolve environmental controversy and the pressing need for a pragmatic reframing of policy problems to allow for solutions based on bipartisan values.”

It’s been a while since I’ve done a post on this topic.  A new...

Judith Curry - 2018-12-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Normalized hurricane damage in the continental United States 1900–2017 [link]

Pacific Decadal Oscillation and recent oxygen decline in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean [link] 

RMSS:  The troposphere...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Draft of article to be submitted for journal publication.

Well, I hope you are not overdosing on the issue of sea level rise.  But this paper is somewhat different, a philosophy of science paper.  Sort of how we think about thinking.

I would appreciate any...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I have now completed my assessment of sea level rise and climate change.

The complete report can be downloaded here [Special Report- Sea Level Rise].

My preliminary compilation of information was provided in the 7 part Climate Etc. series Sea level rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-26 - Original post - cached version

The term ‘CAGW’  has both appropriate and inappropriate usage.

Introduction

Rational Wiki says: ‘“CAGW”, for “catastrophic anthropogenic global warming”, is a snarl word (or snarl acronym) that global warming denialists use for the established science of climate change. A Google...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In considering ‘worst case’ climate change impacts, we first need to assess the realistic worst case for global carbon emissions.

The recently published U.S. National Climate Assessment shows that we are currently on track for RCP8.5.

The assumptions...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-23 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

There have been further interesting developments in this story

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio (δO2/N2) and CO2 atmospheric concentration. These are...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Reflections on Nic Lewis’ audit of the Resplandy et al. paper.

In response to Nic Lewis’ two blog posts critiquing the Resplandy et al. paper on ocean temperatures, co-author Ralph Keeling acknowledges the paper’s errors with these statements:

Scripps news...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-17 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

Introduction

The Resplandy et al. (2018) ocean heat uptake study (henceforth Resplandy18) is based on measured changes in the O2/N2 ratio of air sampled each year, compared to air stored in high pressure tanks originally sampled in the late 1980s and early 1990s, and...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-15 - Original post - cached version

by Andy West

A narrative propagated by emotive engagement, not veracity.

Introduction

Within the public domain, there is a widespread narrative of certainty (absent deep emissions cuts) of near-term (decades) climate catastrophe. This narrative is not supported by...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

“Fingerprints of internal drivers of Arctic sea ice loss in observations and model simulations” [link]

Conflicting Measurements Reduce Uncertainty in Climate Science [link]

California’s new earthquake...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-08 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

In a recent article I set out why I thought that the trend in ΔAPOClimate was overstated, and its uncertainty greatly understated, in the Resplandy et al. ocean heat uptake study. In this article I expand on the brief explanation of the points made about “trend errors” and “...

Judith Curry - 2018-11-06 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

Obviously doubtful claims about new research regarding ocean content reveal how unquestioning Nature, climate scientists and the MSM are.

On November 1st there was extensive coverage in the mainstream media[i] and online[ii] of a paper just published in the prestigious...

Judith Curry - 2018-10-27 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

A new gem from Steve McIntyre: New post at Climate Audit on North American tree ring network of PAGES2K (2013) and PAGES (2017). Bristlecone addiction continues unabated -heroin for paleoclimatologists. [link]

...

Judith Curry - 2018-10-18 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

A close reading of Chapters 1 and 2 of the IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR15) reveals some interesting changes from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), and other science-relevant statements. This article highlights statements in SR15 relating to carbon...

Judith Curry - 2018-10-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On possibilities, known neglecteds, and the vicious positive feedback loop between scientific assessment and policy making that has created a climate Frankenstein.

I have prepared a new talk that I presented yesterday at Rand Corp. My contact at Rand is Rob Lempert...

Judith Curry - 2018-10-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The IPCC Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5C  is now published [link].

The good news is that it is better written and with better diagrams — no more turgid prose and obscure diagrams that we’ve come to expect from the IPCC.

The other ‘good’ news is...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

How well do stratospheric reanalyses reproduce high-resolution satellite temperature measurements?  https://buff.ly/2OnYyIS 

Warming ocean waters intensified devastating 2017 Atlantic hurricane season:    [link...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-20 - Original post - cached version

by Patrick J. Michaels

We’ve long been fond of showing the satellite evidence for planetary greening caused by increasing carbon dioxide, particularly the work of Zhu et al.(2016):

Figure 1: Trends in Leaf Area Index around the planet. Note the units are in hundredths (10-2...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“Impending massive hurricanes bring the best out of weather twitter and the worst out of climate twitter” – Joseph Maykut

Every time we have a tropical cyclone landfall in the U.S., there is an explosion of public statements regarding the role (or not) of human...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-17 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick

I sat down to write a description of my new paper with John Christy, but when I looked up a reference via Google Scholar something odd cropped up that requires a brief digression.

Google Scholar insists on providing a list of “recommended” articles whenever I...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

I will be at this meeting:  Next week, 300+ scientists will exchange ideas on #weather and #climate variations on subseasonal to decadal timescales. Watch the meeting live: [link] …

“Potential surface...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-08 - Original post - cached version

by Donald Rapp

On the terminations of Ice Ages.

Terminations occur on solar up-lobes

There is no doubt that there is merit in the widely accepted Milankovitch theory that Ice Ages and their terminations are controlled by solar input to the NH in mid-summer. It is also clear...

Judith Curry - 2018-09-05 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

A critique of of a new paper by Andrews  et al., Accounting for changing temperature patterns increases historical estimates of climate sensitivity.

Plain language summary

A new paper led by a UK Met Office scientist claims that accounting for the difference in...
Judith Curry - 2018-09-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“If you want people to believe what you *do* know, you need to be up front about what you *don’t* know.”-  Charles Manski

Twitter is great for networking.  My recent article Climate Uncertainty and Risk engendered a tweet and email from Professor Matthew Kahn,...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Urbanization effects on changes in the observed air temperatures during 1977–2014 in China [link]

The war over supercooled water [link]

...
Judith Curry - 2018-08-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My article Climate Uncertainty and Risk has now been published in the Summer 2018 edition of CLIVAR Variations.

About the U.S. CLIVAR program:

US Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) is a national research program with a mission to foster...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-14 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows they depend on obliquity-linked summer energy, ice-...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.

The news and twitterati are abuzz with the idea of ‘Hothouse Earth’, based on a new paper published in PNAS [link]:

Trajectories of the Earth System in the...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Attributing high impact extreme events across timescales — a case study of four different events. [link]

Increasing coupling of Pacific dynamics leads to prolonged marine heat waves [link]

Detection of...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A remarkable essay by  esteemed oceanographer Carl Wunsch.

While doing a literature survey for my paper on Climate Uncertainty and Risk, I came across a remarkable paper published in 2010 by MIT oceanographer Carl Wunsch, entitled Towards Understanding the...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

North American mega droughts in the Common Era [link]

Ice sheets interact with the atmosphere, ocean, lithosphere, sea ice, and biosphere. How does it all work? Via @AGU_Eos  [link]

A fresh take on...

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