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Climate Audit - 2018-10-24 - Original post - cached version

The PAGES (2017) North American network consists entirely of tree rings. Climate Audit readers will recall the unique role of North American stripbark bristlecone chronologies in Mann et al 1998 and Mann et al 2008 (and in the majority of IPCC multiproxy reconstructions).  In today’s post, I’ll...

Climate Audit - 2018-10-08 - Original post - cached version

The most recent large-scale compilation of proxy records over the past two millennia is PAGES (2017).  They made a concerted effort to archive data (to the credit of Julien Emile-Geay), archiving 692 series, but they perpetuated most other sins within the field.  Rather than abjuring ex post...

Climate Audit - 2018-07-19 - Original post - cached version

Central to the Mueller indictment is attribution to Russia of a spearphishing campaign from domains then located in Romania. It is therefore more than a little surprising that one of these spearphishing domains is not only still in operation in May 2018, but hosted in New York City.

The...

Climate Audit - 2018-05-26 - Original post - cached version

Jordan Peterson, a fellow Torontonian who is obviously not shy about challenging authority, recently cited the World Health Organization (WHO) on Douma chemical attacks as follows:

WHO says: “Bombs were dropped at two locations in Douma. Within hours, more than 500 people were...

Climate Audit - 2018-04-24 - Original post - cached version

In this post, I will provide a timeline of original appearances of videos and photos of the Douma chemical incident. There were two locations for these videos: (1) the emergency ward of the Douma hospital; (2) a small apartment building about 10 blocks from the hospital, where dead bodies were...

Climate Audit - 2018-04-24 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nic Lewis

Judith Curry and I have now updated the LC15 paper with a new paper that has been published in the Journal of Climate

There has been considerable scientific investigation of the magnitude of the warming of Earth’s climate by changes in atmospheric carbon...

Climate Audit - 2018-03-29 - Original post - cached version
The two strongest potentially credible constraints, and conclusions

A guest post by Nic Lewis

In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[1] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19...

Climate Audit - 2018-03-24 - Original post - cached version

In two influential articles in June 2016, immediately following the Crowdstrike announcement, SecureWorks (June 16 here and June 26 here) purported to connect the DNC hack to a 2015-6 phishing campaign which they attributed to APT28.  SecureWorks identified two malicious domains in their article...

Climate Audit - 2018-03-23 - Original post - cached version
The four constraints that Caldwell assessed as credible

A guest post by Nic Lewis

In Part 1 of this article the nature and validity of emergent constraints[i] on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in GCMs were discussed, drawing mainly on the analysis and assessment of 19 such...

Climate Audit - 2018-03-21 - Original post - cached version

In two influential articles in June 2016 (June 16 here and June 26 here), SecureWorks purported to link the then recently revealed DNC hack to Russia via a gmail phishing campaign which they had been monitoring since 2015 and which they attributed to APT28 (Fancy Bear). They had observed...

Climate Audit - 2018-03-19 - Original post - cached version
Their nature and assessment of their validity

A guest post by Nic Lewis

There have been quite a number of papers published in recent years concerning “emergent constraints” on equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in comprehensive global climate models (GCMs), of both the current (CMIP5)...

Climate Audit - 2018-03-11 - Original post - cached version

On June 2, 2016, in a major police operation in Russia, 50 hackers from the Lurk banking trojan gang were arrested following 86 raids (Security Week here). Their malware was used for bank fraud (especially in Russia) and ransomware all over the world. The full extent of their activities became...

Climate Audit - 2018-02-23 - Original post - cached version

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Climate Audit - 2018-02-05 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nic Lewis

Introduction and summary

Recently a new model-based paper on climate sensitivity was published by Kate Marvel, Gavin Schmidt (the head of NASA GISS) and others, titled ‘Internal variability and disequilibrium confound estimates of climate sensitivity from...

Climate Audit - 2017-12-23 - Original post - cached version

Introduction

I thank Patrick Brown for his detailed response (also here) to statistical issues that I raised in my critique “Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought” of his and Ken Caldeira’s recent paper (BC17).[1] The provision of more...

Climate Audit - 2017-12-18 - Original post - cached version

A recent paper Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy by JEFFREY A. HARVEY and 13 others has been creating somewhat of a stir in the blogosphere. The paper’s abstract purports to achieve the following:

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic...

Climate Audit - 2017-12-15 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nic Lewis

Introduction

Last week a paper predicting greater than expected global warming, by scientists Patrick Brown and Ken Caldeira, was published by Nature.[1]  The paper (henceforth referred to as BC17) says in its abstract:

“Across-model relationships...

Climate Audit - 2017-11-26 - Original post - cached version

In 2011, Andy Revkin wrote an article (archive) entitled “Straight Talk on Rising Seas in a Warming World” (among other articles on the topic), in which he optimistically sought guidance on the topic from a then recent study of U.S. East Coast sea level coauthored by Mann (Kemp et al, 2011).  ...

Climate Audit - 2017-11-21 - Original post - cached version

Stenni et al (2017), Antarctic climate variability on regional and continental scales over the last 2000 years, was published pdf this week by Climate of the Past.  It includes (multiple variations) of a new Antarctic temperature reconstruction, in which 112 d18O and dD isotope series are...

Climate Audit - 2017-11-18 - Original post - cached version

Two very different representations of consistency between models and observations are popularly circulated. On the one hand, John Christy and Roy Spencer have frequently shown a graphic which purports to show a marked discrepancy between models and observations in tropical mid-troposphere, while...

Climate Audit - 2017-10-10 - Original post - cached version

In his attribution of the DNC hack, Dmitri Alperovitch, of Crowdstrike and the Atlantic Council, linked APT28 (Fancy Bear) to previous hacks at TV5 Monde in France and of the Bundestag in Germany:

FANCY BEAR (also known as Sofacy or APT 28) is a separate Russian-based threat...

Climate Audit - 2017-10-06 - Original post - cached version

In Crowdstrike’s original announcement that “Russia” had hacked the DNC, Dmitri Alperovitch said, on the one hand, that the “tradecraft” of the hackers was “superb” and their “operational security second none” and, on the other hand, that Crowdstrike had “immediately identified” the “...

Climate Audit - 2017-10-02 - Original post - cached version

Within the small community conducting technical analysis of the DNC hack, there has been ongoing controversy over whether Guccifer 2 (G2) was a false flag for the Russians, whether G2 was located in the US rather than Russia, whether the G2 files were copied locally rather than hacked, whether...

Climate Audit - 2017-09-23 - Original post - cached version

The DHS-FBI intel assessment of the DNC hack concluded with “high confidence” that Guccifer 2 was a Russian operations, but provided (literally) zero evidence in support of their attribution.  Ever since Guccifer 2’s surprise appearance on June 15, 2016 (one day after Crowdstrike’s announcement...

Climate Audit - 2017-09-19 - Original post - cached version

One of the major differences between Mr FOIA and Guccifer 2 is the latter’s use of email to correspond to journalists.

G2 contacted Gawker and Smoking Gun on June 15, corresponding further with Smoking Gun on June 21 and June 27. He corresponded with Vocativ on July 4-5 and with the Hill...

Climate Audit - 2017-09-18 - Original post - cached version

In a recent post, I observed that the majority of the emails in the Wikileaks DNC archive were sent AFTER Crowdstrike installed their anti-Russian software on May 6.  In today’s post, I’ll look at a metadata issue concerning Guccifer 2, who was, with “high confidence”, attributed by the US intel...

Climate Audit - 2017-09-02 - Original post - cached version

Yesterday, Scott Ritter published a savage and thorough critique of the role of Dmitri Alperovitch and Crowdstrike, who are uniquely responsible for the attribution of the DNC hack to Russia. Ritter calls it “one of the greatest cons in modern American history”.  Ritter’s article gives a...

Climate Audit - 2017-07-29 - Original post - cached version

Julien Emile-Geay (JEG) submitted a lengthy comment concluding with the tasteless observation that “Steve’s mental health issues are beyond PAGES’s scope. Perhaps the CA tip jar pay for some therapy?”  – the sort of insult that is far too characteristic of activist climate science.  JEG seems to...

Climate Audit - 2017-07-22 - Original post - cached version

Arctic lake sediment series have been an important component of recent multiproxy studies.  These series have been discussed on many occasions at Climate Audit (tag), mostly very critical.  PAGES 2017 (and related Werner et al 2017) made some interesting changes to the Arctic lake sediment...

Climate Audit - 2017-07-12 - Original post - cached version

Rosanne D’Arrigo once explained to an astounded National Academy of Sciences panel that you had to pick cherries if you wanted to make cherry pie – a practice followed by D’Arrigo and Jacoby who, for their reconstructions, selected tree ring chronologies which went the “right” way and discarded...

Climate Audit - 2017-07-12 - Original post - cached version

Recently, there has been controversy over allegations that former FBI Director Comey leaked classified information, an issue that I mentioned on twitter  a month ago. The recent news-cycle began with a story in The Hill,  leading to a tweet by Trump, followed by a series of sneering “rebuttals”...

Climate Audit - 2017-07-08 - Original post - cached version
A guest post by Nic Lewis

A new paper in Science Advances by Cristian Proistosescu and Peter Huybers “Slow climate mode reconciles historical and model-based estimates of climate sensitivity” (hereafter PH17) claims that accounting for the decline in feedback strength over time that occurs in...

Climate Audit - 2017-06-19 - Original post - cached version
A guest article by Frank Bosse (posted by Nic Lewis)

A recent paper by the authors Stolpe, Medhaug and Knutti (thereafter S. 17) deals with a longstanding question: By how much are the Global Mean Surface Temperatures (GMST) influenced by the internal variability of the Atlantic (AMV/AMO) and...

Climate Audit - 2017-05-18 - Original post - cached version

A guest post by Nic Lewis

Introduction

Global surface temperature (GMST) changes and trends derived from the standard GISTEMP[1] record over its full 1880-2016 length exceed those per the HadCRUT4.5 and NOAA4.0.1 records, by 4% and 7% respectively.  Part of these differences will...

Climate Audit - 2016-11-19 - Original post - cached version

November 18 marks the centenary of the end of the Battle of the Somme, an event that passed essentially unnoticed, though it was a seminal event in the development of modern Canada. Its carnage was over 1.1 million casualties from a combined population (both sides) of about 170 million. (For a...

Climate Audit - 2016-11-04 - Original post - cached version

Despite extraordinarily intense coverage of all aspects of Hillary Clinton’s emails, all commentary to date (to my knowledge), even the underlying FBI Report, has paid little to no attention to the destruction of Huma Abedin’s emails, also stored on the Clinton server.  Further, even with the...

Climate Audit - 2016-08-31 - Original post - cached version
A guest post by Nic Lewis

Introduction

A recent PAGES 2k Consortium paper in Nature,[i] Abram et al., that claims human-induced, greenhouse gas driven warming commenced circa 180 years ago,[ii] has been attracting some attention. The study arrives at its start dates by using a change-...

Climate Audit - 2016-08-17 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, I’m going to re-examine (or more accurately, examine de novo) Ed Cook’s Mt Read (Tasmania) chronology, a chronology recently used in Gergis et al 2016, Esper et al 2016, as well as numerous multiproxy reconstructions over the past 20 years.

Gergis et al 2016  said that...

Climate Audit - 2016-08-14 - Original post - cached version

Jan Esper, prominent in early Climate Audit posts as an adamant serial non-archiver, has joined with 17 other tree ring specialists, to publish “Ranking of tree-ring based temperature reconstructions of the past millennium” (pdf). This assesses 39 long tree ring temperature reconstructions. The...

Climate Audit - 2016-08-03 - Original post - cached version

In today’s post, I’m going to examine Gergis’ dubious screening out of the Law Dome d18O series, a series that has been of long-standing interest at Climate Audit (tag).

Gergis et al 2016 stated that they screened proxies according to significance of the correlation to local gridcell...

Climate Audit - 2016-07-22 - Original post - cached version

In 2012, the then much ballyhoo-ed Australian temperature reconstruction of Gergis et al 2012 mysteriously disappeared from Journal of Climate after being criticized at Climate Audit. Now, more than four years later, a successor article has finally been published. Gergis says that the only...

Climate Audit - 2016-07-21 - Original post - cached version

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Climate Audit - 2016-07-12 - Original post - cached version
A guest post by Nic Lewis

 

Introduction and Summary

In a recently published paper (REA16),[1] Mark Richardson et al. claim that recent observation-based energy budget estimates of the Earth’s transient climate response (TCR) are biased substantially low, with the true value some...

Climate Audit - 2016-06-07 - Original post - cached version

I’ve submitted an article entitled “New Light on Deflategate: Critical Technical Errors” pdf to Journal of Sports Analytics. It identifies and analyzes a previously unnoticed scientific error in the technical analysis included in the Wells Report on Deflategate. The article shows precisely how...

Climate Audit - 2016-05-06 - Original post - cached version

In my most recent post,  I discussed yet another incident in the long running dispute about the inconsistency between models and observations in the tropical troposphere – Gavin Schmidt’s twitter mugging of John Christy and Judy Curry.   Included in Schmidt’s exchange with Curry was a diagram...

Climate Audit - 2016-04-19 - Original post - cached version

In the past few weeks, I’ve been re-examining the long-standing dispute over the discrepancy between models and observations in the tropical troposphere.  My interest was prompted in part by Gavin Schmidt’s recent attack on a graphic used by John Christy in numerous presentations (see recent ...

Climate Audit - 2016-03-21 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nic Lewis

Introduction

In a recent article I discussed Bayesian parameter inference in the context of radiocarbon dating. I compared Subjective Bayesian methodology based on a known probability distribution, from which one or more values were drawn at random,...

Climate Audit - 2016-03-12 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nic Lewis

I reported in a previous post, here, a number of serious problems that I had identified in Marvel et al. (2015): Implications for climate sensitivity from the response to individual forcings. This Nature Climate Change paper concluded, based purely on...

Climate Audit - 2016-03-02 - Original post - cached version

A guest article by Nic Lewis

Introduction

In April 2014 I published a guest article about statistical methods applicable to radiocarbon dating, which criticised existing Bayesian approaches to the problem. A standard – subjective Bayesian – method of inference about the true calendar age...

Climate Audit - 2016-02-27 - Original post - cached version

Gerry Browning writes:

The Correct System of Equations for Climate and Weather Models

The system of equations numerically approximated by both weather and climate models is called the hydrostatic system. Using a scale analysis for mid-latitude large scale motions in the...

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