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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2017-08-16 - Original post - cached version

by Dr. Ronan Connolly & Dr. Michael Connolly

Satellite observations indicate that the average Arctic sea ice extent has generally decreased since the start of the satellite records in October 1978. Is this period long enough to assess whether the current sea level trend is unusual,...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

For the sake of argument, let’s accept the IPCC conclusions regarding attribution of global warming, and their 21st century projections.  So, exactly who in the U.S. bears the blame for current and future damages?

This is not an academic question. There are two...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-07 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

A possible mechanism for the effect of solar variability on climate, whereby solar variability acts over the stratospheric pressure system transmitting the changes top-down, and over ocean temperatures bottom-up.

Summary: In part A, we established the existence of a ~...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-06 - Original post - cached version

by Peter Davies

While onshore wind generation has been relatively inexpensive for some time, solar PV and lithium ion battery storage costs have recently shown dramatic reductions. So can Texas, with excellent onshore wind and solar resources, be powered economically entirely by...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming [link]

Ocean heat content variability in an ensemble of twentieth century ocean reanalyses [link]

Understanding drivers of past...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-29 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

Increasing evidence of small aerosol forcing supports the importance of internal variability in explaining inter hemispheric differences in temperature variability.

In the CMIP5 climate models, we find two strong anthropogenic forcings influencing the climate: the...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-19 - Original post - cached version

by Mike Smith

For a decade, the weathercaster and broadcast meteorology communities have been subject of a focused campaign to force them to cover global warming in a manner acceptable to the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union and other advocacy groups.

...
Judith Curry - 2017-07-17 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

In Part A, we established the existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray. This climate cycle correlates in period and phase with a ~ 2400-year cycle in the production of cosmogenic isotopes, that corresponds with clusters of solar grand minima at...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

I’ve studied Larsen C and its giant iceberg for years – it’s not a simple story of climate change [link]  

Southern Ocean Decadal Variability and Predictability [link]

Record cold wave in Greenland [link...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)

David Wallace-Wells has a recent cover story in NYMagazine:  The Uninhabitable Earth.  Subtitle: Famine, economic...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-12 - Original post - cached version

By Javier

The existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray, is supported by abundant evidence from vegetation changes, glacier re-advances, atmospheric changes reflected in alterations in wind patterns, oceanic temperature and salinity changes, drift ice...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There is an opportunity to steer the proposed red team exercise in a useful direction.  The first step is to frame the problem to be addressed.

The climate red team continues to be discussed in the media and by scientists, a few examples:

Leading climate...
Judith Curry - 2017-07-08 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based climate sensitivity...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-05 - Original post - cached version

by Vincent Randall

A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’

In this essay I am going to try to introduce non-economists who work in fields where they are first coming into contact with the ‘uncertainty monster’ – as Judith Curry calls it – to what...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Last week, Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator, stated he intended to form a ‘red team’ to debate climate science.  What exactly is ‘red teaming’, and how can this be implemented in a way that is useful for climate science and for policy makers?

Reactions to proposed...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Large reductions in solar energy production due to dust and particulate air pollution [link] 

Towards a new estimate of “time of emergence” of anthropogenic warming –  [link]

Melting and cracking – is...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-01 - Original post - cached version

 

by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website.

Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.

“Estimating economic damage from climate change in...
Judith Curry - 2017-06-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Tough days on The Hill for the enforcers of the climate consensus.

While EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has been taking most of the ‘heat’ for the Trump administrations climate policy, this past week Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-22 - Original post - cached version

The National Climate Assessment must be redirected or terminated

by Patrick J. Michaels

Periodic National Assessments of the effects of climate change on the U.S. are mandated by the 1990 Global Change Research Act. The next Assessment Report is scheduled to be published in late...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Why real nobodies are more powerful than repressed somebodies.

The U.S. first tweeting President has upended our perceptions on the appropriate method for a President communicate. Millions of people are perplexed and horrified by President Trump’s tweets. Stepping...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

Researchers uncover a cause for early 20th century Arctic warming [link] JC note: basically, the stadium wave

Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1200 years [...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s  first seasonal forecast for  Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.

Research conducted by Senior Scientist Jim Johnstone...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

QTIIPS stands for Quantitatively Trivial Impact + Intense Political Symbolism. – Keith Hennessey

Over the past week, I’ve read over a hundred articles related to Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Accord.  I was vaguely wondering how to summarize my thoughts on all...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-29 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

The Neoglacial has been a period of progressive cooling, increasing aridity, and advancing glaciers, culminating in the Little Ice Age. The main Holocene climatic cycle of ~ 2400 years delimits periods of more stable climatic conditions which were identified over a century ago....

Judith Curry - 2017-05-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

An overview of studies of observed climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region [link]

Study: sea level rise acceleration still uncertain, we won’t have statistical certainty until 2020-2030 [link]...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

Bret Stephens’ climate change op-ed of several weeks ago Climate of Complete Certainty spawned a number of articles related to uncertainty and climate change.

Andy Revkin’s article in response was...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-14 - Original post - cached version

by Peter Davies

Scenarios to understand how load, wind, solar PV and storage interact and whether a 100% renewable grid for Texas is technically feasible.

Given the stated policy of the new USA administration this might not seem the best time to explore whether renewable...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-09 - Original post - cached version

by Planning Engineer

How feasible are calls for 100% renewable energy?

In previous columns I’ve discussed characteristics of wind and solar generation that will result in increasing concerns as they grow to provide an increase portion of the electric supply. PJM has recently made...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The scary emergence of Nye’s Quadrant in dominating the public discourse on climate change.

If you are unfamiliar with Pasteur’s Quadrant, read my previous post [link].  The focus of my previous post was on use-inspired basic research.  I struggled with the 4th...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-30 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

First in a two part series on Holocene climate variability.

Summary: Holocene climate is characterized by two initial millennia of fast warming followed by four millennia of higher temperatures and humidity, and a progressively accelerating cooling and drying for the...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-24 - Original post - cached version

By Planning Engineer

On April 14th, 2017 Rick Perry wrote a memo headed “STUDY EXAMINING ELECTRICITY MARKETS AND RELAIBILITY” calling for study to investigate how long term energy trends my impact the grid.

My “sciencey” friends on social media are linking to this article, “Energy...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-23 - Original post - cached version

by Makarieva A.M., Gorshkov V.G., Nefiodov A.V., Chikunov A.V., Sheil D., Nobre A.D., Li B.-L.

New questions and ideas about hurricanes and their power.

Predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones, hurricanes and typhoons is a recognized challenge. We are grateful to Judith for...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Pondering some thorny issues regarding science, its place in society and its relationship to politics.

Well today is the much-hyped March for Science. Last month I wrote a post Exactly what are scientists marching for?  Since my previous post, something like a...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Put the ‘consensus’ to a test, and improve public understanding, though an open and adversarial process. – Steve Koonin

Steve Koonin has an op-ed published today in the Wall Street Journal:  A ‘Red Team’ Exercise Would Strengthen Climate Science  [link].  Annotated...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-18 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

Kyle Armour has a new paper out in Nature Climate Change: “Energy budget constraints on climate sensitivity in light of inconstant climate feedbacks”.

Its two key claims are:

“global climate models robustly show that feedbacks vary over time, with a strong...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Climate Feedback has interviewed a number of scientists regarding the recent House Hearing on climate science.

The article:  Scientists reactions to the US House Science Committee hearing on climate science.

The scientists that were interviewed:  James...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-12 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

One needs to ask good questions about whose claims to trust and why. – Sheila Jasanoff

Sheila Jasanoff has a new essay, entitled What Should Democracies Know? that provides some interesting perspective on ‘alt-facts’, etc. Excerpts:

The “post-truth,” “alt-...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Updated AGU Ethics Policy available for member comment.  Proposed new language identifies harassment and bullying as scientific misconduct.

From AGU News:  Updated AGU Ethics Policy Available for Member Comment.  Excerpts:

The current policy is silent on the...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Freshening of the Labrador Sea as a trigger for Little Ice Age development [link] 

Twentieth-century Trends in the...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-07 - Original post - cached version

by Rud Istvan

A novel hypothesis on the role of CO2 in the technological transition from hunter/gatherers to sedentary agriculture.

This guest post has been formulating for several weeks. It summarizes a fascinating hypothesis in a guest post by Don Healy at WUWT some weeks ago,...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Two excellent articles about science, facts, and post-factualism.

Sabine Hossenfelder just published a superb essay in Nature Physics, entitled Science needs reason to be trusted.  Subtitle: That we now live in the grip of post-factualism would seem naturally...

Judith Curry - 2017-04-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Sun’s impact on climate quantified for the first time [link]

North Pacific 20th century decadal-scale variability is unique for the past 342 years [link]

A reconstructed South Atlantic Meridional...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-31 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

House Science Committee Hearing:  where the so-called ‘deniers’ behave like scientists and the defender of the establishment consensus . . . lies.

Well, I’ve returned home following the recent Hearing, and have had a chance to reflect, as well as follow the twitter...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My testimony at the House Science Committee Hearing on Climate Science: Assumptions, Policy Implications and the Scientific Method.

The text of my written testimony is here [Curry house science testimony mar 17].   I really enjoyed preparing this testimony, it...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-25 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

“I think this should be the way forward, translating [overarching climate goals] into ‘policy portfolios’ and then asking policymakers if they are going to do it or not.” — Oliver Geden

A provocative paper has been published in Science:

A roadmap for rapid...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Witnesses:  John Christy, Judith Curry, Michael Mann and Roger Pielke Jr.

The hearing will be held next week, March 29.  The announcement for the Hearing is [here].

I’ve completed my written testimony, I will post it Wednesday once the Hearing has commenced...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

I’m looking for ideas and discussion on ways to improve what I regard to be a broken interface between climate science and policy.

I’m preparing a new document (I’ll be able to post it next week).  I’m struggling with how to frame some recommendations for improving...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-17 - Original post - cached version

by David Hagen

Should California plan for permanent drought or climate persistence?

After six years of drought, California was deluged in 2017 by sequential “atmospheric rivers” causing the highest January/February rainfall on recent record. California’s Oroville Dam experienced...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-11 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My analysis of EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt’s recent statements on climate change, and the response to his statements.

Last week, there was a controversial interview of Scott Pruitt on CNBC. A sampling of the headlines reporting on his interview:

New...

Judith Curry - 2017-03-06 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The smartest people on the planet want to oppose Trump & the best they can come up with is a march in support of themselves? – Roger Pielke Jr

A mega March for Science has been planned for Earth Day (April 22) in Washington DC.  The web site states:

The...

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