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Judith Curry

Judith Curry - 2017-12-10 - Original post - cached version

by Telis Koskinas

On February 2017, Oroville Dam gained worldwide attention when its main spillway suddenly failed, seemingly without precedent, under natural operating conditions.

While thankfully no casualties were caused by this incident, its direct and indirect effects will be...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-02 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

Summary: Holocene climate has been affected in different periods by several centennial to millennial solar cycles. The ~ 1000-year Eddy solar cycle seems to have dominated Holocene climate variability between 11,500-4,000 years BP, and in the last two millennia, where it defines...

Judith Curry - 2017-12-01 - Original post - cached version

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

The good news: the 2017 Atlantic hurricane season is over.  The bad news: it was an extremely active season, with substantial damage in the U.S. and the Caribbean islands. What caused this extremely active hurricane season, and was it foreseeable?

...
Judith Curry - 2017-11-29 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

In private, climate scientists are much less certain than they tell the public. – Rupert Darwall

Rupert Darwall has written a tour-de-force essay “A Veneer of Certainty Stoking Climate Alarm“, which has been published by CEI [link to full essay].

Foreword...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

“The study’s authors estimate groundwater depletion in the United States could be responsible for releasing 1.7 million metric tons (3.8 billion pounds) of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere every year.”[link]

...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-14 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

National security implications of the rapidly changing global population dynamic.

Earlier this week, Peter Webster made a presentation at the National Security Forum on The coming global demographic imbalance [link] to the ppt presentation.

Below is the...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Red-teaming the the U.S. government’s Climate Science Special Report on the topic of sea level rise.

Steve Koonin as a new op-ed in the WSJ:  A Deceptive New Report on Climate.  that clarifies the need for a Climate Red Team.  Excerpts:

One notable example...

Judith Curry - 2017-11-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Mannian litigation gone wild. — Steve McIntyre

Details given by Michael Schellenberger in Environmental Progress:

Stanford University professor Mark Z. Jacobson has filed a lawsuit, demanding $10 million in damages, against the peer-reviewed scientific...

Judith Curry - 2017-10-27 - Original post - cached version

By Planning Engineer

Considerable efforts are being undertaken to restore power in Puerto Rico. Most coverage has been pessimistic focusing on challenging logistics and contentious issues with very little upbeat coverage on progress so far. There is one major exception to this trend, the...

Judith Curry - 2017-10-22 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The aim of education is to make people think, not spare them from discomfort. – Robert Zimmer

Campus craziness

In case you haven’t been following this issue, there have been some disturbing events and trends in the ivory tower.  For an overview, see:

In...
Judith Curry - 2017-10-07 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Did a slower AMOC 12,000 yrs ago contribute to increased hurricane intensity? [link]

Low-Frequency Climate Modes and Antarctic Sea Ice Variations, 1982-2013 [link] 

Understanding the detectability of...

Judith Curry - 2017-10-06 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

My recent interview with David Whitehouse of the Global Warming Policy Foundation on Hurricanes Harvey and Irma and the link with global warming.

The video of the interview:

Transcript:

DW:  First of all – do we understand hurricanes?

JC:  We...

Judith Curry - 2017-09-26 - Original post - cached version

by Ross McKitrick

A number of authors, including the IPCC, have argued that climate models have systematically overstated the rate of global warming in recent decades. A recent paper by Millar et al. (2017) presented the same finding in a diagram of temperature change versus cumulative...

Judith Curry - 2017-09-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Concepts for dealing with complexity of weather and climate. [link]

Nature: Halfway to doubling of CO₂ radiative forcing (3.7W/m²), but doubling CO₂ ppm comes later due to log RF relationship [link]  …

...

Judith Curry - 2017-09-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

New J.Clim paper: hi res model finds fewer but stronger, wetter, and larger tropical cyclones with global warming [link]  …

PNAS:  the biosphere has become less constrained by water stress globally [link]

...
Judith Curry - 2017-09-15 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

The existence of a 1500-year climatic cycle during the Holocene, related to the glacial Dansgaard-Oeschger cycle, is a matter of intense debate. However, by introducing precise timing requirements it can be shown that the 1500-year cycle displayed in Northern Hemisphere glacial...

Judith Curry - 2017-09-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Cat 5 Hurricane Irma is one for the record books; it’s eye is on Florida.

___________

Summary

Major Hurricane Irma is predicted to strike the SW coast of Florida as a Cat 4 early Sun a.m., with a northward track covering the entire length of the state and...
Judith Curry - 2017-09-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Modulation of the seasonal cycle of Antarctic sea ice extent related to the Southern Annular Mode [link]

Extreme warming in the Kara Sea and Barents Sea during the winter period 2000 to 2016 [link] 

New...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-28 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The 12 year drought of major hurricane landfalls in the U.S. is over, with catastrophic impacts in Texas.  Predictions of Hurricane Harvey illustrate the realization of extended- and long-range hurricane forecasts.

This blog post analyzes the forecasts of Hurricane...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Calling on CE Denizens to review the Climate Science Special Report:  nominate an official reviewer, or participate in the CE Crowdsourced Review.

Pat Michaels recently posted an article at CE National Climate Assessment and the Tump administration. His post...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-21 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

This post is running parallel to the post Reviewing the Climate Science Special Report (a technical post), to accommodate general discussion on the topic

Filed under: Scientific method

Judith Curry - 2017-08-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

New study finds most of East #Antarctic ice sheet should remain stable. [link]

Linking global temperature and Arctic sea ice changes [link] …

On the possible contribution of natural climatic fluctuations...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-16 - Original post - cached version

by Dr. Ronan Connolly & Dr. Michael Connolly

Satellite observations indicate that the average Arctic sea ice extent has generally decreased since the start of the satellite records in October 1978. Is this period long enough to assess whether the current sea level trend is unusual,...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

For the sake of argument, let’s accept the IPCC conclusions regarding attribution of global warming, and their 21st century projections.  So, exactly who in the U.S. bears the blame for current and future damages?

This is not an academic question. There are two...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-07 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

A possible mechanism for the effect of solar variability on climate, whereby solar variability acts over the stratospheric pressure system transmitting the changes top-down, and over ocean temperatures bottom-up.

Summary: In part A, we established the existence of a ~...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-06 - Original post - cached version

by Peter Davies

While onshore wind generation has been relatively inexpensive for some time, solar PV and lithium ion battery storage costs have recently shown dramatic reductions. So can Texas, with excellent onshore wind and solar resources, be powered economically entirely by...

Judith Curry - 2017-08-05 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

A new mechanism for warm-season precipitation response to global warming [link]

Ocean heat content variability in an ensemble of twentieth century ocean reanalyses [link]

Understanding drivers of past...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-29 - Original post - cached version

by Frank Bosse

Increasing evidence of small aerosol forcing supports the importance of internal variability in explaining inter hemispheric differences in temperature variability.

In the CMIP5 climate models, we find two strong anthropogenic forcings influencing the climate: the...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-19 - Original post - cached version

by Mike Smith

For a decade, the weathercaster and broadcast meteorology communities have been subject of a focused campaign to force them to cover global warming in a manner acceptable to the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union and other advocacy groups.

...
Judith Curry - 2017-07-17 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

In Part A, we established the existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray. This climate cycle correlates in period and phase with a ~ 2400-year cycle in the production of cosmogenic isotopes, that corresponds with clusters of solar grand minima at...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-16 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

I’ve studied Larsen C and its giant iceberg for years – it’s not a simple story of climate change [link]  

Southern Ocean Decadal Variability and Predictability [link]

Record cold wave in Greenland [link...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-15 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The climate change debate has entered what we might call the “Campfire Phase”, in which the goal is to tell the scariest story. – Oren Cass (twitter)

David Wallace-Wells has a recent cover story in NYMagazine:  The Uninhabitable Earth.  Subtitle: Famine, economic...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-12 - Original post - cached version

By Javier

The existence of a ~ 2400-year climate cycle, discovered in 1968 by Roger Bray, is supported by abundant evidence from vegetation changes, glacier re-advances, atmospheric changes reflected in alterations in wind patterns, oceanic temperature and salinity changes, drift ice...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

There is an opportunity to steer the proposed red team exercise in a useful direction.  The first step is to frame the problem to be addressed.

The climate red team continues to be discussed in the media and by scientists, a few examples:

Leading climate...
Judith Curry - 2017-07-08 - Original post - cached version

by Nic Lewis

A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in most CMIP5 coupled global climate models (GCMs), brings observationally-based climate sensitivity...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-05 - Original post - cached version

by Vincent Randall

A perspective on economists’ grappling with the ‘uncertainty monster.’

In this essay I am going to try to introduce non-economists who work in fields where they are first coming into contact with the ‘uncertainty monster’ – as Judith Curry calls it – to what...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-03 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Last week, Scott Pruitt, EPA Administrator, stated he intended to form a ‘red team’ to debate climate science.  What exactly is ‘red teaming’, and how can this be implemented in a way that is useful for climate science and for policy makers?

Reactions to proposed...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-02 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

Large reductions in solar energy production due to dust and particulate air pollution [link] 

Towards a new estimate of “time of emergence” of anthropogenic warming –  [link]

Melting and cracking – is...

Judith Curry - 2017-07-01 - Original post - cached version

 

by Larry Kummer, originally posted at the Fabius Maximus website.

Another peer-reviewed paper predicting disaster from climate change by misrepresenting and exaggerating the science. We can still learn much from it.

“Estimating economic damage from climate change in...
Judith Curry - 2017-06-24 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Tough days on The Hill for the enforcers of the climate consensus.

While EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt has been taking most of the ‘heat’ for the Trump administrations climate policy, this past week Energy Secretary Rick Perry and Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-22 - Original post - cached version

The National Climate Assessment must be redirected or terminated

by Patrick J. Michaels

Periodic National Assessments of the effects of climate change on the U.S. are mandated by the 1990 Global Change Research Act. The next Assessment Report is scheduled to be published in late...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Why real nobodies are more powerful than repressed somebodies.

The U.S. first tweeting President has upended our perceptions on the appropriate method for a President communicate. Millions of people are perplexed and horrified by President Trump’s tweets. Stepping...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-10 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week

Researchers uncover a cause for early 20th century Arctic warming [link] JC note: basically, the stadium wave

Internal and external forcing of multidecadal Atlantic climate variability over the past 1200 years [...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-08 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN)’s  first seasonal forecast for  Atlantic hurricanes is based on a breakthrough in understanding of the impact of global climate dynamics on Atlantic hurricane activity.

Research conducted by Senior Scientist Jim Johnstone...

Judith Curry - 2017-06-04 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

QTIIPS stands for Quantitatively Trivial Impact + Intense Political Symbolism. – Keith Hennessey

Over the past week, I’ve read over a hundred articles related to Trump’s withdrawal from the Paris Accord.  I was vaguely wondering how to summarize my thoughts on all...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-29 - Original post - cached version

by Javier

The Neoglacial has been a period of progressive cooling, increasing aridity, and advancing glaciers, culminating in the Little Ice Age. The main Holocene climatic cycle of ~ 2400 years delimits periods of more stable climatic conditions which were identified over a century ago....

Judith Curry - 2017-05-20 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

An overview of studies of observed climate change in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region [link]

Study: sea level rise acceleration still uncertain, we won’t have statistical certainty until 2020-2030 [link]...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-19 - Original post - cached version

by Judith Curry

The many dimensions of the climate uncertainty monster.

Bret Stephens’ climate change op-ed of several weeks ago Climate of Complete Certainty spawned a number of articles related to uncertainty and climate change.

Andy Revkin’s article in response was...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-14 - Original post - cached version

by Peter Davies

Scenarios to understand how load, wind, solar PV and storage interact and whether a 100% renewable grid for Texas is technically feasible.

Given the stated policy of the new USA administration this might not seem the best time to explore whether renewable...

Judith Curry - 2017-05-09 - Original post - cached version

by Planning Engineer

How feasible are calls for 100% renewable energy?

In previous columns I’ve discussed characteristics of wind and solar generation that will result in increasing concerns as they grow to provide an increase portion of the electric supply. PJM has recently made...

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