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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2018-08-14 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Summary: The IPCC expresses virtual certainty that a glaciation is not possible for the next 50 Kyr if CO2levels remain above 300 ppm. It is the long interglacial hypothesis. Analysis of interglacials of the past 800 Kyr shows they depend on obliquity-linked summer energy, ice-...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

We need to raise the bar on how we think about the possible worst case scenario for climate change.

The news and twitterati are abuzz with the idea of ‘Hothouse Earth’, based on a new paper published in PNAS [link]:

Trajectories of the Earth System in the...

Judith Curry - 2018-08-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Attributing high impact extreme events across timescales — a case study of four different events. [link]

Increasing coupling of Pacific dynamics leads to prolonged marine heat waves [link]

Detection of...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A remarkable essay by  esteemed oceanographer Carl Wunsch.

While doing a literature survey for my paper on Climate Uncertainty and Risk, I came across a remarkable paper published in 2010 by MIT oceanographer Carl Wunsch, entitled Towards Understanding the...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

North American mega droughts in the Common Era [link]

Ice sheets interact with the atmosphere, ocean, lithosphere, sea ice, and biosphere. How does it all work? Via @AGU_Eos  [link]

A fresh take on...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I’ve been invited to write an article on climate uncertainty and risk.

It’s been about 5  years since I’ve written a new article on this topic; this article provides my current perspectives on this topic.

This article is in draft form; I will submit it in a...

Judith Curry - 2018-07-03 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick and John Christy

Note: this is a revised version to correct the statement about CFCs and methane in Scenario B.

How accurate were James Hansen’s 1988 testimony and subsequent JGR article forecasts of global warming? According to a laudatory article by AP’s Seth...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-28 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

A conservative outlook on 21st century climate change

Summary: For the past decade anthropogenic emissions have slowed down, and continuation of current trends suggests a peak in emissions by 2050. Atmospheric CO2levels should reach 500 ppm but might stabilize soon...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-25 - Original post - cached version

by Dan Hughes and Tomas Milanovic

Further reflections on the application of the divergence theorem to the Earth’s climate system.

Introduction

The subject of a recent post at CE was application of the divergence theorem to some aspects of Earth’s climate systems. Application of...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A discussion thread to ponder the uncertainties in glacial isostatic adjustment and the implications for past and future sea level rise.

I’m in the process of completing my report on the sea level rise, the preliminary notes for which were presented in my recent 7...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Antartica’s ice melt has accelerated [link]

Upcoming research by Jay Zwalley will buck the consensus and show Antartica is still gaining ice [link]

Antarctica’s Ice May Be More Durable Than We Thought [...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-13 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My presentation  is provided here.  This is being posted at the start of the event.

I HUGELY appreciate the comments that you provided on that one slide [link], both in the comments and sent via email.  I definitely got the message.

I will be very interested...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Countdown to the ‘conversation’ between Mann, Titley, Moore, Curry.  Looks like you can now register for the live broadcast, for a fee of $10 [link].

I will post my talk about 15 minutes before the start of the event.  If anyone knows how to make a...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A recent and worthy attempt to redefine the ‘front’ in the ‘climate wars’, which could lead to a truce and possibly pave the way for rational progress.

Matt Nisbet has published a...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My new talk on improving seasonal to interannual climate predictions.

This week, I am attending the Weather Risk Management Conference (WRMA) in Miami.


 

Utility of climate forecasts for risk mgt

In providing forecasts for the...

Judith Curry - 2018-06-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

This is rather astonishing, kudos to Best Schools for putting this together.

Best Schools has put together another very interesting list:  Top 15 Climate Change Scientists – Consensus and Skeptics.   Recall their previous list that included the top 50 women in STEM...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

How can the fundamental disagreement about the causes of climate change be most effectively communicated?

I have made numerous posts related to this topic, see especially

The heart of the climate dynamics debate

My specific motivation for this post is to...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

On June 12, I am scheduled to appear in a debate that includes Michael Mann

Here are the details from the website:

Climate change is undeniable. But is human activity causing it, and if so, to what degree? How are current public policies helping or...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-22 - Original post - cached version

by Dan Hughes

It is not a boundary value problem.

Abstract

The total energy equation is applied to Earth’s entire atmosphere and sub-systems to investigate requirements that the energy content of Earth’s climate system remains constant. The results are somewhat more complex than...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

My interview last week on the Tucker Carlson Show [link]

Coherent Circulation Changes in the Deep North Atlantic from 16°N and 26°N Transport Arrays [link]  

Teleconnection between the climates of the...

Judith Curry - 2018-05-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The House Committee on Science, Space & Technology Hearing on Using Technology to Address Climate Change is about to begin.

Date:  Wednesday, May 16, 2018 – 10:00am Location: 2318 Rayburn House Office Building . Website and livestream [link] . Witnesses...
Judith Curry - 2018-04-30 - Original post - cached version

By Nic Lewis

Plain language summary

A new paper by Andrew Dessler et al. claims, based on 100 simulations of the historical period (1850 to date) by the MPI‑ESM1.1 climate model, that estimates of climate sensitivity using the energy-budget method can vary widely due to internal...
Judith Curry - 2018-04-24 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

We have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate “The impact of recent forcing and ocean heat uptake data on estimates of climate sensitivity“.  The paper also addresses critiques of LC15.

There has been...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The coming revolution in numerical weather prediction [link]

Dessler, Mauritsen and Stevens:  The influence of internal variability on Earth’s energy balance framework and implications for estimating climate...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-19 - Original post - cached version

by Garth Paltridge

An essay on the state of climate change science.

(1) Is the science of climate change ‘settled’?

The scientific uncertainties associated with climate prediction are the basis of most of the arguments about the significance of climate change(25), and as...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The final installment in the CE series on sea level rise.

1. Introduction

Global mean sea level (GMSL) has increased by about 8–9 inches since 1880, with about 3 inches occurring since 1993. As discussed in Part VI, scientists expect that GMSL will continue...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

New paper from Christy et al. corrects drift in NOAA-14 satellite, affected the trend by ~ 0.05 C/decade in the 1990s and the early 2000s. [link]

How extreme events are defined across disciplines and the...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-06 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

Attempting to breach the ENSO springtime  ‘predictability barrier.’

The springtime predictability barrier in ENSO predictions (Webster and  Yang 1992) arises from stochastic processes occurring in the tropical Pacific that are tied to the annual...

Judith Curry - 2018-04-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The concern about sea level rise is driven primarily by projections of future sea level rise.

Observed sea level rise over the last century has averaged about 8 inches, although local values may be substantially more or less based on local vertical land motion, land...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-29 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions.

Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Major uncertainty of estimates of carbon trapped in soil [link]

A Geological Perspective of the Greenland Ice Sheet [link]

Next generation climate models could learn, improve on the fly [link]

...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-23 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible.

In Part 1  the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such constraints in Caldwell et...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-19 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

Emergent constraints on climate sensitivity:  their nature and assessment of validity.

There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-17 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In looking for causes, I have applied the ‘Sherlock Holmes procedure’ of eliminating one suspect after another. The procedure has left us without any good suspect. Thermal expansion was the candidate of choice at the time of the first IPCC review. The computed steric rise...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-11 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

A few days ago a paper (Sato et al) dealing with some aspects of the “Aerosol Cloud Interactions”, (ACI, also called “aerosol indirect effects”) was released. It bolsters the conclusions of earlier papers: the effective radiative forcing from ACI (ERFaci) is smaller than...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-09 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Suggestions for the climate ‘red team’ response.

This post is motivated by a twitter thread from Andrew Dessler that responds to a recent ruling in the Northern California versus the oil companies lawsuit (discussed previously here)

The judge posed 8...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-04 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Steele

 A better accounting of natural groundwater discharge is needed to constrain the range of contributions to sea level rise. The greater the contribution from groundwater discharge, the smaller the adjustments used to amplify contributions from meltwater and thermal expansion...

Judith Curry - 2018-03-03 - Original post - cached version

by Tony Brown

This article examines the continued cooling of CET this century

Looks at a similar scenario of regional cooling in America Examines CET related urbanisation issues, and the current Met office allowances for this Notes the centuries long general warming of our climate....
Judith Curry - 2018-02-26 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Summary: Modern Global Warming has been taking place for the past 300 years. It is the last of several multi-century warming periods that have happened during the Neoglacial cooling of the past 3000 years. Analysis of Holocene climate cycles shows that the period 1600-2100 AD...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation modulates the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline [link]

New article: The Ross Sea Dipole – temperature, snow accumulation and sea ice variability in the Ross Sea region,...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-18 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Part IV of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise focuses on the satellite era (since 1993), including the recent causes of sea level variations and arguments regarding the acceleration (or not) of recent sea level rise.

Part III considered historical sea level...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Big news in the world of ‘climate wars’ – the libel case of Andrew Weaver versus Tim Ball has been dismissed by the judge —  for a rather surprising reason.

Some context on all this is provided in a WUWT post by Tim Ball — Tim Ball’s Victory in the First Climate...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

The real culprit behind snowmelt floods isn’t temperature – its dirt [link]

Pacific Islands Getting Bigger, Despite Rising Seas [link] 

New paper by Dan Lubin at Scripps: Cooling Sun May Partially Offset...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-10 - Original post - cached version

By Judith Curry

“We are in the uncomfortable position of extrapolating into the next century without understanding the last.” – Walter Munk 

Part II provided an overview of the relatively recent geological evidence for sea level variations. Part III considers the historical...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-05 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from observations’.[1]

As some readers may recall, I found six...

Judith Curry - 2018-02-01 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Inspiring biosketches of some amazing female scientists, which rather astonishingly includes moi.

While at the Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society a few weeks ago, a number of people mentioned my Girls Rule(s) blog post, saying that it stimulated...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Paper of the week:

Decreasing cloud cover drives recent mass loss on the Greenland ice sheet

Abstract. The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been losing mass at an accelerating rate since the mid-1990s....

Judith Curry - 2018-01-26 - Original post - cached version

by Phil Salmon

How a small group of people from Africa changed the world.

Paleoclimatology, the study of climate in the past all the way back to deep time, is one of the pillars of climate science. It shows us the wide range of climates that have existed on earth, from near-global...

Judith Curry - 2018-01-24 - Original post - cached version

By Judith Curry

Part II of the Climate Etc. series on sea level rise –the geological record provides context for the recent sea level rise.

Part I provided a context for examining observations and causes of global sea level rise. I greatly appreciate the comments on the blog posts...

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